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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 26th January (AVN)
Crocodile - 25 Jan 2004 12:41
| UK 9:15am Futures | FTSE -14 | DAX -14 | DOW -17 | S&P -1.2 | Nasdaq -1.5 |
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Senofi makes a 48.5 Billion Euro offer for Aventis (AVN) Legal & General has unveiled a two percent drop in global new business sales, in line with expectations, and says it expects to gain market share on the back of rising consumer confidence, New business sales for insurance products fell to 886 million pounds from 906 million on an annual premium equivalent basis. Analyst had forecast sales of between 870-917 million pounds with a consensus of 893 million. GWR radio company Group said it was not in talks with Capital Radio after a Sunday newspaper said the firms had entered formal discussions on a merger Irish Life & Permanent Ireland's third-biggest financial company, said it had not held talks over a possible takeover by HBOS countering a newspaper article on Sunday. |
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Legal & General FY Sales 875m exp. Vernalis (I), Beale (F), Alterian(I), Scottish Radio Holdings (AGM) Granada Plc (GAA). BonEx Terms are 1 Redeemable for every 13.84 Ordinary shares. Treasury conference on Britain in a Global Economy |
American Express (Q4),Texas Instruments (Q4), Altera (Q4), Dover (Q4), Hilton Hotels (Q4), Kimberly-Clark (Q4), McDonald's (Q4), Millipore (Q4), Novellus Systems, Safeco, Schering-Plough, American Standard companies (Q4), Lexmark International (Q4) 15.00 Dec Existing Home Sales 6.1m exp |
Santander (F) 07.00 Dec German Import Price Index 0.1% exp
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Crocodile - 25 Jan 2004 12:42 - 3 of 43
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Headlines Sunday 25th January The number of people looking to buy a new home in the next 12 months has fallen to its lowest level for four years A RISE in interest rates next month now looks certain, after the release of strong retail figures and further signs of an economy continuing to grow. Intelligent Finance last night reacted angrily to claims that it is set to close its Gyle headquarters in Edinburgh, and merge its operations into HBOS's retail arm.
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SUNDAY TIMES 'Eco-cement' to hit CRH profits O'Reilly stays in Eircom chair as new board shortlist is drawn up Agenda: William Lewis: Shell needs much more than a PR offensive Lloyds TSB News in Brief: Widows bonus cuts Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Michael Page? Judgement Day: Should you buy shares in Galen Holdings? Antofagasta to boost its board for FTSE debut Sainsbury to pounce on newsagent |
Reichmann in Wharf bid C&W plugs into pop downloads from internet Lovering in last-minute move to wrest Safeway from Morrison Losses leap to 411m at Energis IRS has ex-Glaxo chief taped Investors anger at WH Smith leadership Cairn is acquisition target |
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John Lovering retail entrepreneur, is planning a last-minute 3.5 billion bid to snatch the supermarket group away from Sir Ken Morrison As long as life remains in the housing market, shares in Northern Rock should have further to go from 729p. The group, which will report strong results this week, only has to sell one in every 17 mortgages to maintain growth. |
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| SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Cairn Energy 'My mate George W' AstraZeneca In a rush for Roche? Tesco and my local shops Vodafone 'F1 for me is like a drug' Bernerd wins back Chelsfield BAE Systems Turner in the trenches |
Handover to leave WH Smith early William Morrison Lovering plots Safeway counterbid VT Group buys into AirTanker Manchester United Ferguson contract queried Lovering plots Safeway counterbid |
| mmO2 has rallied since it unveiled its first profit in November. Shares - currently 82 3/4p - have also benefited from talk of a takeover bid by Hutchison and forecasts of strong Christmas trading. Tesco has just stolen a march on its rivals by snapping up London-based convenience stores group Adminstore for 54m. Investors are advised to keep buying shares, despite a 24% rise to 240 3/4p since April. Marylebone Shares in property company 70% owner of department store Liberty - have soared 23% in the last week on the back of bid rumours. The rally has reassured shareholders after a difficult 2002. Tepnel Life Sciences, a biotech company involved in DNA testing, is thought to be close to its second acquisition in recent months. The earlier deal, which allowed Tepnel to enter the US market, came amid lower losses. Buy at 14 1/4p. Helphire, the accident management group, has seen its shares fall to 173p on fears over competition and costs. But the fall looks harsh and fails to take on board the company's investment in call centres. Kier Group has a reputation for being a conservatively run but successful construction company. It has consistently grown earnings for the past 10 years, yet one broker believes its performance is not reflected in shares at 630p. | |
