.

Shorts situation was that 50K of shorts closed yesterday.

Yesterday opening with 900K of stock on loan.

Yesterday closed with 850K of stock on loan.


This week, 200K closed on Monday, 350K closed Tuesday and 50K closed Wednesday.


As for me, I still expect news next Mon or Tue or Wed....... no rush :)

If you read the EIS document they say they will :

Drill up to 8 appraisal wells.

Flow test up to 4 of the those 8 wells.

Plug and abandon all 8 wells.


Its very clear up to 50% of the wells will be flow tested, but 100% of them will be P&A. This programme is to prove the size of the massive Sea Lion :)

EIS link here : http://www.mediafire.com/?l067cfjalxx7gii

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a/ Poor news would be very little net pay and a high up OWC.

b/ Good news would be circa 35 metres of net pay and a low down Oil Water Contact (OWC) point.

c/ Superb news would be 35 metres or more of net pay and a low down OWC.

d/ Fantastic news would be 35 metres or more of net pay and no OWC found.

e/ Dream land would be 35 metres or more of net pay, no OWC and also a new lower down fan containing oil.

Therefore -


1/ I am expecting Sea Lion Main fan to be good with similar net pay to 14-10/2

2/ I am expecting no oil water contact point to be found. (Yippee)

3/ I am expecting Sea Lion lower to be thin at this point, due to extreme edge location, so a little net pay if any but not a lot, not the same as 14-10/2)

4/I am expecting something "new" to be found under Sea Lion lower.


So my expectation is something in Dream Land, but then I have rose tinted specs on :) and I am not going to be disappointed even with just good news :) !!


The present share price reflects "Bad News" and so, if anything good comes in then it will rerate upwards rather sharpish.

I should say ref Sea Lion Lower to explain why I am not expecting too much on that, this drill appears pretty much on the edge, so we should be looking at only thin net pay if any for that, refer to page 24 of the Volumetric Assessment ( http://www.mediafire.com/?z4pkvs9dd6l16b7 ) . To test Sea Lion lower the appraisal needs to be due west of 14-10/2 plum centre of the structure.

Given this location if they have entered Sea Lion Lower I would expect 2m to 5m net pay - maximum if any at all. They might even miss SL lower. The thicker net pay for Sea Lion Lower should all be westwards and will be tested by a westerly appraisal.

Any news anybody ?.....what's our man in Port Stanley got to say ?.....crates of beer heading for the rig ?....or pouring flat bubbly over the side ?....

just a lot of waffle as usual.,.

On Line Limits :


MAX Buy = 1K @ 218.5p

MAX Sell = 50K @ 215p


I think someone is buying in the background...... looks to me like they want to shake all the PI's out and horde the shares among the big boys.

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225K of shorts closed yesterday.

Opened yesterday with 850K stock on loan,

Closed yesterday with 625K stock on loan.


So this week its 200K closed Monday, 350K on Tuesday, 50K on Wednesday and now 225K yesterday.

If you can sell 50K, 100K - then why is the seller not selling ? and why can the PI only buy 1K of shares ?

Tells you someone is trying to keep a lid on the price and scare PI's into selling, that is all this drop down to 200p has been about, clearing out the shareholder register of all the small PI's.

When money is to be made, the big boys want it all - and they will try to kick out the small boys.

Just a point - if you go from spud to completion of suspension - Sea Lion discovery was 35 days rig hire.

Monday is 30 days rig hire.

IF they did not want to make the 7" pizza until after markets close, as far too many people would know it was being used - then they might start work on it in around 10 minutes time.

pp keep ramping.

P - a "buying limit" of only 1000 shares is/was a load of absolute tosh .... RKH is a full SETS stock and was liquid throughout the day in all sorts of sizes and prices

cynic pp must be dealing through his piggy bank.

I always have serious doubts about anyone who argues with themselves!

cynic, what did I say ? I said "On Line Limit" which means during the day on line trading through the main PI sites (H/ST/TDW etc.) had a limit of 1K of shares. You could buy no more but could sell 50K (and at times 100K shares).

What the big boys do through SETS with direct market access is a different thing, the point was PI's were being restricted to maximum buy of 1K but could sell up to 100K.

:)

Post by Stu over at III.


When the RNS eventually comes we simply need to confirm the depth of the OWC for the main Sea Lion fan.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SIDESHOW. EVERYTHING.

If this well encounters water saturated sands where the Sea Lion main fan should be, as was the case in 14/10-3, then I'm afraid it's the news we are all dreading.
And the SP is going to take the beating off it's life.

==========================================
Watery Nightmare



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However, if the well encounters the Sea Lion fan and it's oil, then great. We're looking for an oil water contact that is below 2,500m. Which confirms oil across the floor of the valley.

===========================================

Oily Bliss



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If 14/10-4 confirms recoverable oil below 2,500m then it's very tempting to look towards the South and the new seismic data for "significant upside potential"

==========================================

Scale of additional seismic region



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I have some cash at hand ahead of results, this cash is usually for averaging down when results are bad in order to try and catch a bounce.

But in this instance, if results are good, I will be looking to add to my position, as the market will be unable to value a positive result in a single session.

Thursdays "Stock on Loan" figures at close now updated again.

Looks like a lot of shorters closed on Thursday, now only a very small amount of shorts left open, circa 250K of stock.

To be honest I am quite sure that his has, imo, been manipulated down to kick a lot of small PI's off of the shareholder register and leave a couple of big funds with increased holdings levels prior to the news that ends all negative speculation, if this well proves Sea Lion main has circa 35m of net pay and also the OWC is low down (or none found) then it can never be questioned again about SL being commercial in the future. How many PI's have been scared into selling out ahead of what could be massive news.

We all know the bear raid in the past that pushed the price down with the false heavy oil rumours - that avenue of manipulation is now blocked.

Has there been a more basic form used where two or three funds have been selling to each other such that they force the price down but also as they buy each others sells and sell into each others buys, they themselves actually keep the same amount of stock with zero cost - the effect of doing this and forcing the price down then allows them to buy up all the sells from people who get out of the stock as its falling, as they are overmargined, as they are scared ? Its an easy way to buy lots of stock cheaply - especially when you know that big funds will only add to their holding after news, and not before. Allows you to really scare the wits out of the small PI's and force them under fear to derisk or sell or move on - and you simply keep on buying their sells.

Its binary now, there is no middle ground, the share price will zoom upwards and rerate on good news, or it will zoom downwards on poor news. People who sold will either be cursing themselves for selling, or thanking their stars they did.

Fingers crossed all is good :)!

Here is the stock on loan chart up to Thursday close.



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Proselenes

If like you keep saying about not having sold any of your RKH shares and holding them long term, then why don't you stop posting on all the these websites 24/7 and get on with your life, have you nothing better to do all day.

They must know now, if this latest drill is a success.....and there might be a leak before monday....what I can't understand is surely the first test on sealion must be considered to be a major success....then even if the deeper zone is not, they still have what they already discovered or am I not understanding this properly ?.....