http://www.hardmanandco.com/Research/Alliance_June2005.pdf


Web Site : http://www.alliancepharma.co.uk

http://www.hemscott.com/hstoday/Focus_2005/Alliance%20Pharma_1205_2005.htm

Hardmans late June 2005 update

Fair value at 30p

http://www.hardmanandco.com/Research/Alliance_June2005.pdf

PpP: Have followed ch M.G. Tues am and bought 50K at the same price 14.45, getting inside the spread with comdirect in time to catch the pm rise. Funded this with sale of ORCA, an impulse buy earlier in the year and one of few non-recovery stocks in my portfolio, all of which leaves my cash pile intact. All looking good with APH, particularly the OBV, not that I take too much notice of it, but it seems to impress my TA friends.
Added PCM to my watch list last week, and this enjoyed staggering volumes yesterday - perhaps another asian tiger awaking?
And the PpP portfolio continues upwards.
sd.

squidd will take a look at PCM I am hoping for more good things from APH maybe another director buy maybe and I think the shorter left yesterday by the large sells on the rise which should mean its able to go up more freely now. Some good news flow from KUJ this week although I know its not one to excite you.

squidd PCM looks very interesting and heavy volumes. I have just put a thread in for HML as they got a write up today as speculative buy and well bottomed at the moment, all is good on the APH front.

squidd here is the Hardman May update;

From Hardmans monthly review for May 2005;

ALLIANCE PHARMA
Alliance Pharma announced its full year results on 12th May. There were few surprises following the preclose update given just over a month ago. Prior to the release of the results Alliance had confirmed that
it has signed a deal with OralDent Ltd, a privately owned dental products company, to co-promote Alliances Periostat treatemnt for the gum
disease periodontitis. In October last year Alliance acquired the marketing rights for Periostat in the EU, Australia, South Africa and New Zealand from the US group CollaGenex Inc,for a total cost of 1.85m.
Periostat is not protected by patents in the UK and Europe but a data exclusivity agreement provides protection against generic competition until
2010. Under the new deal Oraldent will promote Periostat to UK dentists via a field sales force, a telesales operation and an internet portal. Alliance will
recognise these sales and pay Oraldent sales-based royalties on a sliding scale between 5% and 15%.
At present Periostat is only prescribed in the UK to 6000 patients (0.2% of the potential prescribing opportunities). Given a focused marketing
campaign there is clearly scope to grow this amount. It is noteworthy that in the US sales of Periostat have almost tripled to around $45m a year since 1999.
In a separate development Alliance last month appointed Glynys Davies to head the companys new Dental Products Division (which will promote
Periostat and other products). Glynys Davies has held senior marketing positions with the leading dental product company Dentsply and dental
implants specialist 3i Implant Innovations.
Alliance has also appointed Alexander Scholtens Weert head of the companys new International Division. Mr Scholtens Weert has held marketing positions at Eli Lilly and Roche and was marketing director of Europe, Africa and the Middle East at the medical devices company MinMed. Alliances new International
Division will promote overseas sales of Periostat and Forceval.

Some buyers returning today squidd might mean some news soon.

PpP: Thanks for APH newsflow. Is there a dental bias in your outlook?
ELA is back on track, with some catching up to do, but I remain hopeful. Had a look at CCN again, it used to be on my recovery watchlist from the ASOS challenge days, but I think I was right to delete it; purely from the chart point of view it doesn't for me hold the recovery attractions of ULT or PCM. The latter also has dentistry products.
sd.

squidd another move up today for APH. I am getting excited about Wednesday with OSH results and am hoping for news that the restructuring is all but finished and now very positive looking forward with more profit and more money available to grow the business.
News on the dental drug Periostat would be good for APH as this is going to be a massive revenue earner for APH but any other trial type news would be good or Nigel Wray buying more and more. Dental things to me seems good as it does not matter what the price of oil is and its a growing business.

PpP: Nice to see the blue ink around the portfolio. My front runner is now CSB, I'm adding to this and also ULT and PCM.
sd.

squidd nice to see the buying continue on APH and a good 100K buy at the end of yesterday.

PpP: My chartist friend tells me that the recent 25 - 65 MA cross on APH is a significant event that may point to an upward breakout. It coincides with your encouraging news, so here's hoping.
sd.

squidd it looks like another up day today !!

squidd here is why;

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/printFriendly/0,,1-5-1661099,00.html

June 20, 2005

Biotech sees riches in sleeping market
By Richard Irving

A DRUG that could end the nightmare of long-term sleep deprivation is about to enter phase three trials.

Posidorm will begin final testing among 600 volunteers across Britain next month and, if successful, could unlock a market that is estimated to be worth 4 billion (2.7 billion) a year from 2007 for the Chippenham-based biotech Alliance Pharmaceuticals. It is estimated that about 20 million people in Europe, including the elderly, shift-workers and the blind, suffer some form of long-term sleep deprivation.

Regulatory approval might also help the medicine to achieve cult status as a lifestyle treatment among travellers suffering jetlag and even among late-night revellers.

