http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

i don't need to .... had a very good day yesterday to round off an excellent week, where i bought a bit, sold a bit and BANKED some very juicy profits indeed ...... stinker stock remains PXS (dumb buy a couple of months back) and WOS which i shorted with typical bad timing, thinking the market was going to tumble (no doubt there'lll be a sharp correction, probably just after i've bitten the bullet!)

Excellent article Marky...thanks....no doubt Rockhopper have hit the jackpot.....appraisal wells now needed I would think to find out the extent of the field, but first Desire will probably have the rig for these next 3 slots I would think.....so a lull in activities for a bit before a spring drilling campaign gets underway.....they need to test the next well a lot longer....

Re the testing equipment. As I read it they thought that the equipment they had requested would be sufficient for the job, so did not feel they required the more expensive stuff. Hindsight is indeed a wonderful thing.
Several oil experts today have forecast the Bent Oil price to reach between 100$ and 150$ within the next two years, even if the recession bites badly, making the production of oil a more viable project. Some are forecasting the return to the 70's type spike. Due to this the UK government has asked officials to look at the effect such a price increase would have on the UK economy.
As to the continuing mention of the cost to Rockhopper in connection with any production costs, remember they are an exploration company and will stay as such unless anyone has info to the contrary.
The FI fields will 'NOT' be another bubble. I am sure the major oilies are watching and waiting, and when the fields re a bit more developed, or/and the results are more finalized, they will be forming a queue at the door.
It will be like an auction where everyone wants to buy.

Marky...... Yes good post, but can you clarify the comment re the well pressure of 120 psi (appreciate that is probably just me) but can you clarify that that is the minimum pressure and that with adjustment, IE the choke system it can be higher.

Regards Greek.

The FT Article :

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8b38f5b0-c805-11df-ae3a-00144feab49a.html


Caution advisable over soaring small-cap oil explorers

By Neil Hume

Published: September 24 2010 20:02 | Last updated: September 24 2010 20:02

Is a bubble developing in small-cap oil exploration stocks, or is the dizzying rise in share prices justified? And can it continue?

Those are questions being asked around the Square Mile as the market value of several explorers has soared (in some cases to as high as 1bn) even though the companies in question have yet to turn a profit or even ship a single barrel of oil.

While the big, integrated oil companies might be out of favour at the moment, the same cannot be said of the 100 or so explorers listed on Aim and the main market. The Aim Oil & Gas index has risen 32 per cent this year, outperforming the broader Aim index by 12 per cent and the FTSE 100 by 29 per cent.

A number of big exploration successes, in a packed drilling calendar, have focused investor attention on the sector. The North Sea has enjoyed something of a renaissance in the wake of two big discoveries: Catcher and Cladhan, which analysts estimate could have recoverable reserves of 60m-100m and 70m-90m barrels of oil respectively. A discovery called Sea Lion has also been made off the coast of the Falkland Islands that analysts believe could contain recoverable reserves of about 240m barrels.

It is these discoveries that have propelled share prices higher. Encore, which has interests in both the Catcher and Cladhan prospects, has risen more than 600 per cent this year while Nautical Petroleum, which has a stake in Catcher, has climbed by a similar amount. Rockhopper Exploration, holder of the Sea Lion licence, has surged 700 per cent and is now valued at almost 1bn.

But for every success there have also been failures and dry wells. Shares in Sterling Energy slumped this week after tests at its Sangaw well showed gas flows had quickly been replaced by water. Desire Petroleum, another Falklands explorer, failed to find oil at its first well.

It is important to put this years successes in perspective and also to remember that this has been an unusually busy year for drilling, as projects delayed by the credit crisis finally went ahead. There are more to come, too. The large Anne-Marie prospect, to the west of Shetland, is being drilled.

As such, it was always possible there would be a number of big discoveries. But statistically, given the large sample size, success rates have not dramatically improved. In other words, oil has not got easier to find.

Investors seem increasingly to have been blinded by these few big successes.