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OBSERVER Investors should kill WH Smith Swann song Hunters Leisure For richer, for poorer? EMAP A taste of Sugar for the boys? Sorted Who rules the roost at Canary Wharf? Leeds bet their shirt on Smith sale |
Daily Mail & General to bid 500m for Telegraph Chorion Trust News in brief WH Smith chief faces fat-cat uproar SMG Scottish Media boss set to stand down |
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MAIL ON SUNDAY Banks get tough on Chelsfield buyout High Street sales signal rate rise, Growth tops Chancellor's forecast BAE loses on 13bn defence deal, Air refuelling contract goes to EADS Leeds United debts top 100m, 18 players earn 1m a year 34bn bid in the wings for Aventis, Plan to create world drugs giant Another 600 staff axed by Boots, Headquarters' jobs will be halved Telegraph strike threat over Black NSB Retail set to beat 2.5m forecast, Firm gets positive feedback on US trial |
Cake toppings make Finsbury queasy, Heavy-handed staff trigger warning Credit card fears over 22bn spending, Rate rise could trigger debt disaster PizzaExpress bid on way for Ask, New offer could kill rival's bid Charitable exit for Baltimore investors, Low-cost share-dealing scheme Ultraframe under cloud in Britain, US gives group sales a boost Battle over WH Smith chief's pay, Investors urged to vote against deal Microsoft reveals profits setback, $2.17bn charge for stock-based pay |
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Aventis pharmaceuticals group was today bracing for a hostile takeover bid worth e50bn (34bn) or more from France's Sanofi-Synthelabo Equitable Life. The Serious Fraud Office is 'to consider a number of issues' raised in a report into what went wrong' |
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INDEPENDENT The Week Ahead: Leeds United on the edge of the abyss Northern Rock The Week Ahead: Leeds United on the edge of the abyss The Week Ahead: Leeds United on the edge of the abyss |
Swan plans big cull at WH Smith HQ British Airways 4,000 jobs to go as BA slashes costs AstraZeneca The Week Ahead: Leeds United on the edge of the abyss |
| Royal & Sun Alliance, While most observers have taken a cautious view of the insurer in the past 18 months, there is now a feeling the worst is over. The stock, at 95p, could prove a solid long-term hold with upside potential. | |
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SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Tesco It's a steal in battle for the aisles Spectre of Emap hangs over Scottish Radio Holdings Royal Bank remains a City favourite in spite of 3% shares slip Boom time for Cairn shares after dream Indian oil discovery Tesco It's a steal in battle for the aisles |
Scottish and Southern Decision-time for Transco deal Cairn Energy Strike it lucky Ministry of Defence 'has no appetite' to bail out BAE British Energy may keep HQ site HBOS Masterton to sell stake in Stadia |
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SUNDAY EXPRESS SDL, An upbeat trading statement from the translation software specialist prompted one broker to introduce a buy rating. The company, whose shares stand at 111.5p, said its global strengths meant it was attracting larger corporate customers. Sanctuary music group is expecting further growth this year after raising profits 20% in 2003. Tours from Destiny's Child and Beyonce should help its performance in 2004. Buy at 46 1/4p. EasyJet has been buoyed lately by upbeat comments from brokers. In addition, 30% of its costs are denominated in dollars, which means it should benefit from the US currency's recent weakening. Buy at 359p. |
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INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy - HBOS (HBOS), WS Atkins (ATK), Debt Free Direct (DFD), Ben Bailey (BBC), Melrose (MRO). Sell - Superscape (SPS).Tips Updates: Alpha Airports (AAP) (fairly priced), First Quantum (FQM) (good value), Bellway (BWY) (keep buying), Cairn Energy (CNE) (fairly priced) and Systems Union (SUG) (buy). |
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SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy - Music Choice Europe (MUS), Tadpole Technology (TAD), Host Europe (HER), Intelligent Environment (IEN), London Bridge Software (LNB) and HHG (HHG). Close/sell Dixons (DXNS).Small Shares: CA Coutts (CAH) (long-term buy). Keep an eye on African Eagle (AFE). Grosvenor Land (GVR) (support the offer). Mean Fiddler (MEF) (buy). Alkane (ALK) (could be better value elsewhere). Brainspark (BSP) (not out of the woods yet). Pharmagene (PGN) (speculative buy). |
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DEXTERDOG - 25 Jan 2004 17:14 - 4 of 43
Melnibone - 25 Jan 2004 18:32 - 5 of 43
Just had a look at the ex-divi's for this week.
