AFL FJARFESTINGARFELAG HAS BUILT UP A 17% HOLDING.

I'm still in this and feeling the pain. My worst trade of the year by a long way and there seems no end in sight of the sellers.

I added at 20p but even that proved a problem as it's lost 5p in just a few days.

The sellers just keep coming and coming.

The thing is I bought this as it has no exposure to Brexit....

Ouch.

They have quite a large debt, but it's well below the current t/o. Nevertheless reading the RNS, it looks like Trading isn't as good as they'd hope and maybe a reduced dividend is almost certain ( at least something?).... so forget the notional yield of 19% caused by the sp falling from 50p to 15p ( -ish). Maybe a yield of about 4% would be reasonable, if this can prevent Fundraising - the fall in sp has been gradual, whereas if "sharp" I'd expect some folks already know what's about. At these levels, any Placing would have to be 12p-ish.... so maybe wait a while before "Topping-up" = Av Dn. - - - - Today sp=17p
Oh deary.....
AND - Can't Moderators remove this "Iceland" - Heading, for 2019.?

IC says :- Ann:30Jan"19. LWB raising £54m @15p. Mkt price 18p1...due to "challenging period" due in part to huge rise in raw material costs (that's Oil, I guess ), If shareholder don't participate, they will be diluted by 41%
-That strikes me a really bad.... if their finances are so poor (don't competing products rise the same?), it is likely this won't be the last tug on shareholders . . . and I recall that any "Open Offer" really means the City doesn't want to know ! . . . So, maybe, I'll hold back too...that way it cash-costs nowt.?
EDIT (9Feb2019)-Thanks CC - FWIW I doubt LWB Execs will do much with that £50m - much the same as they've done since Dubai move. Also, if things don't improve, that 15p OO may be a tad too high. The discount is too low - and the Qty is too high, er IMHO.

I have some of these. Or at least I did until a few days ago where I sold them all.

I suspect the reason for the OO is that some of the larger shareholders (Sterling) simply don't want to fully take part in a RI. I'm with them on that. I've lost enough on this and certainly didn't want to invest any more.

However, LWB are going to get £50m out of this so that's an extra £50m on the balance sheet which is worth something. £50m enables them to do something rather than thing just dragging on forever.

Now, the price of oil and therefore polymer resin has fallen dramatically since November which should mean LWB is in a good place right now with regard to EBITDA. They didn't mention this in the OO statement which I didn't like.


So, initially I sold most of my holdings at 16.5p and decided I had had enough. This share was mucking up my headspace, absorbing too much of my time and although I think it is due a relief rally I'd just had enough. There are 2000 other shares out there and surely I can find something better. I then last the last bit go at 18p and those I plan to buy back at 15p in the OO. I need to keep these few as they will help to reduce next years capital gains tax bill.

I now have the choice to buy back the shares I sold at 16.5p at 15p. I think... this makes sense in that I believe the share price will stabilise above 15p and I can then sell them again at say 17p. A quick in and out for a few quid. On the other hand I'm so fed up with this share I'm not sure I want to. I certainly don't have a good rationale for buying this share now and wish I had realised this earlier. Maybe I will just let the OO pass and move one.



In so far as I'm not taking up the OO and continuing to hold my existing shares I'm going to get diluted to hell (or already have been)