This is a BUY tip from Tom Winnifrith...

Sorry if this is rather boring as the market cap is now c 350 million but at 470p Avanti Communications (AVN) - a stock held in the SF t1ps Growth Fund - is really very cheap whichever way you look at it. It is now funded to launch 3 satellites into space ( and fully insured if the worst happens which will only delay the programme by 6 months anyway). You value Avanti by discounting back the net cashflows these satellites will generate. That depends on how much capacity is sold and at what price. Use a model based on very conservative assumptions and this stock is worth 13 ( the lowest valuation in the market). But that model uses assumptions about sales prices which are already being beaten by forward sales Avanti is booking today. Use those prices and you head up to the 22.50 value of house broker Cenkos. My own view is that Avanti will do better still and this stock could therefore be worth 25. Exc itement will mount as the first satellite is launched later this year. Remember those valuations are the Net Present Value of future cashflows ( i.e. what they are worth today). If you can buy at under 600p ( as you can now) you should do so and sit back and wait. I suspect after HYLAS 1 is launched you will never again be able to buy at less than 600p.

Rumor isEvil is out? No proof.. so Dyor Cyniclooks like EK has come out of this as a bit of a dick....I bought just short of my other half back yesterday

3 Monkiesyou could do worse..

I still don't get this. This is from the AVN website:-

"Do you live in a broadband notspot? Are you so far away from your local exchange that your DSL access speeds are low? If so, Avanti satellite broadband can help you.

Avanti satellite broadband is sold and delivered through our pan-European partner network. But you can register your interest in receiving Avanti satellite broadband products with us. Once HYLAS 1 completes its testing phase, we will get your local partner to contact you to discuss how they can help you. It's that simple.

There is no obligation to buy, and you can also enter our competition to win a year's free broadband."


To me, the important thing here is :- "Avanti satellite broadband is sold and delivered through our pan-European partner network."

How much is AVN going to get out of their technology? I appreciate what Tabby has posted and I don't intend to talk this share down but unless AVN sell to individuals rather than 'partners' I cannot see how they can maximise their potential. It maybe of course, that they have a different selling strategy for Hylas 2.

Whatever, I am baffled and am torn between re-investing or leaving well alone. My heart says the former, my head the latter.

Uncorked my favourite red to do a bit of musing. :o)

Those directors should have waited a bit longer before they bought

Jeff.That chart will be looking slightly different in a couple of hourslol

Completion of In Orbit Testing and Service Launch
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TIDMAVN

RNS Number : 9311C

Avanti Communications Group Plc

15 March 2011

Date: 15 March 2011

On behalf of: Avanti Communications Group plc ("Avanti" or "the Company")

Embargoed until: 0700hrs

Avanti Communications Group plc

-- Completion of In Orbit Testing and Service Launch

-- Contract Win

Avanti Communications Group plc (LSE: AIM), the broadband satellite operator, is pleased to report that it formally completed in orbit testing of the HYLAS 1 satellite yesterday.

The testing process confirmed that HYLAS 1 is working in conformance with specification and, in some areas, delivering higher performance than originally specified. The satellite lifetime is expected to be at least six months greater than planned and the available power is several percentage points better than specification. This will translate into improved service quality, flexibility and usable capacity.

The provision of services on HYLAS 1 will now commence. The first live customer service in the UK will be installed next week. Avanti has a test customer base of 5,000 end users whose service is delivered with leased Ku band capacity. The migration of these customers to HYLAS 1 will begin on April 4(th) . Avanti has over 60 Virtual Network Operator customers in 16 countries in Europe who have bought capacity. Many of them are also migrating existing end user customers from leased Ku band capacity on other satellites and this migration also begins on April 4(th) .

Commenting, David Williams, Chief Executive of Avanti Communications, said:

"The in orbit testing phase of HYLAS 1 has been a complete success and puts us in a strong position for future growth.

"With Europe's first fully operational broadband satellite, Avanti will now provide a range of satellite data communications services to consumers, enterprise and governmental organisations across the UK and Europe. In such a vast market with so much growth in data demand, and a strong customer base already committed, we are highly confident of achieving rapid commercial success for this powerful and flexible satellite."

Contract Win

Avanti is also pleased to announce that yesterday it signed a seven year contract with a new Virtual Network Operator Customer for the sale of 80 Mb of capacity (with volume beginning at a lower level in year one and rising to 80Mb to match the Customer's expansion in end users). The contract, which commands pricing which exceeds market expectations, is worth EUR7.1m over the seven year term. The customer has approximately 3,000 satellite broadband end user installations in Europe which currently use Ku band capacity on a competitors' satellite. The Customer will migrate that existing client base to HYLAS 1 and then grow its business further with Avanti. For reasons of commercial sensitivity during this migration period the Customer is not named.

Commenting on the contract win, David Williams, Chief Executive of Avanti Communications, said:

"The signing of this contract is significant since it further demonstrates that expert customers in Europe choose to work with Avanti. We offer a flexible, service oriented approach and reliable and well regarded technology. Avanti has announced a steady flow of contract wins in the last two years which underpins our confidence in fully utilising our satellites at attractive prices."

--ENDS--

I just put some money in my pocket and got my kicks for free...this went down to 4-10 on the mornings fantastic RNS...a bright light on a dark day...the MMs have chalked some mad prices in their time...this ranks with the very best of the boopers... like shopping at Harrods and paying Aldi prices...

16 March 2011

Avanti Communications Group plc

("the Company")

Directors Shareholdings

Avanti Communications Group plc (AIM: AVN), the broadband satellite operator, was informed last night, 15 March 2011, by David Williams, Chief Executive, that he had purchased 11,895 ordinary shares in the Company at a price of 416 pence per ordinary share. David Williams now holds a total direct and indirect voting right interest in 1,536,967 ordinary shares in the Company, being approximately 1.9% of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company. Mr Williams has a further revocable and indirect interest in 522,233 ordinary shares under the Company's Long Term Incentive Plan which are subject to certain criteria.

