http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=PINK:GUKYF

$4.69 = £2.9646P

A well thought out post,with a little opptomisum.

Dalesman
Thanks for that top notch post earlier. One or two points arise from that.

Looking at oil volumes at Shaikan first.
The 10.5 Bn Barrels P50 really is historic, a whole 4 months old in fact ! Still quite a long time in consideration of what progress has been made at Shaikan since then.

To achieve further upgrades, most were looking for the SH-4 test results, data from a completed SH-5 and SH-6 and the Fracture Study. Since the 23rd January ops update we have had no further Ops news. I think that the GKP BoD are playing a blinder by holding back until the time is right. I was hoping they would do this and behind the scenes get the rate of drilling progress moving very quickly, which appears to be happening according to a couple of recent reports.

Oilman63 this morning
08:57 Re: Nobletrader? oilman63 12

Thanks oilman,

So can we say we are past the estimated Oil water contact @ 2230m TVDSS?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
way past just had to stop for a bit to wipe the oil off the drill bit that we did not know was there.

This well needed to be stepped out a lot wider
As I said last night this is bigger than we think

All the best
Oilman
-----------------------

From nobletrader
GKP Today 01:20

Sh-6 drilling like lightening , problem is though not a drop of............................................................ water
l
Hope the pesky singapore slingers didn't fuk you all over yest
------------------------------

From 9th to 23rd Jan SH-5 had been drilling ahead at a rate of 40 metres per day and if reasonable rates have been sustained or even increased, we could be at the expected TD within a week, maybe two. If they got up to a sustained 50 m/day it is possible that the expected TD could have already been reached.

With very encouraging official and unofficial reports on the Shaikan 4 test results, the reports as above from reliable sources on progress at SH-6 of further unexpected oil, no OWC, needing to step out further and this is bigger than we think, have very major implications for very substantial oil volume increases.

All in all the 10.5 billion P50 really is looking a long way backwards now, historic. Taking more note of the likes of John Gerstenlauer having already hinted at 18billion OIP and Todd having talked of doubling of the figures. There’s also the latest BBBS NAV numbers.

BBBS -- Latest GKP NAV extract:--
I’ve been steady as a rock on my 100 billion barrels across all four Blocks for quite some time now. I started out by saying “I ain’t being conservative no more”, but alas and alack, Shaikan keeps showing me up – as I have admitted in several of my more recent posts. Let me be clear – my current view is that 100 billion barrels is DEFINITELY conservative. I have been working on a post for some time now that attempts to justify why Shaikan will most likley end up containing 30+ billion barrels.
-------------------

Although there has been little officially announced operationally, it looks very likely that that we are already into the range of the JG and TK figures of 18-21 Billion barrels at Shaikan and heading for the BBBS numbers of 30+ Billion barrels at Shaikan.

On the valuation side shouldn’t more notice be taken of several factors outside the ‘Traditional’ Western world ways of valuation ? Such factors as the way the Chinese would look at valuation should be included together with the Globally Strategic importance of Shaikan and the Greater Shaikan super-giant oilfield, the energy security of nations. A Strategic Premium.
The £17.50 you mention in your article reads to me as being for Shaikan if the OIP is doubled there from the 10.5 bn mark. Is that correct ?

Finally, being ring fenced by Exxon into a non-competitive offer for all or part of GKP is the last thing I want to see, I doubt they will go beyond a lowball bid. It strikes me that Anti-Competition Practise laws would apply to this, not only for Exxon but any other involved parties which might just include the KRG.
PW should certainly be looking for strong competition in a bidding process and be able to drum up plenty of interest, would find it extraordinary if they didn’t with the nature of what is on offer.

I think we need assurances from the GKP BoD that they will not accept or recommend any bid, non-competitive or competitive, for all or part of Shaikan/GKP before shareholders are consulted in either case. We do need a competitive and open bidding process. The chance of being railroaded by Exxon as a sole bidder should be stamped out.


The post from Oilman63 on SH-6 really is excellent news, needs confirming but we know he is a reliable source. Looking forward to getting that next Operations Update, but only when the timing is right.

noc just try to relax you remind us of oily rag.

He's got to boost his pension some how hal ;)

£3+ back on the cards today.,.

looks like bears being squeezed a bit + end of week closing of shorts

Any one got the full Iraq report out on Exxon.
By Ben Van Heuvelen and Staff of Iraq Oil Report
Published March 9, 2012 Faced with an ultimatum from the Iraqi government - to decide between doing business with Baghdad or the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region - ExxonMobil has made its choice: both.

