http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

Sorry i did my best?
harry gave us the info on Monday(ref to EXXON),always going to drop as a result of it.

DJ down 200pts,so not looking good for shares in general.Of course if(which i doubt)we have a RNS of good news,then ?

a somewhat cheerier start to the day than i expected, but GKP is still looking very fragile

Wher have all the positive vibes got to ?.....in the space of a week, the two month climb for a lot of shares has retreated back to diddly squat !....

there are siren calls to try to catch the knife, but common sense don't even think about it ..... i think there's a lot of positions being closed, willingly or not as the order book is still skewed in favour of the offer

yep lots of cfds closed or being closed does not help

baler lol!

Good post from iii

Only Watch Shahristani
Barney71255
8

I have posted before disconnects within the ICG. Luiabi the oil minister was positive about Kurdish contracts at the Maliki government formation and was corrected by Shah on his statements and Shah also corrected statements made by Maliki. So strong disconnects are always there and Shahristani is changing.

When Exxon exploration block awards became public (not when they were known) Shah spit the dummy out and the Kurd contracts were illegal, there were the threats to save face, and the puppets below him continue with the same position.

Since then Maliki met with Exxon in Washington so their (Exxon) off the record position is known by Shahristani, and in a totally separate event the south of Iraq around Basra the provincial government (endorsed by Shahristani) has been involved in regional government oil & gas activities previously only done centrally. It indicates Shahristani maybe accepting more regional empowerment.

Exxon from their side would never indicate if lawyers are involved, their leanings. So the puppet statement that Exxon are re-considering was not from them but I recall Maliki asking them to re-consider. Exxon's lawyers would have only requested a delay in providing a response.

Now yesterday I posted that publically Shahristani told Dinar on Monday he wanted to see more transparency in the Kurdish contracts. First time he's accepted them and NOT said these were illegal and choose north or south. The message is clear, Exxon be transparent in the 6 exploration block contracts you now have and respond to us. Watch the organ grinder and not the puppets. He is not saying drop these. So from a publicly available info on the political scene, Shahristani is signally Exxon about transparency and in so saying he's endorsing Kurdish oil and gas contracts and that these exist. All KRG oilies should rise in price as political risk is dropping and not what we are seeing.

Also the National Conference between all parties lead by Talabani happens towards the end of March to try and finally resolve the issues between Allawi & Maliki. The kingmakers are again the Kurds and top of their agenda is sort out the Oil & Gas Law - and now Shahristani is wanting to see and understand these terms in a tranparent way - he sees the writing on the wall if Iraq is to continue

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At least these have recovered 10p at the mo where as AFR............
edit 20p+

Trading above 280p now,HSBC's value.Lokks like a real pro job on how to get cheap stock?

Wonder if he's/she's back in???

The way the market is behaving,it looks to me as though all those accumilated in yesterdays fiasco are not of circulation?

He's a post from anhardened experienced no nonsence investor,the last line is why i post.

I didn't have a problem with HSBC's approach and valuation based on the public facts available to them

£5+ or whatever discounted by 50% for political risk
The discount factor is whatever you believe it should be

In Exxon's case (or any other prospective buyer)the fact that you are intent on making an offer means you put the risk factor down pretty low


As I posted before the AB data room is full to spill with interested parties!

Just came across this,

Lucian Miers has written a negative article on today's Share Crazy Blog. It is well argued and not exteme in tone but very critical. Including:-

1."In June 2011 the company set an 8 month target of 10,000 barrels of oil production per day. If I am not mistaken more than 8 months on, this target has not been reached and the company has given no reason as to why not".

2."In September 2011 GKP stated its intention to sell its 20% interest in the Akri Bejeel block, estimated to contain 2.4 billion barrels. Executive Chairman and CEO Tod Kozel said at the time that he expected a quick sale owing to huge demand, yet in February the company is appointing grand sounding names to help sell the stake".

3." The company’s website homepage contains an extremely bombastic interview on CNBC with Tod Kozel who claims oil “definitely” in place of 12 billion barrels (more than the published reserves of Shell), which furthermore costs only $2.90 to extract. If it sounds too good to be true…..you get my drift. (To give such an interview is one thing, to post it on your corporate website another)".

