Right I havent beleived in investing directly in an oil company untill today and in the last few months have been investing in OIL SERVICE companys Hamworthy and Corac, you know the picks and shovels tale.

Anyway after doing a lot of research I really feel that SOCO INTERNATIONAL SIA as been left behind in the mass bull market on oil companies.

Forget, Burren, Regal, Dana and the rest in my opinion this is the one to be on.

So.....why buy Soco now?

Four inter-related reasons:

1) Newsflow is now very much in sight on several fronts. None of it has yet emerged though, so analysts have yet to revisit their old views and recommendations. There was, and indeed remains, a chance to get in before serious interest picks up again.

2) There is, IMO, a decent chance of some very large price rises within the next 6 months, accompanied by increased downside protection. Once newsflow starts, the shares will come back onto institutional radar screens - you can wait for it to emerge, or you can speculate now at what I think will prove to be a lower price -perhaps much lower!

3) The market thinks there is nothing happening and has gone to sleep on the prospects. You can see this in the broadly sideways drift and very low volumes on most days [until this week]. They are wrong. Yemen and perhaps Mongolia should provide some near-term good news.

4) The time to buy is when no-one else seems very interested.

And heres the last results from the company......................

Soco International PLC
02 September 2004

SOCO International plc

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2004

SOCO is an international oil and gas exploration and production company,
headquartered in London. The Company has interests in Vietnam, Mongolia, Yemen,
Libya, Tunisia and Thailand, with production operations in Yemen, Tunisia and
Mongolia. SOCO today announces interim results for the half year ended 30 June
2004.

HIGHLIGHTS

Operating profit of 4.1 million (2003: 4.2 million)

Net profit of 2.0 million (2003: 2.5 million)

Earnings per share of 2.9p (2003: 3.6p)

Cash balance of 26.7 million at half year end

Finalised the sale of an interest in ODEX creating a consortium of SOCO
(34%), Oilinvest (46%) and Gazprombank (20%) in the special purpose
entity to progress initiatives in Libya and other countries

Continued reinterpretation of existing 3D seismic and acquisition of 650
sq km of new 3D seismic in Vietnam prior to commencement of drilling in
Q1 2005

3D seismic programme completed in Mongolia with two wells drilled, both
apparent discoveries, and a third well spudded

First ever deviated Basement well drilling in East Shabwa in Yemen



Ed Story, President and Chief Executive of SOCO, said:

'Following an extended period of quiet preparation, the release of interim
results coincides with the commencement of a very active drilling programme for
SOCO, one that I believe has company transforming potential'

2 September 2004

ENQUIRIES:
SOCO International plc Tel: 020 7457 2020 (today)ENDS.

This could really be a craking stock and is worth getting in at these lowly price figures.

Please DYOR

cheers GF.

The volume of sales doesn't seem to look too heavy to me. Interesting that you say 515 Al, any reason for that? Would that be some Fib level from it's recent high or do you just see that as a support level? Don't really know too much about TA.

Just the last level it was at, gav. Not like me to have lobbed the CFD's now, but wanting to see if the 250 thing happens. You're right volume is lowish, but I'll look again at end of day.

Thanks for that Al. Looking more closely at the chart, I can see where you get the 515 from and why it ties in with a traders thoughts. Think I need to look in more detail at learning more about TA.

Buys out number sells, so unless there's a bit of news, which I doubt, as there is small volume assiciated with the trades, this is a tree shake.

Out of the total trades in the buy column, you can take out 35895 and add them to the sells since they look like 2 delayed sells. Even with that, buys still outnumber sells. Perhaps with the speed of the sells coming in at 14.47, MM's took the chance of a quick mark down. Looking at the volume of sells, it's still pretty light.

Did negative sentiment from the US also play a part in the tree shake? We do often go up after the dow opens.

May well be the case Sandrew, but who knows really. The sellers were American IMO so you may well have a point. As you say, we have risen previously when the Dow opens which again, may have a lot to do with US buyers.

After hours announcement, but it would seem to be the reason why.

Small stuff even so.

Soco International says Pontoil Intertrade sells shares
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Soco International PLC said Pontoil Intertrade Ltd has sold 250,000 ordinary shares, representing 0.35 pct, and now holds 15,005,543 s hares, representing 20.76 pct.

slm/

If I remember Pontoil is owned by a director? Can't be certain. There was an awful lot of companies owned by directors owning shares in SIA some years back. Dunno if this is still the case.

gav - re my stop level. This is not my normal tactic. I've loosened this one a bit because it's had a good run and I expect it to come back a bit. Ordinarily, I'd have bailed on the first MM coming back and cashed in.