In recent weeks, as the Iraqi government has ratcheted up the pressure, sources say the U.S. government has also made efforts to broker a "freeze" on the Kurdistan deals.

But at a Thursday meeting with financial analysts at the New York Stock Exchange, Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson confirmed that his company intended to ...

as i have posted before ..... forget the public outpourings; imo, likelihood is that an inter-governmental deal will be struck behind the scenes ..... don't forget, iraq (baghdad) needs massive amounts of capital expenditure to rebuild its infrastructure as well as its own oil industry

Good morning BB,nice start to the day(helping my pension,lol),not unexpected after US's performence yesterday.
H don't worry i'm happy with this stock, enjoy looking around various boards and sharing info,as not to much on here.

Cynic yes i'm sure theirs much going on behind the scenes,both with as youpoint out ICG and PW on behalf of GKP?

BB a little of that release,



—Iraq: Exxon remains committed to production agreements it signed with leaders in Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraqi officials have criticized Exxon's dealings with the semi-autonomous region and have asked the oil giant to choose between its contract with the Kurds and another production contract with the central Iraqi government. "We're committed to both of those" contracts, Tillerson said. He wouldn't comment further

another production contract with the central Iraqi government - which is highly ambiguous .... it does NOT say that baghdad is looking to cancel EXISTING contracts, though that is the way many have interpreted it

The fact remains that the oil exports need to go ahead and the Kurds are doing something about it instead of that lot in Bagdad who can't seem to get their act together !.

Exxon gave an analyst results presentation today, this is the headline from Reuters...

March 8 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp:

CEO tillerson says company is committed to both kurdish and iraqi oil developments


http://www.xe.com/news/2012/03/08/2527881.htm?utm_source=RSS...

From the Q&A, Exxon's boss Rex Tillerson said that they were after "asset type" acquisitions

Yesterday Ashti Hawrami spoke at a CERA jolly. He is the Kurdistani Minister for Natural Resources

Highlights...

...by the end of 2014 KRG oil production will at 1mb/d

...by 2019 KRG will be able to produce 2 million barrels of oil per day

...expecting significant consolidations, in terms of mergers & acquisitions in Kurdistan

More news fromthe KRG.

RG is planning another pipeline all the way from Kurdistan to Ceyhan to carry 1M BOPD and will cost $2Billion ..

Additonally KRG is planning ( with turkey's agreement ) to tie in more pipelines to the other Turkish pipelines like the Baku-tbilisi- turkey and others..

Ashti also seemed genuinely sorry that KRG spent 2 years from 2006-2008 trying to negotiate with ICG/baghdad on oil law and it was a wasted effort.. He sounded pretty much as if ICG/Baghdad was almost a non event now . I believe this confidence comes from KRG -Turkey realignment and KRG this is much progressed than meets the eye..

Also from EXXONs presentation,

From the Q&A,
Exxon's boss Rex Tillerson said that they were after "asset type" acquisitions

http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20120304053739/Exxons_Kurdistan

http://ir.mol.hu/sites/default/files/en/2011Q4/IR%20presentation%20update%20-%202012-2014_INA%20m%C3%B3dos%C3%ADt%C3%A1s%20-%20final0301.pdf

March Presentatiom from MOL.

http://p2.markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/research/Markets/Companies/Summary?s=GKP:LSE

Also recommended by FT.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/11/hbos-verdict-executive-pay?newsfeed=true

Every now and again a stock captures the imagination of the UK's band of private stock-market punters. Obsession might be a better description. Gulf Keystone Petroleum, an Aim-listed firm that has found a large quantity of oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, is the current object of their fervour.

If you got in early, Gulf Keystone has indeed been a winner, as the size of its discovery in the Shaikan field has become clearer. The share price rose from 12p in mid-2009 to 100p by the start of 2010. It was a quick step then to 200p and this year's action has been just as dramatic. There was a rapid rise to 400p, albeit followed by a descent this week to just below 300p, including a 24% fall on Tuesday as the market fretted that ExxonMobil might pull out of Kurdistan. Still, if you got in at any time apart from about six weeks this year, you're in the money. Punters should be happy, shouldn't they?

They're not. Some are spitting tacks. Some, on the internet, are threatening to boycott HSBC. That's because Peter Hitchens, an analyst at the bank, dared to express a cautious view this week. In an 80-page analysis of the Iraqi oil industry, he argued that its value might take longer to realise than many think.

