PapalPower
- 25 Jan 2006 16:42
- 301 of 2511
The big difference is its now a very much derisked 300p+ fair value.
Its also max 9 weeks to news on well 104, this is the bigger news, as this is the change to real figures, not speculation, then with 2 more wells to unlock some more of that 5.5 trillion within 21 weeks.
I would not see any problem with this at the 300p level, and then higher on speculation now of the well test results on well 104 due before end of March.
300p fair value + what for speculation that 104 will be 0.5 confirmed ?? That is the key, and is there upside to the 0.5 trillion on 104 ?
Then what if.........what if well 104 is 0.5t or more, what if new wells 106 and 103 find another 0.5t each, or they find 1t each......there is no way in the world I will be selling before all news is in on 104,106 and 103, and that news starts soon with 104, and 106 and 103 are a max 21 weeks aways. This coming news on 104, 106 and 103 is the transformation news, news that takes probable into proven and that is where the biggest rises will come from I think.
But there is more, there are other things going on with VOG, and more good news is expected from other area's of their business.
Seriously, this is a hold/add/buy depending on your status I think, and one no to be shaken out of, the next news in the coming months is the bigger news.
TheFrenchConnection
- 26 Jan 2006 02:36
- 319 of 2511
Amities / What a rewarding day for us all . ! l had originally planned to slowly accumulate VOG for my portfolio of oilies { BP,JKX ,EEL,BUR ,DNX, HDY,COP and CDL to name but a few ; but today my trading instincts could not resist banking profit. Playing the percentages as always ,,lts the only way l know .Always the percentages ,But for a jolly good reason on this ocassion ! ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, This sale had absolutely nothing to do with any particular negative variables related to the stock -such as Simons disposal -au contraire -For every Simon C there is a nemesis . He took a group of us on reg. Regus during suspension during bankruptcy protection ,,,,and i estimate he lost millions .Literally .,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, i believe VOG has not yet finished its prodigious frenzied assualt up the charts . lnevitably there will be other % players banking profit for w/e . But since i tucked away a nice holding upon the first retraction @ 88p and saw offer @ 237 1 was out ...Kept 10,000 but sold most of my holding . And why you ask ? l wanted to release as much funds as i could for the utterly underpriced Gazpom sell off in about 17% of its issued equity. . At last Gazpom has opened its doors to foreign investors as they float on the LSE. .......Seem expensive at first sight. BUT expecting 12 euos back from Gazpom Every single person i spoke to today was waxing lyrical about its prospects . ,,,,,,,Of course ,,l still retain a small interest in VOG as i said it is a solid and its full potential quite unquantiafiable at the moment ; and l wish all holders the very best of luck . Bonne chance et Bonne nuit ,,,,,,,,,@+ J
PapalPower
- 26 Jan 2006 07:07
- 320 of 2511
From www.oilbarrel.com today and the big thing is, the items in bold, you have to be holding for those results, would be crazy not to, and the first news on 104 is due any time in the next 9 weeks :) The upside from a firmed up 0.5 for well 104 is good, but imagine a firmed up 2.3t just from Well 104 !! It has some risk, but could well reward greatly. And then further news on 106 and 103 before end of June.
26.01.2006
VOG Delights Investors With An Update On Its West Medvezhye Project
Shares in Victoria Oil & Gas surged 55 per cent yesterday as the company announced an update on its West Medvezhye gas and condensate project in Western Siberia, Russia. The shares in the AIM-quoted firm gained 80.5 pence to stand at 227 pence.
The rally came after independent consultants DeGolyer & MacNaughton (D&M) attributed a recoverable resource base to the project of 5.5 trillion cubic feet of gas, 146 million barrels of condensate and 25 million barrels of oil, giving the West Medvezhye licence a total hydrocarbon reserve tally of 1.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
These are big numbers and the markets enthusiasm for the stock is understandable - but not yet justified. The numbers quoted above are best estimate prospective figures, which have yet to be proven through the drillbit.
VOG is working towards providing some solid ground to back up these estimates. The Danniella deposit, which was discovered last year with Well 104, is currently being tested. That well was given a 0.5 tcf recoverable reserve base by D&M in November 2005, with a possible upside of 2.3 tcf, following a vertical seismic profile of the hole. The results of the present production test will give much greater certainty about the reservoirs potential.
Further work is underway on the 1,224 sq km licence, which lies in one of the worlds richest gas producing regions. Two new wells, Well 106, which will appraise the 104 discovery, and exploration well 103, which will test a separate structure on the licence, are due to spud next month, with test results due in the second quarter.
Executive Director William Kelleher described this weeks D&M update as truly exciting news and it certainly appears to vindicate VOGs decision of early 2005 to increase its stake in the West Medvezhye licence to 100 per cent. This was completed in December when it paid US$3.2 million in cash and issued 1.2 million new shares to acquire the final 25.2 per cent. VOG also agreed to waive its US$2.6 million outstanding claim against the vendors of its existing 74.8 per cent share.
The negotiations to conclude this deal and secure 100 per cent of the licence have been protracted and investors will no doubt hope this brings to an end any concerns about title or partner disputes, issues that have seen many a foreign oil and gas investor run aground in the country.
There has been some positive news on one issue that could make-or-break the West Medvezhye project. Earlier this month VOG signed a gas distribution protocol with Russian gas giant Gazprom, which controls the countrys only gas pipeline network. This is seen as the first step in securing a long term gas offtake arrangement, which will be key to monetising the reserves at West Medvezhye.
Its important to remember that the protocol is not a legally binding contract but any co-operation with the energy behemoth is good news. Encouragingly Gazprom subsidiary NGP has agreed to provide VOG with technical and procurement assistance. Even so, there is still some way for VOG to travel with this possible company-maker of a project and investors should not get too carried away until more work has been done with the drillbit - and Gazprom is fully committed to transporting the gas to markets in Russia and beyond.