So Pontoil have sold 250k, might explain some of the larger trades from previous days if someones picked them up who doesn't have to report it. They still have a large holding though. Pontoil is owned by a Dr Mario Contini and his son, Ettore Contini is a non-exec director of Soco. He bought the 40k on the 18th Feb and now holds 60k or 0.08%.

Al, thanks again for your traders thoughts. It's interesting to read how you are playing this as a trader.

gav thanks for the connection above.

I have again stolen it and pasted it on avdfn (you are credited of course), who are in the midst of a small discussion, apparently it has happened before in December 2002, Orale bought them and Pontoil ended up buying nearly twice that amount sold , a few weeks later.(davjo on TMF)

Odd move, sort of thing I do when I think too much.

That's why I no longer think.

gav - thought there was a link. Thx for digging it out.

sw - I think that was the kind of thing I was referring to earlier.

BTW, SIA is quite illiquid for this kind of level. You may find the bigger shareholders and directors lobbing some their way. Time will tell.

You mean this of course.

Hmmm.

So, you gave them the idea then?

Pack it up!

emptyend's comments from TMF mirrors our thoughts but igives much more.

Well worth a read.

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9150442

Starts
Obviously they would have been, since one of them would have clearly done the trade. Almost certainly it will be Canaccord who have the relationship with Pontoil.

Pontoil are in the position of being an obvious source of liquidity when the market is tight, as it clearly has been when the price has risen 10-20p with little trading, What happens, IMO, is that the broker establishes a level where Pontoil [or whomever] would be prepared to release blocks of stock in 100k clips or so....and if the buyer is prepared to pay that level then the price moves there quite sharply, clearing out all the little trades in between. If the buyer wants to do more than Pontoil [or whomever] then the price will then move up to the "next level" where business can be done in size.

If there are other large holders who are prepared to provide liquidity, then we would see volumes continuing high and the price drifting off as they compete to fill demand from the buyers. However, I don't think there is sufficient selling demand for this and see the markdown yesterday as a "tester" for the market once the news came out....or possibly an indication that the major buyers have done for now.

There is also the consideration that Pontoil is as entitled as any of the rest of us with meaningful holdings [relative to our assets!] to take profits from time to time if they were to think that the market might be getting a little ahead of itself. However, in the context of Pontoil's holding, I see the modest sale more as a "service" to whomever was looking for stock than anything else, especially coming so soon after their last purchase [albeit at a different level!].

As others have said, the identity of the buyers on this run-up is also of interest.......most likely to be institutional, I would guess, otherwise Pontoil would likely have held on. You can be pretty sure that the broker will have told Pontoil who was buying, as part of their plea to sell some stock.

ee

That's a good piece, sw

Re: yesterday afternoon's small sales. I'm guessing, but wasn't there a tip sheet story in the US (Red Zone?) late last year that there would be a 758% gain by 28th Feb? Seems possible that some will have borrowed to fund purchases, and were simply selling out at the end of that period, taking a modest 25% gain or so instead of 758%. I note that the latest blurb now has target date as 28th April!http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/TRV/WTRVEC91/

August, you're right re the tipsheet, Redzone, which is why I think there was some selling from the US. Also ties in with there being increased buying later on in the day when the Americans get up, which we have seen over the last few months. I think the original tip/ramp/hype from Redzone came out late last year in the run up to the last Libya round, end Jan? They then changed their "tip" stating end Feb for the next Libya round. My understanding is that this has now been delayed until April, which ties in with their new date. Of course, where they get the figure of 758% exactly is beyond me!

Re EE's post on pontoil, couldn't have summed it up any better, good post. Seems pretty logical that Pontoil may provide some liquidity to the market when needed.

I have previously put a note of thanks where emptyend will see it.

Big Al, you were on the money too............

sw - SIA was always a bit incestuous in that way right back to '99, when I first came across them at 44p. As I've said before, if it does get into the 350, expect some big volume as the bigger holders pass on to institutions.

I wouldn't necssarily expect big price moves if this happens, though!!

Nice to see a little uptick today.

"Incestuous"! Nice way to describe ownership Al! A few early buyers around this morning.