What a sorry looking collection. Looks like the schoolkids that
are left at the end, when Team Leaders have 'baggsied' their
players on a cold, wet, school games day.
(Remember those days, all them eons ago?) :-)
Right, get rid of BPK,DTZ,ITE from the start. Way too small and
CMC wouldn't quote prices on them anyway.
That leaves: DVR DXNS FKI ICAP SLY XAN.
Get rid of FKI. It's already spiked up. Moodys are considering a
downgrade to Junk Status because of high debt. Stock is on a
P/E of 55 with a negative PEG. What's it meant to be doing, finding
the Alchemist's Holy Grail? Not worth it for a 1.5p Divi.
Get rid of XAN. It's withdrawing from USA, the divi is only 1p and it
looks like it's about to drop 10p to the 90p support level to me.
That leaves: DVR DXNS ICAP SLY.
SLY: Volume looks a little light to me for decent liquidity and
there were only about 48 trades on Friday afternoon. Recent update
gives declining profits and it's up near yearly highs.
DXNS: UP on yearly highs and divi only 1.66p. Is it worth it?
DVR: Decent divi, 7.7p, but low volume and liquidity again with a
chart pattern that's falling from yearly highs. Drop may be more than
the divi and liquidity could be a problem with getting out without
getting burnt.
ICAP: Nice divi to aim at, 8.5 p, but at over 16 a share the risk/reward
isn't that great for the potential yield involved. Also at yearly highs
and due a 15p drop to retest 1600p.
If you twisted my arm, I might try DVR out of that motley bunch, but I
would probably make more money by buying any of the blue cChip FTSE100
divi payers that takes a hit on market noise.
Not really tempted by any of them.
Look forward to reading other posters views.
Melnibone.
joey123 - 25 Jan 2004 20:18 - 6 of 43
Fundamentalist
- 25 Jan 2004 21:03
- 7 of 43
ThePlayboy
- 25 Jan 2004 21:11
- 8 of 43
Key DOW Levels for 1/26
UP Above 10,660
DN Below 10,500
Downside Break
Dow breaks consolidation to downside, trends lower to the Close.
From prior commentary, "...The formation of the consolidation at the highs is a positive sign, and implies a continuation higher in the medium term...A downside break from the consolidation, however, is still possible and would likely result in a break back below key resistance..."
The Dow opened the session quietly today and traded sideways within the consolidation boundaries before finally getting a big downside break later in the session, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The downside break from the consolidation sparked a steady move lower, resulting in a 55 point loss.
Looking at the 60 Minute Chart shows that the index has broken back below resistance at 10,600, which could extend the time that the index spends within the wide, ill-formed trading range, which spans from 10,375 to 10,660.
