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Avoid Xcite Energy Limited, Buy Independent Resources (IRG) (IRG)     

investor48 - 18 Jun 2015 21:39

Optiva Securities. Independent Resources (IRG)net asset 28P
https://twitter.com/optivalondon?lang=en-gb


While there are many different styles of investing, ultimately obtaining a balance between income, growth and value is usually the most appealing path to take.

That’s because, while stocks with super growth prospects or incredibly high yields are attractive, they inevitably appeal to a relatively small pool of investors.

Meanwhile, stocks that offer both of these qualities at a reasonable price could see their share prices bid up by demand from a wider spectrum of investors, thereby providing greater total returns over the longer term.

Xcite Energy (LSE: XEL), is much more risky. That’s because, while it has a relatively impressive asset base, there remain question marks among a number of investors regarding its long term financing.

In fact, if the oil price weakens in future, Xcite could find it more difficult to spark investor interest in its planned activities in the coming years – especially since it is loss-making and is expected to remain so over the medium term.

Certainly, Xcite Energy is cheap and this is best evidenced by its price to book ratio of just 0.5. However, with a number of other resources plays offering great value as well as very robust finances, improving profitability and even impressive dividend potential, Xcite appears to lack appeal on a relative basis.

As such, and while it could reverse the 48% fall in its share price over the last year in the long run, I’d rather choose a less risky and potentially very rewarding stock.

And one that sticks out is Independent Resources (IRG) after a recent round of funding and sitting below the placing price, we can now expect this heavyweight board to start delivering its elephant field in Tunisia.

(IRG) received an extension to the Ksar Hadada licence until April 2016.
At the same time the company’s new position as project operator has been rubber-stamped and its stake in the project increases to 86.345% from 19%.

Government approval has effectively cleared the way for the mirco-cap oil and gas firm to re-start exploration and development work at Ksar Hadada – where a recent estimate identified 108mln barrels of oil equivalent ‘in place’ resources with a net value of US$263mln.

Coleman explains that the company had not been entirely satisfied with the management of the licence in the past, so taking control of operations is a big plus.

“Now [we are operator] we can’t point the finger at anyone else and say it is their fault,” he adds. “It is now up to us to deliver, and we think we can do the job - so it is good news.”

With the regulatory matters now settled, Coleman now has two key priorities – securing a contract for a planned seismic programme and partnering.

He explains that detailed talks have already been had with two separate potential suitors, both of which had made their interest known to the company. The plan now is to expand the discussions via a broader farm-out process.

Coleman says a deal could be agreed , and in the meantime IRG will continue to make preparations for the seismic programme. Armed with better seismic data the company would then aim to test the reservoir quality, either by re-entering a prior well or by drilling a new one from scratch.

The largest producer of gas in Tunisia, BG supplies about 40 percent of domestic demand and it put its total investment by the middle of this year at more than $3 billion.

Italy’s ENI, Austrian energy group OMV and British energy services firm Petrofac Plc, which is a partner in an offshore concession, are among the 55 firms operating in Tunisia.
They are likely to be joined by others.

“We keep on looking at opportunities in Tunisia,” said Manfred Boeckmann, a senior executive with German utility RWE.
“I do hope and am quite confident this will result in some acreage in the mid-term,” he told the Energy Exchange North Africa Oil and Gas summit in Tunis at the end of last month.

Like shoppers on Black Friday, Wall Street titans have a keen smell for deep discounts. At the moment, they're sniffing in oil fields.

Many parts of the U.S. stock market look expensive these days, but prices have fallen dramatically in the energy sector from over $100 a barrel in the summer to under $50 now.

Private equity firms are raising vast sums of money to buy oil assets on the cheap.

Blackstone Group (BX) alone launched a $4.5 billion energy fund on Monday. That gives the private equity giant a formidable war chest to deploy on distressed assets like beaten-down oil companies and drilling projects thrown in disarray by the oil meltdown.

