Xtract Energy - looking for oil in shale. Feasible and cost effective? Anyone in these at present?

I wanted to have a look at the chances of success for the drill and see cold comfort 6 on ii has saved me the job -





Some decent volume today, as you might expect - but a fairly static share price. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next month as LUNA approaches target depth - volatility is probably the only thing we can predict with any certainty.

The "28% chance of strong technical success" predictions by TRACS are well worth a look for anyone who hasn't read them. See
http://tinyurl.com/TRACSDENMARK

Interestingly TRACS assess the key risk as charge. Whereas Noreco assess the key risk as Trap and put the chance of success some 40% higher than TRACS. I've stated my speculation before - but it might be worth restating, Noreco's drilling success rates suggest they may be using seabed sniffing tech to verify prospects. If they had used such tech before farming into this prospect it would explain why they have a higher chance of success and more specifically, why they put trap as the key risk. It is also worth noting that TRACS were instructed by Elko not Noreco and so would not have had access to any such data. It is, of course, purely speculation, but if Noreco are correct then it would mean that the chance of strong technical success could be as high as 42%. Given the prize at stake, that's phenomenally high, but remember it would mean 58% chance of weak technical success or failure. So it would be rather pleasant to de-risk the drill with some good news from Chevron...

I would love to think that we'll get some news out of Chevron prior to the 100 days production test - even if it's just to confirm they have gas shows and will commence production testing. If they do announce that, it could happen soon, because they've been drilling now for a decent length of time. But there's a decent chance Chevron won't make any announcements until they've completed the production test - in which case we could be waiting 'til April. Keen to hear any views.

Then there's Julia Creek. Anna Bligh has committed to the 24th march so not long to wait now for the state elections. I still think we'll hear nothing on Julia Creek until after the elections, but I'm hopeful that things could move quite quickly if the LNP win. And they still look set to win - an online poll by "the australian" shows 87% of readers expect the LNP to win.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/elections/state/qld-election-2012
So I'm looking forward to an early announcement that Xtr is actively seeking an investment partner etc.

Re the other legs - Turkey (and Candarli Bay) and Zhibek - I'm not hopeful of any news in the next few months, so focus will be hugely on Noreco and Chevron.

The combined odds are in Xtr's favour - but anything can happen. The only thing for certain is that days like today - with high volume but low price volatility, will become increasingly rare as Luna approaches target depth...

good luck all
cc
anks to cold comfort -

Cenkos is a fan of Xtract Energy, 0.02p dearer at 2.28p. Analyst Ashley Kelty’s target price is 6p for a company which has been transformed from an investment concern into an operating company concentrating on exploration in the Netherlands.
It has just commenced drilling of a high impact exploration well offshore Denmark which could prove transformational in the event of success.
It is debt free and has a strong balance sheet.


Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2100615/MARKET-REPORT-Six-profit-warnings-year-leaves-Carpetrights-share-price-threadbare.html#ixzz1mIrZLthb

http://www.derrickpetroleum.com/2012/02/14/xtract-energy-review-options-for-julia-creek-oil-shale-project/

2.075p ( 2.05 / 2.10p )

Moving higher on a strong level 2 of 2 v 1 and not able to buy online on size on the small spread
edit - now 3 at bid

spread 2.05 / 2.15p +0.075p

Have for some time trying to move higher but sellers have come as the price appreciated, now is trying to move up again

gone up on the offer and strong on the bid side

level 2 of 5 v 2

Just now someone paid 2.24p for 354K a very large premium for a very large trade

NMS is 100K

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4319652

http://hugin.info/138447/R/1589828/499354.pdf

Lets hope for some news next week, sp not risen pre the two drill results.

news well over due now. 50/50 I would guess

Wait and see for the drill result. Up 11% . Still 50?50

Operational Update
RNS
RNS Number : 5374Z
Xtract Energy plc
16 March 2012



16th March 2012



AIM: XTR



XTRACT ENERGY PLC

("Xtract" or the "Company")



Operational Update



Xtract Energy PLC makes the following operational update.





Denmark



Drilling of the Luna prospect on the 01/11 license is about to be completed.



The Luna well objective was to test the overall Rotliegendes play concept over licences 01/11 and 02/05. The Luna well location was picked in order to maximize the information gathered by the well and was designed to address a number of play uncertainties. The Luna well did not encounter hydrocarbons. The extensive new data obtained from drilling the Luna well will be analysed and integrated into the overall Rotliegendes play model covering the two licence areas.



Xtract has a 33 percent interest in licence 01/11, through it's wholly owned subsidiary Elko Energy A/S. Noreco is the operator for the licence with Danish North Sea Fund as the other partner.





Qualified Person



In accordance with AIM Guidelines, Peter Moir, B.Sc. Civil Engineering, M.Eng. Petroleum Engineering, UK Chartered Engineer, President of Elko Energy Inc. and CEO of Xtract Energy plc is the qualified person as defined in the Guidance Notes for Mining, Oil and Gas Companies, February 2010, of the London Stock Exchange, that has reviewed the technical information contained in this press release. Mr Moir has more than 30 years experience in technical, operational and commercial aspects of the E&P business.

duster sp down 30%+

I think investors can gather that from above

mitzy are you in this heap of s*** too.....

Signs of life....?

Things have been happening for the last few weeks :

Jan Nelson appointed CEO last wek, preluding to changes on the direction of the company

Soon an IPO at GOS, were XTR have a stake ( Julia Creek ).

Rising with some large trades, volume reaches 23 millions

They've managed to attract some pretty impressive people to the board with a sound track record. That wouldnt happen without a reason.

With Global and Chevron in the background a complete reshuffle and diveristy to portfolio, this is going places. All looking very positive