As mentioned before, the index is very likely to remain within the current overall uptrend that began in late November, seen in the Daily Chart. A downside break of the major lower trend line at 10,500 would cause either a steep sell-off or the formation of a very wide trading range at the highs. Watch 10,500 closely Monday.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow ended the day right at short term resistance at 10,568, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Watch this level closely, using it as a fulcrum at the Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we closed Longs in the market at 10,600, giving us a 40 point gain for the trade. We then entered the market Short at 10,600 and are still in the position. We will continue to hold stops at the entry for Monday's market and will stay Short below 10,500. We will look for Longs above 10,660, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each sold off the day's highs, leading to a steady downtrend the remainder of the session. Each index may now have formed wider trading ranges, which could hold near term action. *
Summary
The Dow got the downside break from the consolidation this morning, which sent the index into a day-long downtrend. Look for a continuation lower if 10,500 is breached Monday. Otherwise, look for continued movement within the given range.
ThePlayboy
- 25 Jan 2004 21:12
- 9 of 43
R2 4506
r1 4483
pp 4461
s1 4438
s2 4416
Close was below Fri pp after gaining 3.9pts in the auction! 2 day chart brk out of downtrend at 4463 targets 4480, if not cont weakness back to 4440!
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4570
R1 4515
PP 4477
S1 4422
S2 4383
For next week i see a pos test of 4420 (lower 3 month TL channel) if dow fails to hold 10600 but more importantly for the longer term 10550, if dow holds these levels and ftse has been over cautious and decides to close the divergence a little, a test of 4500 imho!
hijeff - 26 Jan 2004 07:17 - 10 of 43
little woman
- 26 Jan 2004 08:15
- 11 of 43
Got loads of catching up to do, and lot of chores too! Not going to do much today.
little woman
- 26 Jan 2004 08:52
- 12 of 43
The only way I know for sure they will get a reply is if I find them on a thread and reply via the "send a private message" facility. But 9 out of 10 times I can't find a post, and most of the 1 out of 10 I do find, have not updated their user settings so I can "send them a private message".
So I'm not being rude - but if you don't give me a way of replying - I can't!
ThePlayboy
- 26 Jan 2004 08:52
- 13 of 43
little woman
- 26 Jan 2004 08:58
- 14 of 43
I'm trying to remember to actually deal what I think, rather than only one or the other!
Melnibone - 26 Jan 2004 09:36 - 15 of 43
Well done TP. I'm having a leisurely start to the day myself.
Still wondering if I'm going to get the 4380/4400 I'm looking for.
As posted last night, DVR seems to be having low volumes.
3 trades already! Lol. I've seen more liquidity in some AIM stocks.
Hope you are right about a nice drop for GSK, Fundamentalist.
Could do with picking some up nice and cheap.
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 26 Jan 2004 09:43
- 16 of 43
ThePlayboy
- 26 Jan 2004 09:45
- 17 of 43
Above link to fri ftse futs chart, see how Mondays pp tie in nicely with the pp
r2 4475
r1 4456
pp 4437
s1 4418
s2 4399
Fundamentalist
- 26 Jan 2004 10:11
- 18 of 43
little drop on GSK - I am looking to get back in but am still struggling to time it right - if it drops below 1180 that is my current target. Do you also trade Astra Xeneca - any views prior to Thursdays results?
little woman
- 26 Jan 2004 10:14
- 19 of 43
Melnibone - 26 Jan 2004 10:21 - 20 of 43
See my points further up the thread on this one.
Alice in Wonderland price on this stock IMHO.
REf DVR, spread is too wide and liquidity is too low for me.
Ref IAP(ICAP), too close to 1600p and spread none too clever either.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 26 Jan 2004 10:27 - 21 of 43
AZN is nice stock to trade. The price over 26 a share often gives a spread
circa 0.04%.
The current gyrations in the price are fairly volatile. There seems to
be some sort of Bull/Bear battle going on at the moment. Would not
want to get caught the wrong way if one of them wins.:-)
I prefer GSK.
Melnibone
hijeff - 26 Jan 2004 11:00 - 22 of 43
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