Just quick summary to bring this to your attention; more detail will hopefully follow.

This stock floated yesterday at 10p and has since doubled. It has, needless to say, suddenly become very popular on another BB.

The company is profitable already and trading on an estimated (by yours truly) forward PE for the current year of 9 at SP 20p. EDIT: Hoodless Brennan estimate EPS for Full Year 2006 will be 2.18p - see article (link below).

Free float is 11.4% of the 81.2 million shares in issue - most are held by the directors.







Extremely useful Investegate article LINK


Extremely useful Hoodless Brennan analysis LINK


PDYOR, etc.

Lots of Chinese Stock (rampers) trapped into this one I am told from all the postings there on the dark side (AFN BB's which are now ramper infested).

Does not look very interesting, margins falling, committed to expansion with falling margins, poor PR.

Tiddler, Chinese, Illiquid, Big Spread, AIM etc..

This one is about as unattractive as a normal stock could be made to look. Certainly not an investment, there are so many much better companies around, loads of this.

On top of the GNG admission that things are slowing down, today also saw ZTC (Chinese telecoms) say this which again is more evidence to say that things in China are under pressure, and those who said 2009 would be a bad year for anything China related, might well be proven correct :

"As has been widely reported, trading and credit conditions for SME's in the PRC have become increasingly difficult throughout the third quarter of 2008. This is due to deteriorating macro economic conditions outside the PRC and slowing economic growth and restrictive credit policies in China. As a consequence, our markets have become increasingly competitive, disruptive and oversupplied. ZTC has therefore achieved sales significantly below those seen in the same period last year.

As a consequence, the Company's working capital available to operate and expand its business has become constrained, as has been previously announced. The Company continues to review all aspects of its operations to reduce costs and improve efficiencies to improve the availability of working capital for new model and market development. The possible sale of assets referred to above is one example of a potential method of cash generation that is being actively considered."

From the recent TAIH update :

30th Sept 2008

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200809301317376908E

"That production gap, combined with the effects of a strengthening Renminbi exchange rate on export sales, meant that although our sales of the anti-cancer active pharmaceutical ingredients, Paclitaxel and Homoharringtonine, remained strong, revenues for the half slipped by 11% to RMB 29.8 million, pulling pre-tax profits back to RMB 14.6 million from RMB 18.1 million for the same period a year earlier."


Those currency issues will be even worse now, look at the Chinese Yuan exchange rate since that update - how badly are export sales falling off now ?




The old saying, it can take years to gain a customer, and only seconds to lose one. How many are TAIH losing due to the currency issues ?

Bad update out.

I did warn and warn again over at AFN in the past that things were going to be bad, and currency movements will hurt sales for TAIH, but they were all abusive to me.

Now who has the last laugh..........serves them right.

i have always reckoned this share was crap too .... it's another kate barnes special, so no doubt she'll be posting shortly telling us all how marvellous the company really is and how it will come right in due course .... rather like TMC (which actually has a better chance)

cynic, yes, agreed.

I saw it coming for a long time, as you can read from my posts.

Must say I would love to read the AFN thread (but I do not go to the "dark side" now), all those numpties who were so sure the future was great and who were ramping like mad (like 8trader, Shaid1, Dorset64, yobstol and many others) they must have had a bit of a shock today to see their ramp crash and burn.

the minusculke volume also indicates that if you wanted to unload even a modest slab, it would either not be possible or MMs would murder you on the offer

Taihua will go to 1p.

nice interesting thread this, first time i have read it.
a lot of sensible and helpful comments from some posters and some not so sensible by others.
please read and decide for yourselves which are which.
regards
jkd

Someone asked me about "EU licenses" and isn't that going to change things for TAIH.

So in reply, I have said for a long time that it is my view that EU approval means exactly what it says, its approval to sell within the EU and nothing more.

However, all of their problems now (which is losing market sales to cheaper synthisised, and losing sales due to the Yuan strength) will be the same problems that stop them selling into the EU even after approval.

As an event itself EU approval means nothing in terms of revenue or profits, it simply opens another route to sell, it does not mean they can or will sell any significant volume.

So quite simply, the "rampers" of AFN have in the past tried to pick an event "EU approval" and ramp this as the "blue sky" event for TAIH.

Thats all the talk is, pure ramping as simply it opens a door, and given the rise of sythentics and the Yuan strength, I think its quite clear the existing doors are closing, let alone breaking into new sales area's (which needs big spending on marketing and promotion).

With Yuan strength still there, and with synthetics (the big competitor to natural TAIH products) riding a wave sales due to their lower cost and greater acceptance as just as effective.......the outlook for TAIH remains, IMV, very bad.

DYOR !

You get the feeling this pile of "ex-ramped" poo (imo) is heading for say 3p levels ?

Very undervalued and screaming buy

Its totally overvalued and a sceaming sell ??????? ;) LOL

What is the Value of net assets per share?

bugger all on a good day i would venture

15.67p

so buy all you can, though i wonder who vaklued the assets ..... anyway, i bet you could pick up lots of stock for <12.5p with the sellers delighted to have the shares taken off their hands

LOL @ cynic.

Very true.

Any net asset value is historic, gawd only knows that they have purchased and spent in the meantime. The only way to see the real value of the net assets is a valuation with results, however, TAIHUA appear to put results out 6 months after the end of the financial year, so even those figures are 6 months out of date.

In simple terms, you have no idea what is going on, and so, the SP is where it is, as their trading update was awful and their outlook very similar IMO.

LOL