.

chucky(aka cynics lapdog) its the first time i've posted on this thread where i'm NOT an holder(i don't make an habbit of it)... Unlike some tw** named "chuckles the lapdog" the persistent troll of threads he dos'nt hold shares in.....

As I said I'm not holding my breath for anything approaching useful from the poodle, just about choked myself laughing at the last contribution roflmao :)

Hi Guy's........Seriously thinking of buying into this share; well oversold I feel; profit takers,MM's and shorters doing what they are good at.

Anyways, I read the following post on another BB, which I feel is a very good summery for the share and moving forward, all IMO of course.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I think your idea that a farm out could be 50% of the Bentley asset is way too pessimistic in my opinion. Let me explain…

A broker’s analyst report revealed back in April this year that Xcite needed to raise in the order to $310m to fund the next phase (1B) of the development. This was at the time Xcite revealed their development strategy.

In June Xcite announced they succeeded in securing an RBL facility from a consortium of banks and institutions to the tune of exactly half of what they need.

So the present funding gap for phase 1B is in the region of $155m.

Xcite have hinted via SK that they will put a Bentley farm-in out to tender around November time.

Let’s assume the farm-in partner agrees to the same development strategy revealed by Xcite earlier in the year. Roughly this would mean that whatever slice of the Bentley pie is retained by Xcite, only that portion has to be funded.

If the farm-in was 50% then Xcite would be required to fund 50% of the costs (about $155m) to develop Bentley to the stage where it reaches self-financing production.

Let’s be really, really pessimistic and assume no upgrade in the reserves is achieved.

The fully assessed core of the Bentley field currently has 116 million 2P reserves. The 50% farm-in partner would pay Xcite for 58 million barrels. Figures of $10 to $20 per barrel have been mentioned on here quite frequently but staying incredibly pessimistic and assuming only $8 per barrel was agreed that would equate to $464 million in cash to Xcite. It would mean Xcite would have more than $300m surplus cash after setting aside the $155m to fund their half of the next phase. The RBL wouldn’t even be required!

This must surely demonstrate that a 50% farm-in suggestion is complete nonsense.

Even on the same pessimistic figures used above a 15% farm out would do it:

15% of 116m 2P = 17.4m barrels at 8$/barrel = $139.2m cash raised

$139.2m cash + $155m RBL = $294.2m cash available to fund Bentley

Cost to fund 85% of Bentley = $310m x 85% = $263.5m…

It seems to me, that when you start plugging in numbers taking account of upgraded reserves and improved recovery via EOR plus a decent price per barrel of oil, Xcite could realistically farm out less than 15% of Bentley quite easily.

In fact if these improved reserves figures are really good, I don’t believe it would be an impossible feat to ask for double the current RBL facility and go it alone with 100% of the Bentley asset. It’s unlikely but not impossible.

I say the farm out option is highly likely and going to be somewhere between 10 and 15% of the Bentley asset.

In the long run this should mean Xcite when in full production should be able to raise their SP to something well in excess of £4 per share and rising… easily.

The farm-in partner is going to go to the highest bidder and I’m pretty damn sure they are going to be bidding way higher than $8/barrel… $15 would be more like it.
Thank you to Phil for the above script……….Good read and analysis, imho. My finger is on the button to buy into this share now!

have scanned through the above, and it is rather MrP in content - all hypothesis and similar .....

nevertheless, it is indisputable that XEL have a commercial field on their hands, albeit that is unsexy heavy crude which is not only more expensive to extract, but also less efficient in terms of % recoverable (improving as technology improves), and also more expensive to refine and therefore sells at quite a discount to light crude (can't remember how much)

Fine with me marky.

I am quite happy to divorce this one in the near future with a takeover.

Down again today, but good support at 100p. Presumably the weakness is tracking the downward trend of the price of crude?

8% rise, nice to see it kept though ?

Good steady buying today

Hope it continues......so many small oilies are undervalued....

XEL on the rumble again ..... perhaps worth watching the volume; i think it was heavy yesterday and looking that way today .... 3 month average is just over 6m

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201210150700066497O

Suspension of 9/3b-7 and 7Z wells and rig off hire on Bentley Field


Xcite Energy is pleased to announce the safe and successful conclusion of the Phase 1A offshore work programme, with the Rowan Norway drilling rig having been demobilised and handed back to Rowan Companies Inc.