Consider Desire Petroleum. Even though it has found no oil, the company is still valued at 500m and its shares are up 70 per cent. To justify that valuation Desire needs to find 150m barrels of oil at its other Falkland wells. Similarly, Borders & Southern, which is searching for oil in the deep waters to the south-east of the Falklands, is valued at nearly 400m. Yet it has still to even secure a drilling rig.

These valuations seem bizarre when compared with some of the more mature, diversified explorers that also produce oil. Indeed, one reason why Dana Petroleum fell to a hostile 1.2bn bid from Koreas state oil company is because investors were not prepared to ascribe much value to its exploration programme.

It should not be forgotten that small-cap oil stocks are still a geared play on the oil price. As long as the crude price remains between $60-$80 a barrel, exploration projects remain financially viable. Below that level the sums simply dont add up in many cases.

However, the fact that share prices are starting to run ahead of themselves is unlikely to worry most investors. After all, exploration stocks are one of the few areas of the stock market where you can make six or seven times your money in a relatively short period of time. Indeed, there is a good argument that every portfolio should contain one or two of these spicy jalapes.

But investors need to choose carefully. Analysts reckon there are only 30 small-cap explorers worth looking at; the rest are unlikely to find oil or even turn a profit. And those that will, such as the North Sea plays, are looking increasingly fairly valued.

No list of the 30 small-cap's then ?

Greek,
My take on it is the waxing on the riser was acting
as a choke, restricting the flow. I can"t recall a
static head of pressure (at the wellhead) mentioned with no flow.

Thanks Tyketto, obliged.

The Company is continuing to evaluate the information acquired during its successful drilling and testing of the Sea Lion prospect, in order to plan the next phase in proving the reserves discovered, as well as participating in a number of wells on licences PL003 and PL004 (Rockhopper: 7.5% working interest), which are operated by Desire Petroleum.

More of the same below with an interesting final comment

Rockhopper plans next move after Sea Lion 1
Date: Monday 27 Sep 2010

LONDON (ShareCast) - North Falkland Basin oil and gas explorer Rockhopper confirmed today it has plugged and abandoned the Sea Lion 1 well while it pores over the drill and test results.

Sea Lion 1, the first oil discovery in the area, said it now has to look at the data and plan the next phase in proving the reserves discovered.

It is also participating in a number of wells on Desire Petroleum-operated licences PL003 and PL004 in which it has a 7.5% working interest.

The 1bn company, which only floated on AIM five years ago, said last week that flow tests on Sea Lion 1 might have been twice the 2,000 barrels a day recorded had it not been for a technical glitch.

Analysts at broker Westhouse arent too worried though. They think theres nothing in the results which cannot be mitigated by engineering solutions, albeit at additional cost.

delete

Got a few more at 4.77.....am a happy chappy thanks to Argos

markymar

Maybe you are not alone on buying a few more, but the spikes down is because is ( short term going down ) called it profit taking, call it retracement but is a trend.....


From another RKH thread, but guest who it is, all start with ........P


Pro_S2009 - 27 Sep'10 - 08:41 - 10152 of 10164

Thats why fully paid for stock is so relaxing :)

I care not where the price goes, but if it gets cheap I buy more :) !!

It was cheap at 491p and 494p for some last Friday, but today it was cheaper.

I can see 465 / 470p as a good support at the moment but if it breaks down, it could well go well down

Might drop by 20p......just guesswork as to which way it will go....

On a knife's edge as to whether it will hold at this level or 450p could be the bottom...I doubt if it would go below that....but who knows ?....

looks like profit taking, today's news not particularly stimulating, could go lower.

This looks very dangerous now... 478p now.

It was always likely after the latest big rises that there would be an element of profit taking and that is what we have here. Just where the price will stabilise is anyone's guess but I hope it is not way down at the 325 level! Whether rf is correct in the 450 bottom - that would be Ok and possibly a good time to top up with a few more.
Now just got to wait for DES to report on the results of its drilling operations.
TT

They haven't spudded yet....

Anthing more than this...and big buyers could step in .....all the way down from 540p to now 473p....quite a drop...