http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

ut @ 286.5P.

Its the big question acquisitions, he said that he would like to buy....in the US....and things which are synergistic with what they are doing...asset acquisitions because of the value, and willing partners..

http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=PINK:GUKYF

$4.69 = £2.9646P

A well thought out post,with a little opptomisum.

Dalesman
Thanks for that top notch post earlier. One or two points arise from that.

Looking at oil volumes at Shaikan first.
The 10.5 Bn Barrels P50 really is historic, a whole 4 months old in fact ! Still quite a long time in consideration of what progress has been made at Shaikan since then.

To achieve further upgrades, most were looking for the SH-4 test results, data from a completed SH-5 and SH-6 and the Fracture Study. Since the 23rd January ops update we have had no further Ops news. I think that the GKP BoD are playing a blinder by holding back until the time is right. I was hoping they would do this and behind the scenes get the rate of drilling progress moving very quickly, which appears to be happening according to a couple of recent reports.

Oilman63 this morning
08:57 Re: Nobletrader? oilman63 12

Thanks oilman,

So can we say we are past the estimated Oil water contact @ 2230m TVDSS?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
way past just had to stop for a bit to wipe the oil off the drill bit that we did not know was there.

This well needed to be stepped out a lot wider
As I said last night this is bigger than we think

All the best
Oilman
-----------------------

From nobletrader
GKP Today 01:20

Sh-6 drilling like lightening , problem is though not a drop of............................................................ water
l
Hope the pesky singapore slingers didn't fuk you all over yest
------------------------------

From 9th to 23rd Jan SH-5 had been drilling ahead at a rate of 40 metres per day and if reasonable rates have been sustained or even increased, we could be at the expected TD within a week, maybe two. If they got up to a sustained 50 m/day it is possible that the expected TD could have already been reached.

With very encouraging official and unofficial reports on the Shaikan 4 test results, the reports as above from reliable sources on progress at SH-6 of further unexpected oil, no OWC, needing to step out further and this is bigger than we think, have very major implications for very substantial oil volume increases.

All in all the 10.5 billion P50 really is looking a long way backwards now, historic. Taking more note of the likes of John Gerstenlauer having already hinted at 18billion OIP and Todd having talked of doubling of the figures. There’s also the latest BBBS NAV numbers.

BBBS -- Latest GKP NAV extract:--
I’ve been steady as a rock on my 100 billion barrels across all four Blocks for quite some time now. I started out by saying “I ain’t being conservative no more”, but alas and alack, Shaikan keeps showing me up – as I have admitted in several of my more recent posts. Let me be clear – my current view is that 100 billion barrels is DEFINITELY conservative. I have been working on a post for some time now that attempts to justify why Shaikan will most likley end up containing 30+ billion barrels.
-------------------

Although there has been little officially announced operationally, it looks very likely that that we are already into the range of the JG and TK figures of 18-21 Billion barrels at Shaikan and heading for the BBBS numbers of 30+ Billion barrels at Shaikan.

On the valuation side shouldn’t more notice be taken of several factors outside the ‘Traditional’ Western world ways of valuation ? Such factors as the way the Chinese would look at valuation should be included together with the Globally Strategic importance of Shaikan and the Greater Shaikan super-giant oilfield, the energy security of nations. A Strategic Premium.
The £17.50 you mention in your article reads to me as being for Shaikan if the OIP is doubled there from the 10.5 bn mark. Is that correct ?

Finally, being ring fenced by Exxon into a non-competitive offer for all or part of GKP is the last thing I want to see, I doubt they will go beyond a lowball bid. It strikes me that Anti-Competition Practise laws would apply to this, not only for Exxon but any other involved parties which might just include the KRG.
PW should certainly be looking for strong competition in a bidding process and be able to drum up plenty of interest, would find it extraordinary if they didn’t with the nature of what is on offer.

I think we need assurances from the GKP BoD that they will not accept or recommend any bid, non-competitive or competitive, for all or part of Shaikan/GKP before shareholders are consulted in either case. We do need a competitive and open bidding process. The chance of being railroaded by Exxon as a sole bidder should be stamped out.


The post from Oilman63 on SH-6 really is excellent news, needs confirming but we know he is a reliable source. Looking forward to getting that next Operations Update, but only when the timing is right.

noc just try to relax you remind us of oily rag.

He's got to boost his pension some how hal ;)

£3+ back on the cards today.,.

looks like bears being squeezed a bit + end of week closing of shorts

Any one got the full Iraq report out on Exxon.
By Ben Van Heuvelen and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published March 9, 2012 Faced with an ultimatum from the Iraqi government - to decide between doing business with Baghdad or the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region - ExxonMobil has made its choice: both.

In recent weeks, as the Iraqi government has ratcheted up the pressure, sources say the U.S. government has also made efforts to broker a "freeze" on the Kurdistan deals.