The 9/3b-7 and 7Z wells were successfully suspended for future use as production wells during Phase 1B. The Scott Spirit and shuttle tanker are now off hire and the offtake pipelines have been safely recovered.


Commenting on the conclusion of the Phase 1A programme, Rupert Cole, CEO, said:


"On behalf of the Xcite Energy team, I would like to thank everyone involved in Phase 1A for their contribution to the safe and very successful conclusion of the work programme. We look forward to progressing towards Phase 1B."

on the turning today from earlier on and now holding around the 106p

up dated broker note


http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/researchreports/Xciteupdate171012.pdf

Xcite Energy says new licences are part of a strategy for growth
3:16 pm by Jamie Ashcroft Xcite will explore the new prospects over an initial four year licence term, on a ‘drill or drop’ basis. Xcite Energy (LON:XEL, CVE:XEL) has confirmed it is expanding its North Sea portfolio.

The company has been awarded additional acreage, containing four significant prospects, through the UK’s 27th offshore licensing round.

It will explore the new prospects over an initial four year licence term, on a ‘drill or drop’ basis.

The company says the additional acreage enhances the development potential of the greater Bentley area, and it is part of the company’s strategy for growth.

"The offer of these Blocks is a welcome expansion of the Xcite portfolio,” chief executive Rupert Cole said in a statement.

"Whilst we remain focused on the development of the Bentley field, these additions clearly demonstrate our intent to grow Xcite into a significant North Sea player."

This expansion comes as the development of the Bentley oilfield moves to a crucial stage. The company recently completed the Phase 1A programme and it is now preparing to embark upon the next phase which will kick-start commercial oil production.

Xcite Energy a ‘compelling opportunity’, says Liberum Capital
12:10 pm by Jamie AshcroftTwo weeks ago Xcite completed the first part of its development programme for the oil field, which comprised a number of production tests

Xcite Energy (LON:XEL, CVE:XEL) offers a compelling opportunity for investors to access rare heavy oil expertise, says City broker Liberum.

It is currently on the cusp of developing the Bentley heavy oil field in the North Sea, with first production possibly coming next year.

Two weeks ago Xcite completed the first part of its development programme for the oil field, which comprised a number of production tests designed to gain an insight into the field’s longer term production profile.

It was a significant milestone the field’s development that moved Xcite closer to securing remaining project finance, which should in turn lead to approval from the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC).

And it will mark the end of a period of perceived uncertainty for investors, according to Liberum analyst Andrew Whittock.

Highlighting the significant volatility in the shares over the last two years, Whittock says there were legitimate concerns over the value of the Bentley driven by the perceived difficulty, cost and technical issues associated with heavy oil.

But he now believes there should now be greater confidence in the commerciality of the field following the recently completed testing programme, as well as the initial financing arrangements that have been put in place – which includes a $155 mln reserves based loan (RBL) from a banking consortium.

“The due diligence undertaken by the banks will have included a thorough assessment of technical risks and the offer of a debt facility demonstrated confidence in the project’s long term viability,” Whittock said in a note.

“We believe the recent extended well test should have addressed any residual concerns and anticipate this will be confirmed by the unconditional availability of RBL funds, expected to be announced early next year.”

As such Whittock believes the investment case has been de-risked and there is significant upside in the share price.

In today’s initiating note the Liberum analyst rated the North Sea firm as a ‘buy’ and set a 242p a share price target – which is some 135% more than the current price of 102p.

Looking forward the Liberum analyst reckons there will be significant potential further upside too as Xcite upgrades its reserves further as the field development advances.

And while he says that some funding concerns may remain through part of next year Xcite will be able to secure the necessary capital.

“We believe that between debt markets, industry partners and equity markets there is little doubt the financing can be raised. The only question is, given markets at that time, which source(s) can provide best value for shareholders.”

Whittock is expecting a series of positive updates from Xcite in the first half of next year – including an updated CPR, the DECC approval of the development plan and news of possible industry partnerships.

“These should provide the catalysts to move the share price closer to our value of 2P reserves (estimated at 246p) and, when the development of Bentley is clear, the experience of the team can move to focus on the next opportunity.”

The addition of new projects through the UK's 27th licensing round privided a hint of the new opportunities that Xcite is now also pursuing as it attempts to grow Xcite into a significant North Sea player

Results for the Periods Ended 30 September 2012

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4481156

http://www.iii.co.uk/tv/episode/outlook-xcite-energy-xel

Nice little rise in a poor market today.