Posidorm is a synthetic replica of melatonin, a hormone produced in the pineal gland at the back of the eye. The body ramps up production of the chemical as darkness falls to help to induce drowsiness. Production stops around dawn.

The hormone is available in the United States as a dietary supplement, but regulators elsewhere believe that the treatment should be developed as a pharmaceutical so that it can be properly clinically tested.

It is unlikely that Alliance will be able to protect Posidorm with patents, although the company will file for regulatory approval under the orphan drug programme, which will give it exclusive marketing rights for ten years.

John Dawson, the Alliance founder, who with his wife owns 42 per cent of the business, plans to seek a licensing partner to help to sell the medicine.

The sleep disorder market is almost completely unsatisfied, he said. If we can capture just 1 per cent of the potential for this treatment in Europe, we can bring in 40 million of sales a year.

Doctors struggle to treat insomnia. They are reluctant to prescribe sedatives, partly because they are addictive and can be abused in large doses and partly because they lose their efficacy over time.

Posidorm will be formulated in a tablet so that patients get an initial, fast-acting dose to help to bring on sleep and a subsequent top-up that releases slowly throughout the rest of the night.

Alliance was founded in 1996 to exploit mature drug brands that big pharma no longer considered profitable. It struck its first deal in 1998, when it picked up 16 brands under a marketing and distribution deal with Novartis. It floated on AIM in 2003 and last year made two significant brand acquisitions: Periostat, a treatment for gum disease, and Forceval, a prescription drug containing 24 vitamins and minerals for use among people who are malnourished.

Alliance reported a pre-tax profit of 400,000 in the year to the end of February on sales of 11.8 million.

PCF Last week issues an RNS stating that they had been approached in the early stages of a bid. The current valuation is way to low and is about to rocket with the full bid any day. The company is moving back into profit and several broker/tipster recommended it as a buy prior to the bid news

On top of this there is a rumour of a second bidder in the wings going about

This will reach new highs this week, now is the time to get in before it heads toward 100p, current sp is 32p

IMHO

squidd more info;

http://www.hemscott.com/hstoday/Focus_2005/Alliance%20Pharma_1205_2005.htm

PpP: (I presume trader4 is a crossed thread)
The APH chart is looking more and more like a classic recovery play, backed up by your excellent news flow. I was pleasantly surprised to learn about Posidorm, having not noted it earlier, so I'm glad to be on board.
I am now looking hard at TAG.
sd.

squidd more good news;

RNS Number:8284N
Alliance Pharma PLC
21 June 2005
For Immediate Release

ALLIANCE PHARMA PLC
Annual General Meeting Statement

Alliance Pharma plc (AIM: APH), an emerging speciality pharmaceutical company,
held its Annual General Meeting in London today, at which all resolutions were
duly passed.

At the meeting, Michael Gatenby, Alliance Pharma's Chairman, said:

"The first quarter has seen a continuation of the progress reported at our full
year results. Sales have continued to grow, and are on target to meet
expectations. At the full year we highlighted our improving gross margin, and I am pleased to report that first quarter trading has continued to reflect this
trend.

"Good progress continues to be made with our development projects: Posidorm
(melatonin) for sleep disorders and Isprelor (misoprostol) for induction of
labour.

"In addition, and in line with our strategy, we will continue to seek high
quality, cash generative acquisitions of established prescription brands."

At the Extraordinary General Meeting later the same day the Company Share Option Scheme was approved.
ENDS
For further information:
Alliance Pharma plc + 44 (0) 1249 466966
John Dawson, Chief Executive
Maddy Scott, Finance Director
www.alliancepharma.co.uk

squidd another big vote of confidence;

Alliance Pharma PLC
24 June 2005
For Immediate Release 24 June 2005

Alliance Pharma Plc

Notification of Major Interests in Shares

Nigel Wray acquires additional shares in Alliance Pharma

On 23 June 2005, the company was notified by Nigel Wray that he has purchased
an additional 3,250,000 shares at 15p in the company bringing his total holdings in Alliance Pharma to 9,605,407 ordinary shares or 6.58% of the issued share capital.

-ENDS-

For further information:

Alliance Pharma plc + 44 (0) 1249 466966
John Dawson, Chief Executive
Maddy Scott, Finance Director

www.alliancepharma.co.uk

squidd we should get some more news soon as well as on Wednesday 22nd in the last 30 minutes of trading there was over 19 million buys at 15p, so now we know 3.25 million was Nigel Wray but whose were the others ?

squidd a good rise today and we should have more news coming next week on who purchased the other 16 million at the same time as Nigel Wray.

PpP: On a day when the market as a whole was depressed, it was a particularly good performsnce by APH. My chart now seems to be looking up at the sky.
I've been looking into the history of Nigel Wray's investment history. He certainly had a mixed record as an entreprenuer during the dotcom boom years, like the rest of us, but latterly seems to have matured and made many shrewd moves. He obviously bears watching as APH (and others) progress.
sd.