4.Perhaps I am being over cynical. I have just been rereading Brian Hutchinson’s seminal tome on Bre X “Fools Gold: the making of a global market fraud “ It is great reading but perhaps makes one feel a little over cautious when attempting to evaluate massive resource discoveries.

I'm sure these points have been made here sometime ago but they will be difficult to find among the thousands of posts. What are the answers please?

I hold a substantial no of shares which I regard as an investment for re-rating of the discoveries, possibly £8 area.

Have just sold out at 280.5, nice to make 40p a share in under 24 hrs.

FT oil sector watcher:
"Even by yesterday's volatile equity market standards, GKP's share price collapse stood out as remarkable. At one stage the shares were off 36% to 218p, before closing down 24%. Bear in mind that this is the second largest E&P in the sector behind Tullow, which in itself I find astonishing. The reason for the dramatic underperformance (the AIM Oil & Gas Index was down a mere 10% on the day) was a press report that Iraq is pressuring Exxon Mobil not to press ahead with its recently announced plans to acquire acreage in Kurdistan. If it does, Baghdad is saying that this could lead to it being unable to invest further in any Iraqi projects. Its proposed entrance into the disputed Kurdish region had led to highly speculative claims that XOM would bid an extremely high price for GKP, rumours propagated largely by the bulletin board retail nutters, sorry punters, who largely drive the share price. At least the shares are back at a more reasonable level. Whatever XOM decides to do in the region, I simply cannot see the justification for an enormous premium for GKP and hence I'd still be a seller of the stock."

I like this bit

rumours propagated largely by the bulletin board retail nutters

indeed

I'm posting this article along with the previous one so one can get a feel on how others seeit. It should be remembered he got it wrong ,as the SP climbed to 450p?


Gulf Keystone Petroleum Is it time to Buy? Gulf Keystone Petroleum Is it time to Buy?
by Lucian Miers, East London’s most feared short seller



I was urged today to buy Gulf Keystone on the back of big falls so I decided to have a very quick look at it. GKP needs no introduction (In case you hadn’t heard it’s sitting on around 20 billion barrels of oil in Kurdistan). It seems to the most talked about oil play out there and I find it difficult to move freely around without being tipped it by a succession of friends, taxi drivers, brokers, waiters etc . For this reason alone I have stubbornly refused to buy it and felt extremely foolish as it soared inexorably to 450p the other day.



So today with the shares at 250p and with cries to jump on the GKP bandwagon growing deafening I spent a short amount of time skimming through the last year’s worth of company announcements and looking at the company’s website. For what it worth, I will not be jumping on the bandwagon for the following reasons:



In June 2011 the company set an 8 month target of 10,000 barrels of oil production per day. If I am not mistaken more than 8 months on, this target has not been reached and the company has given no reason as to why not.



Also in June GKP issued a Directors Shareholdings RNS which looks odd and seems to make some pretty implausible claims.



During a period in which GKP’s shares quadrupled the only time it commented on its price was to say it knew no reason for a fairly modest fall back in August.



In September 2011 GKP stated its intention to sell its 20% interest in the Akri Bejeel block, estimated to contain 2.4 billion barrels. Executive Chairman and CEO Tod Kozel said at the time that he expected a quick sale owing to huge demand, yet in February the company is appointing grand sounding names to help sell the stake.



The company’s website homepage contains an extremely bombastic interview on CNBC with Tod Kozel who claims oil “definitely” in place of 12 billion barrels (more than the published reserves of Shell), which furthermore costs only $2.90 to extract. If it sounds too good to be true…..you get my drift. (To give such an interview is one thing, to post it on your corporate website another)



None of the above points in themselves seem that important and no doubt the cheerleaders have good explanations for each of them but there is something about GKP and by extension, Mr Kozel which makes me a bit queasy and I will not be bargain hunting at these prices.



Perhaps I am being over cynical. I have just been rereading Brian Hutchinson’s seminal tome on Bre X “Fools Gold: the making of a global market fraud “ It is great reading but perhaps makes one feel a little over cautious when attempting to evaluate massive resource discoveries

you have been warned!