But at a Thursday meeting with financial analysts at the New York Stock Exchange, Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson confirmed that his company intended to ...

as i have posted before ..... forget the public outpourings; imo, likelihood is that an inter-governmental deal will be struck behind the scenes ..... don't forget, iraq (baghdad) needs massive amounts of capital expenditure to rebuild its infrastructure as well as its own oil industry

Good morning BB,nice start to the day(helping my pension,lol),not unexpected after US's performence yesterday.
H don't worry i'm happy with this stock, enjoy looking around various boards and sharing info,as not to much on here.

Cynic yes i'm sure theirs much going on behind the scenes,both with as youpoint out ICG and PW on behalf of GKP?

BB a little of that release,



—Iraq: Exxon remains committed to production agreements it signed with leaders in Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraqi officials have criticized Exxon's dealings with the semi-autonomous region and have asked the oil giant to choose between its contract with the Kurds and another production contract with the central Iraqi government. "We're committed to both of those" contracts, Tillerson said. He wouldn't comment further

another production contract with the central Iraqi government - which is highly ambiguous .... it does NOT say that baghdad is looking to cancel EXISTING contracts, though that is the way many have interpreted it

The fact remains that the oil exports need to go ahead and the Kurds are doing something about it instead of that lot in Bagdad who can't seem to get their act together !.

Exxon gave an analyst results presentation today, this is the headline from Reuters...

March 8 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp:

CEO tillerson says company is committed to both kurdish and iraqi oil developments


http://www.xe.com/news/2012/03/08/2527881.htm?utm_source=RSS...

From the Q&A, Exxon's boss Rex Tillerson said that they were after "asset type" acquisitions

Yesterday Ashti Hawrami spoke at a CERA jolly. He is the Kurdistani Minister for Natural Resources

Highlights...

...by the end of 2014 KRG oil production will at 1mb/d

...by 2019 KRG will be able to produce 2 million barrels of oil per day

...expecting significant consolidations, in terms of mergers & acquisitions in Kurdistan

More news fromthe KRG.

RG is planning another pipeline all the way from Kurdistan to Ceyhan to carry 1M BOPD and will cost $2Billion ..

Additonally KRG is planning ( with turkey's agreement ) to tie in more pipelines to the other Turkish pipelines like the Baku-tbilisi- turkey and others..

Ashti also seemed genuinely sorry that KRG spent 2 years from 2006-2008 trying to negotiate with ICG/baghdad on oil law and it was a wasted effort.. He sounded pretty much as if ICG/Baghdad was almost a non event now . I believe this confidence comes from KRG -Turkey realignment and KRG this is much progressed than meets the eye..

Also from EXXONs presentation,

From the Q&A,
Exxon's boss Rex Tillerson said that they were after "asset type" acquisitions

http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20120304053739/Exxons_Kurdistan

http://ir.mol.hu/sites/default/files/en/2011Q4/IR%20presentation%20update%20-%202012-2014_INA%20m%C3%B3dos%C3%ADt%C3%A1s%20-%20final0301.pdf

March Presentatiom from MOL.

http://p2.markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/research/Markets/Companies/Summary?s=GKP:LSE

Also recommended by FT.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/11/hbos-verdict-executive-pay?newsfeed=true

Every now and again a stock captures the imagination of the UK's band of private stock-market punters. Obsession might be a better description. Gulf Keystone Petroleum, an Aim-listed firm that has found a large quantity of oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, is the current object of their fervour.

If you got in early, Gulf Keystone has indeed been a winner, as the size of its discovery in the Shaikan field has become clearer. The share price rose from 12p in mid-2009 to 100p by the start of 2010. It was a quick step then to 200p and this year's action has been just as dramatic. There was a rapid rise to 400p, albeit followed by a descent this week to just below 300p, including a 24% fall on Tuesday as the market fretted that ExxonMobil might pull out of Kurdistan. Still, if you got in at any time apart from about six weeks this year, you're in the money. Punters should be happy, shouldn't they?

They're not. Some are spitting tacks. Some, on the internet, are threatening to boycott HSBC. That's because Peter Hitchens, an analyst at the bank, dared to express a cautious view this week. In an 80-page analysis of the Iraqi oil industry, he argued that its value might take longer to realise than many think.

Specifically, he said this about the Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI), where Gulf Keystone's find is located: "Although we acknowledge the attractions of the KRI's substantial exploration potential, we believe the corresponding risk is also extremely high. The simmering dispute between the autonomous Kurdish regional government and federal Iraq is likely to make it difficult to export crude and obtain payment for these exports. This could prevent projects from proceeding as planned, which would affect shareholder value."

Surely that's reasonable. Valuing Iraqi oil explorers is not just a matter of totting up potential barrels; it's about assessing political risk. Potential buyers of the Shaikan discovery will be making the same calculations. "We doubt that a potential buyer would want to pay a price that reflected the full asset value at this stage," concluded Hitchens. That's reasonable too. His valuation is 280p a share, or £2.4bn, which will still strike many as generous. If some punters choose to see a sober opinion as heresy, they're a danger to themselves.