http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

niceonecyril

Who did you say wrote this last articular ?

Must say I like that last post cyril.,.

still a big risk hence i am out.....trade in betweeeeeeeeeen.

Interesting article, but there are a great many 'I do not see' & 'I do not think' statements which are not facts, but opinions. Well put together, but does not change my opinion, in particular given that the sp has sunk back to the sub 280p level.

Posts under the user name of 5professor.

Oilman is a good source.

just out on iii

I am sorry but due to these boards wanting all info spelling out to them ....no riddles
And the fact that the company watches all posts They are not thick.
It does not take a lot to work out where it's come from.
All I will say is we are getting bigger.

DO NOT TRADE ON WHAT I SAY

All the best
Oilman63

< http://ceraweek.rmxpres.com/webcast/data/Cera20124EFHI03061420/main.htm#

Hawrami's presentation is very illuminating
Reading between the lines it is clear to me that Shaikan is indeed a huge find and very relevant to the 1m (2014) then 2m bpd by (2018)targets
"I anticipate a lot of (consolidation)movement in the market this year," he said in the Q&A
On the contracts and Bagdhad debate he said there will be a resolution: "2012 will reach agreements with all concerned contracts will be honoured and finalised" ec, etc
Well worth the listen

noc is he the nutty professor?

No its Eddie Murphy

From NT, SH6 flying,drilling like lightening,no water?

TNP/EM

Comment
Hi Lucian.
I think you have missed the fact that the said reserves have been indepentently verified. The oil is there. The risk here, and it’s huge, is Iraqi politics.

Just look at the size of Shaikan(take the distance between wells),

SH-1 and SH-3: Both close to the green blob labelled Shaikan-1B
SH-2: Shaikan-B Location (around 9 km east of SH-1/3)
SH-4: Shaikan-D Location (around 6 km west of SH-1/3)
SH-5: Shaikan-G Location (around 15 km north-east of SH-1/3)
SH-6: Shaikan-C Location (around 18 km east of SH-1/3)


From S 4 is 6km to the left of 1/3 and 6 is 18km to the right, 24 KMS and no water???

So can we say we are past the estimated Oil water contact @ 2230m TVDSS?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
way past just had to stop for a bit to wipe the oil off the drill bit that we did not know was there.


This well needed to be stepped out a lot wider
As I said last night this is bigger than we think

All the best
Oilman

hsbc--little devils---from iii.
===============================================================================

09:16


HSBC report $/bbl_Solved


Robbean

2

hi Everyone,

I was struggling to make sense of HSBC's valuation and $ / bbl figure in their report ($2.33/bbl), which was well below figures we have been using. Well, I had a closer look at the report and found a sneaky little paragraph that explains the difference and leads to a very different conclusion...

HSBC state (p.44): "The key pricing measure that is pertinent to this report is the prices that companies are able to realise on domestic sales. At present the companies achieve USD50-70/bbl. We have assumed this discount will continue and so we assume the domestic price for liquids will run at a 50% discount to our oil price forecast."

So the $/bbl figures they quote include BOTH the 40% tax discount AND a further 50% reduction to reflect the domestic sales situation. This means that if and when exports resume, HSBC will then attribute $4.66 / bbl post tax, or $7.77 pre-tax.

I don't think I'm quite comparing like with like but this is very similar to Dalesman's NPV30 figure (albeit post-tax) of $7.33 and 2P value of $4.62 / bbl. The post-tax value also corresponds closely with JG's valuation figure, calculated from his remarks in New York to be $4.62 / bbl.

So what? Well you would be forgiven for thinking this was their discount for political risk... But no. A separate section detailing HSBC's valuation methods indicates ANOTHER 50% reduction for political risk. Put the two together and we have an effective 75% discount due to the politics/lack of exports, which is essentially a single issue.

Where does this leave us?
HSBC state (p.65): "Using the methodology set out in the valuation section, we derive an asset value for the company of 492p/share. On top of this we add risked exploration upside of 47p/share (full details of the breakdown of this valuation are given later). As we mentioned earlier, we have assumed a 50% discount to NAV for the political risk. This yields a target price of 280p."

At this point, they conveniently fail to mention the 50% discount they have already applied to their $ / bbl figure. Remove this and we are left with an unrisked asset value of 984p, or 492p when discounting by 50% for political risk. Adding exploration upside we have 1078p and 539p, respectively.

I think it's fair to say HSBC are understating the case when they say:
"We believe we have taken a conservative view on the valuations of the companies. There is scope for these valuations to increase as the political tensions ease and the ability to export improves." (p.45)

It would have been nice if they had added "In fact, a complete resolution of the politics and resumption of exports would increase our valuation four-fold, based on present OiP figures. With updates due any time from Sh-4, 5, and 6, we rate GKP a STONKING BUY at these levels"

But this wouldn't have served their clients who wanted in at the lowest possible price now, would it?

I hope this helps anyone else who has struggled to reconcile the figures in the report and those of Dalesman, BBBS, TPO, Gramacho and others who have studied the PSC terms. Not least because the report has been used as a catalyst to send the sp tumbling.

Good luck all- Rob


Time for walkies, gracie.

Seems theirs a little bit of Squeeky bottom time,due to Exxons presentation today.

http://ir.exxonmobil.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=115024&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=4680210#

What it should do is to clear up the question of KRG v ICG,once and for all.

bet it doesn't ..... what you hear and see is irrelevant compared to what you do not

Your probably right, just picking up on several posts from a few nervy PI's.

Exxons presentation is on webcast,picking up on comments,they have confirmed KRG contracts?

ut @ 286.5P.

Its the big question acquisitions, he said that he would like to buy....in the US....and things which are synergistic with what they are doing...asset acquisitions because of the value, and willing partners..