Specifically, he said this about the Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI), where Gulf Keystone's find is located: "Although we acknowledge the attractions of the KRI's substantial exploration potential, we believe the corresponding risk is also extremely high. The simmering dispute between the autonomous Kurdish regional government and federal Iraq is likely to make it difficult to export crude and obtain payment for these exports. This could prevent projects from proceeding as planned, which would affect shareholder value."

Surely that's reasonable. Valuing Iraqi oil explorers is not just a matter of totting up potential barrels; it's about assessing political risk. Potential buyers of the Shaikan discovery will be making the same calculations. "We doubt that a potential buyer would want to pay a price that reflected the full asset value at this stage," concluded Hitchens. That's reasonable too. His valuation is 280p a share, or £2.4bn, which will still strike many as generous. If some punters choose to see a sober opinion as heresy, they're a danger to themselves.

big drilling update on rns ...... synopsis below

Gulf Keystone today provides an update on its ongoing exploration and appraisal programme in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which includes the Shaikan block, a major discovery with independently audited gross oil-in-place volumes of between 8 billion barrels to 13.4 billion barrels calculated on the P90 to P10 basis, with a mean value of 10.5 billion barrels ................ John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Operating Officer commented: "We believe that these new results of the ongoing Shaikan-4 well testing programme are excellent, confirming our early understanding that this well may prove to be our best one to date in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. We anticipate that future test production from Shaikan-4 will significantly increase our existing production level, which reached 6,970 gross barrels of oil per day on 4 March 2012. In parallel to the continuing increase in the test production of the Shaikan crude, our work on the Shaikan export pipeline project is progressing. In addition to a number of important operational developments on the Shaikan block, we are pleased to report on the progress in the Ber Bahr-1 exploration well drilling activities and to present results of an independent report by Dynamic Global Advisors on estimated resources for the Aqra/ Bekhme anticline on the Akri-Bijeel block. The substantial remaining potential of the Akri-Bijeel block is currently being targeted by the Operator's 2012/13 wide-ranging exploration, appraisal and early development programme."

12 March 2012



Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)

("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")



Kurdistan Operational Update

Gulf Keystone today provides an update on its ongoing exploration and appraisal programme in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which includes the Shaikan block, a major discovery with independently audited gross oil-in-place volumes of between 8 billion barrels to 13.4 billion barrels calculated on the P90 to P10 basis, with a mean value of 10.5 billion barrels.

Shaikan-4 Appraisal Well



The well testing programme for the Shaikan-4 appraisal well, drilled 6 km to the west of the Shaikan-1 discovery well, remains ongoing, with six out of seven planned tests completed to date. Portions of major intervals, such as the Kurre Chine, Butmah, Mus, Alan and Sargelu formations will continue to be tested and so far aggregate flow rates in excess of 14,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("boepd") have been achieved. Portions of the well that appear to be high quality oil reservoir on the electric logs, and where proven commercial flow rates were achieved by testing previous wells, will not be tested.



The first five tests have been conducted in the northern "footwall" - on the lower side of the inclined fault bounding the Shaikan structure. This is the first occurrence of flow from the footwall and proves an extension of the Triassic and Jurassic reservoirs outside the central part of the structure. The latest test (Test 6) is being conducted in the "hanging wall" (the upper side of the inclined fault) from a new reservoir in the uppermost Sargelu formation which had not been previously flow tested. The test is ongoing and rates in excess of 4,000 boepd have been recorded.



Shaikan-5 Appraisal Well



After drilling the Shaikan-5 appraisal well, 6 km to the north-east of the Shaikan-2 appraisal well, to the depth of 1,876 metres in the Jurassic, it became necessary to drill a sidetrack due to a portion of the drill string becoming stuck in the hole. The sidetrack operations were successfully performed at the depth of 1,370 metres, after which the Shaikan-5 drilling operations have resumed below 1,730 metres, to continue drilling to the estimated total depth ("TD") of 3,500 metres, subject to technical conditions.



Shaikan-6 Appraisal Well



The Shaikan-6 appraisal well, 9 km to the east of the Shaikan-2 appraisal well, is currently drilling a 12.25" hole at the depth of 2,058 metres in the Jurassic. The well will drill to the estimated TD of 3,800 metres subject to technical conditions.



Shaikan-7 Exploration Well



The tendering process has commenced for a rig to drill the Shaikan-7 exploration well, which will target the lower Triassic and the Permian, the deepest prospective undrilled horizons of the Shaikan structure.



Shaikan Extended Well Test



As part of the ongoing Extended Well Test ("EWT") on the Shaikan block, the output from the Shaikan-1 & 3 EWT facility reached 137,060 gross barrels of oil between 1 January and 6 March 2012. Due to unprecedented cold weather and poor visibility, combined with work required to connect an additional 20,000 barrel storage tank, the average test production between 1 January and 25 February was 2,077 gross barrels of oil per day ("bopd"). Since 25 February test production has averaged 5,641 gross bopd.



