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Xcite Energy - North Sea Heavy Oil (XEL)     

Proselenes - 22 Oct 2009 11:14

.

cynic - 16 Oct 2010 08:57 - 305 of 3002

Pros - you can't extrapolate (this week's new word for Emu!) like that ...... north sea with infrastructure and south atlantic with none bear no meaningful comparison

Proselenes - 16 Oct 2010 09:08 - 306 of 3002

XEL is north sea !!!!!!!

cynic - 16 Oct 2010 09:14 - 307 of 3002

sorry - will move to correct thread!

Proselenes - 19 Oct 2010 09:58 - 308 of 3002

Looking perky today. Wonder if they have completed first phase of drilling ?

Proselenes - 19 Oct 2010 09:58 - 309 of 3002

Looking perky today. Wonder if they have completed first phase of drilling ?

Proselenes - 19 Oct 2010 10:02 - 310 of 3002

From another board......

Still have second phase to do, horizontal.



"XEL hit TD last night, 50ft early (oil) 3x coring runs to do.... soft sands !!!"

markymar - 19 Oct 2010 10:08 - 311 of 3002

Rumour has it they have hit oil

Proselenes - 19 Oct 2010 10:17 - 312 of 3002

Yes, that should be the case.

Now just need to drill the horizontal and flow test it.

Good flow test then 400p per share price in November IMO.

Enjoy the ride !

cynic - 19 Oct 2010 10:31 - 313 of 3002

no RNS yet

Dil - 19 Oct 2010 10:32 - 314 of 3002

Nice !

Proselenes - 19 Oct 2010 11:30 - 315 of 3002

Certainly shaken some of the weak holders out, goodbye to them and should makes things stronger for when the new comes out officially on progress of the 1st phase.

required field - 19 Oct 2010 11:37 - 316 of 3002

If it goes to 400p.....a bottle of bubbly will be in order in my household !.....(not the expensive stuff)...musn't over do it.....

cynic - 19 Oct 2010 11:39 - 317 of 3002

there isn't an announcement of any kind yet, so keep a lid on your excitement
in fact sp was at this level a few weeks back

required field - 19 Oct 2010 11:41 - 318 of 3002

Well if I remember correctly.....this has already flowed once before...so fingers crossed....

Proselenes - 19 Oct 2010 11:41 - 319 of 3002

A successful 1st phase (as it appears to be, well drilled ok, found oil in nice soft sandstone) now derisks the next phase.

Probably at 90% chance of success now.

Come on, give me wonderful news in November and a 400p share price :) !!

champagne ronny - 19 Oct 2010 11:42 - 320 of 3002

another rumour going around is 'a major oil find in the north sea'. Any other plc drilling or just XEL?

required field - 19 Oct 2010 11:43 - 321 of 3002

Faroe Petroleum....but not in the north sea....

Proselenes - 19 Oct 2010 14:48 - 322 of 3002

1 minute chart with volume for XEL in Canada.

big.chart?symb=ca%3Axel&compidx=aaaaa%3A


1 C$ = 61.5257 pence

So 2C$ = 123p


.

Proselenes - 19 Oct 2010 15:28 - 323 of 3002

Worth going over the latest broker note for newbies.

Strong Buy with Target Price of 247p


Thursday 30 September

Xcite Energy* Strong Buy (from No Rec)

XEL.L / 109.5p / 158.8m / TP: 247p

Xcite has spudded its well on the Bentley field we therefore have taken the opportunity to re-visit our valuation. In addition new shares have been added to the register following the recent exercise of warrants. Our valuation matrix
is now as follows.

Table 1: Valuation matrix
Low Base High
NPV/share (p) - Unrisked 113 353 656
NPV/share (p) - Risked 79 247 459
Source: Company data, Arbuthnot estimates

The unrisked valuations reflect the slight dilution due to the recent conversion of 250,000 warrants. The risked valuations reflect the 70% chance of success which RPS Energy has determined for the well.

Now that the well has spudded we feel that it provides an ideal opportunity to upgrade our valuation to the base case (i.e. 122mmbbl of resource) scenario.

Table 2: CPR assumptions and outputs
Input assumption Low Base High
Capex (m) $1,881 $2,573 $2,661
Opex (m) $1,394 $2,135 $2,229
Oil price $80 Brent (flat real) $80 Brent (flat real) $80 Brent (flat real)
less 15% discount less 15% discount less 15% discount
Recoverable resource (mmbbl) 72.0 122.5 166.0
Field life (years) 13 15 15
Success case NPV10 (m) - New
terms* $282 $881 $1,635
Success case NPV10 (m) - Old
terms $181 $781 $1,535
Source: RPS Energy estimates, *includes new heavy oil incentives

The CPR does not include the additional 3D seismic data which was evaluated in 2009. The company now estimates that the field could contain in excess of 200mmbbl of recoverable oil, well in excess of the high scenario.

The company has also indicated that by employing enhanced oil recovery techniques the recovery factor could be increased substantially.

The well is due to drill for a maximum of 60 days which will be followed by a 5 day flow test. Post drilling the data gathered from the vertical and horizontal wells will be used to update the CPR. At this stage we should start to see some of the contingent resource base being converted into reserves.

We continue coverage with a Strong Buy recommendation and increase our target price to 247p (114p previously)."

Dil - 20 Oct 2010 00:11 - 324 of 3002

A broker getting something right , there's a novelty !

Sod the brokers ... chart looks pretty.
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