Given its history in the industry, Blackstone said it's well positioned to "take full advantage of the significant recent cyclical downturn in oil and gas prices."

Private equity pounces: They aren't alone. Warburg Pincus, the New York firm where former Treasury secretary Tim Geithner works, launched a $4 billion energy fund in October.

These sophisticated investors realize traditional sources of capital like banks and the junk bond market are increasingly shutting oil companies out.

"Private equity companies are uniquely positioned to capitalize on this. Not only do they have the deep pockets, but they can also take a long-term approach," said John Story , an energy analyst at Nasdaq Advisory Services.

Until recently Tunisia was considered to be a minor league and relatively underexplored venue in Africa’s rapidly expanding oil & gas scene. This situation has quickly changed with new bid rounds and forced relinquishments creating an opportunity for new companies to come in.

Major E & P companies like Shell have jumped at the opportunity to acquire ground that had been dominated for decades with little to no work conducted, mostly by European State oil & gas companies in this former French protectorate.

For the first time major spending has been committed to test Tunisian basins which are arguably equally prolific as those in neighbouring environments with more work performed, such as Libya.

Tunisia is now in focus for investors because exploration is increasing within the producing Pelagian Basin.
Certain projects in the U.S. shale and Canadian oil sands no longer make economic sense with oil below $50 a barrel. Sophisticated investors are sensing desperation.

Some companies in the oil industry are in a much weaker financial position, forcing them to slash drilling plans, lay off workers and scrap dividends.

Other firms are unfairly seeing their stock prices decline because they are being lumped in with the weakest companies. Private equity may be their only lifeline.

Of course, private equity firms aren't strangers to the oil industry, which until recently had been soaring thanks to the shale boom. Since 2013, private equity has raised a whopping $101 billion in energy-focused funds, according to data provider Preqin.

In fact, many like KKR (KKR) and Carlyle Group (CG) have revealed steep drops in profits due partly to falling stock prices in the oil industry. They have been burned on the downside too.

Buy signal for retail investors? While mom-and-pop investors don't have the luxury of raising billions of dollars to buy distressed assets, they do have the option to buy energy stocks, but the jury is still out on whether these stocks have bottomed out.

On the one hand, recent filings reveal Warren Buffett dumped his holdings of ExxonMobil (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP) late last year. That's not exactly a vote of confidence in Big Oil.

Then again, the S&P 500 energy sector has rallied more than 8% since mid-January as oil prices have rebounded back above $50 a barrel (at least until Monday when they dropped back below that level).
BlackRock (BLK), the world's largest asset manager, recently made a bullish call on "super major" oil companies due to their strong balance sheets, high dividends and integrated business models.

In any case, some everyday American may be gaining exposure to energy whether they want to or not.
Blackstone's $4.5 billion fund didn't just raise cash from the uber rich. Its investors include U.S. state pension funds, corporate pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, endowments and foundations.

Independent Resources plc LON:IRG a United Kingdom-based oil and gas company focused on acquiring and developing production and low risk exploration opportunities was notified on 9 June 2015 that John Story, a private investor, now holds 10,000,000 ordinary shares of 1p each representing approximately 5.40% of the issued share capital of the Company.

Independent Resources plc LON:IRG is a United Kingdom-based oil and gas company focused on acquiring and developing production and low risk exploration opportunities. The Company operates in four segments: Parent company, Rivara, Ribolla Basin coal bed methane (CBM) assets and Ksar Hadada. The company has assets under development including an oil prospect onshore Tunisia, a source of methane onshore Italy and an underground gas storage facility in North-Eastern Italy. The company , through a wholly owned subsidiary, holds a 86.345% interest in the Ksar Hadada exploration permit covering an area of 2,252 square kilometres onshore south-east Tunisia. The Company’s Fiume Bruna Exploration Permit consists of an area totaling 247 square kilometers located in southern Tuscany, Central Italy, lying entirely onshore.

mitzy - 23 Oct 2015 13:42 - 3 of 3

On the up today.
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