Shaikan Field Export Pipeline Project



On 6 March 2012, Gulf Keystone initiated a tendering process for the export pipeline site construction and installation for the Shaikan field export pipeline project.



As part of the ongoing tendering process for the materials procurement for the Shaikan field export pipeline project, which was announced on 12 January 2012, bids are currently being received with the technical and commercial evaluation to follow.

Gulf Keystone is the Operator of the Shaikan block with a working interest of 75 per cent and is partnered with Kalegran Ltd. (a 100 per cent subsidiary of MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc.) and Texas Keystone Inc., which have working interests of 20 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.

Akri-Bijeel Block: Aqra/ Bekhme Anticline Resources



Following the completion of the Bekhme-1 exploration well testing programme in December 2011, after the well reached TD at 5,000 metres in the Triassic, Gulf Keystone has received results of an independent evaluation of estimated petroleum resources for the Aqra/Bekhme anticline on the Akri-Bijeel block by Dynamic Global Advisors (DGA), independent Houston-based exploration consultants.



The DGA report, based on the Bekhme-1 wireline logging data and 2D seismic data, while recognizing the fact that no hydrocarbons had been produced to surface, has indicated a significant range of between 2.5 billion barrels and 5.4 billion barrels of gross oil-in-place volumes calculated on the P90 to P10 basis, with the mean resource estimate for the reservoirs in the Aqra/ Bekhme anticline of 3.9 billion barrels. While this range of resource estimate is significant, a considerable portion of the oil resource is likely to comprise heavy oil. Further evaluation would be required as to whether the oil is commercially recoverable.



DGA's previous assessments of assets on behalf of Gulf Keystone included independent evaluation of the Shaikan discovery, including two major upgrades of the gross oil-in-place volumes announced in April and November 2011, as well as a preliminary evaluation of the Sheikh Adi resources (1 billion barrels to 3 billion barrels calculated on the P90 to P10 basis) announced in August 2011.



Akri-Bijeel Block: Aqra-1 Appraisal Well



The first appraisal well to assess the Bijell discovery on the Akri-Bijeel block, is being drilled 8 km to the north-west of the Bijell‑1 discovery well and 26 km to the west-northwest of the Bekhme-1 exploration well. After reaching the depth of 989 metres, the Aqra-1 drilling operations have been temporarily halted in order to repair the rig following a lightning strike. Once the drilling operations have resumed, Aqra-1 will drill to an estimated TD of over 4,700 metres in the Triassic subject to technical conditions.



Gulf Keystone has a 20 per cent working interest in the Akri-Bijeel block, operated by Kalegran Ltd., a 100 per cent subsidiary of MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc., which holds 80 per cent working interest in the block. The Operator's P50 resource estimate for the Bijell discovery is 2.4 billion barrels of oil-in-place, while the ongoing 2012/13 exploration and appraisal programme is targeting existing and identified hydrocarbon prospects in the Akri-Bijeel block.



Ber Bahr-1 Exploration Well



After the setting of 7" casing at the depth of 3,343 metres in the Triassic, the first exploration well on the Ber Bahr block is drilling at the depth of 3,347 metres.



Gulf Keystone has a 40 per cent working interest in the Ber Bahr block, operated by Genel Energy, which holds a 40 per cent working interest in the block. The Kurdistan Regional Government has a 20 per cent carried interest in the Ber Bahr Production Sharing Contract. The Operator's resource estimate for the Ber Bahr block is 1.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent-initially-in-place.



John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Operating Officer commented:



"We believe that these new results of the ongoing Shaikan-4 well testing programme are excellent, confirming our early understanding that this well may prove to be our best one to date in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. We anticipate that future test production from Shaikan-4 will significantly increase our existing production level, which reached 6,970 gross barrels of oil per day on 4 March 2012. In parallel to the continuing increase in the test production of the Shaikan crude, our work on the Shaikan export pipeline project is progressing. In addition to a number of important operational developments on the Shaikan block, we are pleased to report on the progress in the Ber Bahr-1 exploration well drilling activities and to present results of an independent report by Dynamic Global Advisors on estimated resources for the Aqra/ Bekhme anticline on the Akri-Bijeel block. The substantial remaining potential of the Akri-Bijeel block is currently being targeted by the Operator's 2012/13 wide-ranging exploration, appraisal and early development programme."