--ENDS---

what a very strange stock ..... i got in and out this morning, selling at 475.75 .... the odd thing is that, even on L2, there were no bids showing higher that about 467.5 at the time

Just gone long. Talk of Evil K ditching his short on clarification of charging policy.....

as per broker note below just out.


http://www.equitydevelopment.com/downloader/816

Buyers coming in now on the back of the broker note.

Broker coverage from hemscott premium

Avanti Communications Group PLC

FORECASTS WIRES 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Daniel Stewart
21-03-11 BUY -12.60 -12.50 3.30 3.70
Investec Securities
16-03-11 SELL -13.64 -15.60 -31.95 -35.92
Cenkos Securities
15-03-11 BUY -12.70 6.80 8.00
Eden Group
04-03-11 BUY
Growth Equity & Co Research
02-02-11 SBUY -12.70 -15.75 3.30 3.35
Equity Development
10-01-11 None -12.60 -15.10 6.30 7.50

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus -12.87 -14.66 -3.40 -3.75
1 Month Change -0.22 -0.33 -8.26 -9.31
3 Month Change -8.03 -18.46 -8.72 -10.02


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)
Norm. EPS % % %
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA -1.65m -8.38m 9.93m
EBIT -2.42m m m
Dividend Yield 0.00% % %
Dividend Cover x x x
PER -124.31x -30.62x -119.67x
PEG f f f
Net Asset Value PS 216.93p p p

not much biz at all in this stock, let alone buying .... however, when it moves it often does so in a rush

Yep noticed that myself, and U can bet your bottom dollar winnie is writing out a note now with the broker note attached showing how is side kick Evil is wrong. I think of everything cyners LOL. (winnies fund is long and as been buying on the fall)

thought about buying these (again) but decided too greedy on margin as i am pretty much as fully invested as i would like at the moment ..... bought a few more BLNX however

Yes looked at them this weekend.

Tabby does Tom Winnifrith ever invest any of his own money in "his" portfolio as he never used to ?

And call me cynical but didn't EK write for T!ps ..... hmmmmmmmm !!!!

Winnifrith (imo) don't know his arse from his elbow and his "tips"(again imo) that his mates are involved with (wasn't Colin (Blackbourne?) his best mate when he was ramping MMD) should be treated with extreme caution.

He does these days Dil, yes.

Told you cyners...........

Here's Tom Winnifriths latest thoughts on Avanti....

Over the past couple of weeks the market valuation of Avanti Communication - a stock which we still believe to be worth 20 - has taken a material knock following some derisory commentary from some well known Shorters. Without doubt the persons in question have made a number of good calls in the past but this truly is a blunder. His argument (supplied by what we reckon is the Analyst who recently put out a Sell recommendation on the stock) is based upon numerous factual errors and poorly researched content. Mr Knievil also appears to have a few problems with decimal points.It has been posted around on a number of Bulletin Boards and has meant that the company's market cap has tumbled from roughly 514.2 million, to 405 million in a matter of days.

We however read the above's comments with amazement and the fact that we actually do our own research meant we were happy to take advantage of the opportunity that was given to us and added to our holdings. We were not the only ones. On 23 February 2011 in accordance with listed companies's continuing obligations it was announced that the company Chairman and CEO had between them hovered up 150,000 worth of shares at a price of roughly 550p. On 25th February directors moved in again with six figure purchases.

The bear argument was based around the fact that Avanti will missed its earnings forecasts and will not be able to compete with the what the above believed to be greater capacity offered by a competitor, EUTELSAT. It seems the Analyst behind this poorly constructed argument got his decimal point in the wrong place stating the EUT's capacity was 23 times that of Avanti's instead of actually roughly 2.3 times taking into account both HYLAS 1 and 2 (the above failed to recognised this). Regardless of this however more is not always better in regards to broadband capacity, and a comparable example in the US shows that Avanti's increased flexibility of application and broader coverage will materially pay off in the long run. Raw capacity lost out to product innovation in the US when Hughes Communications was sold for a markedly higher price than that of its competitor Wild Blue. In actual fact Wild Blue's product offering is pretty similar to that of EUT.

It is however disappointing that poorly constructed arguments can have such an influence on market valuations. This however is an example of the short term and volatile aspects of investment, and is exactly why we do not focus on the short term price movements of our portfolio. What we do is identify value, buy at sensible prices and then hold. As we have said numerous times before on a very simple DCF basis we reckon that Avanti is worth 20 per share. We are not alone in this belief and although we pay little attention to outside analyst coverage all bar one of the current notes rate Avanti as a strong buy operating within in a rapidly developing sector. Interims for the 6 months ended 31 December 2010 were not indicative of the company's progression but they did report that the current order book stands at 229 million and that currently the pipeline of HYLAS 1 and 2 transactions is valued at 389 million.

Increasingly once Avanti moves into full commercial service operations, which is expected shortly, we are expecting an influx of more news detailing further big name sign ups to the service. The company is operating within a niche market with extremely high barriers to entry and limited price competitiveness and has already won serious institutional backing. We expect that demand for the company's service will be consistently increased due to the flexible applications of the product offering which differentiates the company from its competitors. It is admittedly disappointing that such poorly backed arguments can have this sort of impact on the share price, but what we do believe is that the value here will even
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It seems the Analyst behind this poorly constructed argument got his decimal point in the wrong place stating the EUT's capacity was 23 times that of Avanti's instead of actually roughly 2.3 times