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Shortie - that's sorta my approach.

Any views?

HLD - they got about 1.3x dividend cover at 7%+ yield which looks attractive. There currently trading at a low PE some 7.6 but March 12 accounts showed a 20% decrease in net income. Sure the share looks attractive now but unless sales have picked up which I very much doubt both dividend cover and yield will slip. You have to ask yourself if halfords retail trade is really going to work and I think not. Competition online will crush their car retail segment over time, 18% down in March the segment was and I expect the trend to continue. On technicals I'd hold off, I expect 275-280p resistence will reverse the upwards trend, so my play would be a short from around 280p.

Skinny looks like resistance ahead nice chart. Must have made a few bob on that already. Upped volume today which is a good sign.

Think Ill put it in my hot watch portfolio.

Just one more push.....


CLF

Technicaly nearing a down channel
breakout through the ceiling at 90pish

Very positive.

Volume looks very perky, and some
would say overbought but these lower
indicators the oscilators can plateau
for long periods.

Looks like we're about to see a golden cross GF..

Suprised me how resilient a lot of stocks are today. I was thinking we would have a full deck of reds.

One to watch...... 24 hour rule.....

Hornby crash looks overdone this morning on profit alert..

Have you seen the stuff HRN are making? The Olympic stuff is mostly really poor quality & vastly overpriced. I sold my stock in Aug when I saw how bad the toys & memorabilia were. For management to allow such poor quality through is unforgivable imho!

Yep the Olympic stuff was supposed to be a game changer. Thank god didnt still have them.

Thinking of going in for MCRO. (nearer close as its going in and out of being positive)

Didnt realise it was on such a cheap rating.

P/E 10.6 to 2014

Micro Focus International PLC

FORECASTS 2013 2014
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Peel Hunt
20-09-12 BUY 97.21 47.00 23.50 101.29 51.34 25.67
Westhouse Securities
20-09-12 BUY
Panmure Gordon
20-09-12 BUY 105.56 51.22 71.20 108.06 55.22 73.08
Merchant Securities Limited
14-09-12 HOLD 110.20 50.84 23.01 115.22 53.29 24.16
Singer Capital Markets Ltd
14-09-12 BUY 98.34 47.88 21.96 100.02 52.10 24.16
Investec Securities
17-08-12 BUY 105.45 52.72 26.36 108.18 59.90 29.98
Canaccord Genuity Ltd
06-08-12 BUY 108.94 51.24 23.17 115.26 54.92 24.98
Numis Securities Ltd
21-06-12 BUY 111.06 48.60

2013 2014
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 104.50 49.88 32.34 107.46 54.30 34.47
1 Month Change -2.43 0.09 1.25 -2.85 0.81 1.62
3 Month Change -2.00 1.46 12.49 -1.47 2.78 12.73


GROWTH
2012 (A) 2013 (E) 2014 (E)
Norm. EPS 21.04% 27.24% 8.87%
DPS -3.15% 111.92% 6.60%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2012 (A) 2013 (E) 2014 (E)

EBITDA £117.09m £111.70m £114.10m
EBIT £94.52m £102.85m £105.32m
Dividend Yield 2.64% 5.60% 5.96%
Dividend Cover 2.57x 1.54x 1.58x
PER 14.74x 11.59x 10.64x
PEG 0.70f 0.42f 1.20f
Net Asset Value PS -95.75p 15.46p 7.84p

I haven't seen any of the stuff they made for the olympics. Hornby used to always produce decent toys, had assumed they were to the old standard and clearly mistaken. Good job I'm not holding and if new stock is indeed cheap rubbish then they deserve the crash in sp.

Compare & contrast:




This one is around 3-4" wide and was on sale at around £8-10 I remember:

Day light robbery.

I should have shorted them of course - hindsight!

ahh never mind SC, always other opportrunitys popping up.

The toy doesn't even reseble the Olympic park, not even the same shape and unpainted, children always go for colours unless the intention is they paint it themselves.... Hornby in all their years know what works so I'm amazed at this.

That was the point I was making. The Olympic Park has, by now, an almost iconic look. Looks like the model was meant to be keepsake atop mantlepieces up & down the land, not a children's toy, but the shape is wrong, it's missing the triangular floodlights on top and the sides aren't angled. Truly dreadful!

Does anyone have a view on Phoenix Group Holdings? Yield 8.2% with around 3.1x cover, I make the PE 4 and sp around half book value. To me the sp looks cheap due to the company having liquidity problems and being overgeared which the board has recognised and is addressing both. What am I missing here?

Pennant ?