New Thread as requested by Wirral Owl.

6 Months Chart:-



10 Day Chart:-



Cheers

Ash

goldfinger,

and here is another article appearing on the cnn website in the form of reply to an investors question about selling stock and buying gold.


gn up for the Ask the Expert e-mail newsletter


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - I'm considering selling my stocks and investing my money in gold. What do you think of this move?

-- Lucy, San Francisco, Calif.

Not much, Lucy, not much. Oh, I know that when times get scary, people rush to the security of hard assets like gold, and that prices have been booming lately as it appears ever more likely that the U.S. will go to war with Iraq.

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On the days leading up to Secretary of State Colin Powell's speech outlining the case for war last Wednesday, for example, the price of gold bullion in New York climbed to just under $380 an ounce, it's highest level since 1996.

And gold stocks have also been among the hottest performers in an otherwise dismal market. Through the 12 months ending in early February, for example, Morningstar's Precious Metals fund category (which consists mostly of funds that own gold mining and refinining stocks) was up a stunning 46 percent -- that's right, 46 percent at a time when the S&P 500's total return over the same period was a negative 21 percent.

Yes, but...
So why am I not urging you to unload your stock portfolio now (IMMEDIATELY!) and snap up some gold bullion or gold stocks or funds?

Several reasons.

First, they're notoriously volatile. That's great if you manage to buy them before one of their occasional spikes in price. Obviously, the people who bought gold funds a year ago are congratulating themselves (deservedly or not) for being geniuses.


But if past gold cycles are any indication, people usually start buying only after the runup. Prior to the Gulf War in 1991, for example, gold prices soared to just under $405 an ounce. But people who bought in expectation of further gains were disappointed, as the price of gold began sinking thereafter because investors became convinced the war would be a short one.

Big gains in gold stocks and funds have also lured investors in, only to disappoint them soon after. Gold funds gained more than 90 percent in 1993. But they lost 48 percent over the next five years.

But times are really scary...
Who knows, maybe this time will be different. Maybe gold bullion and gold stocks and funds will continue to post big gains. I wouldn't count on it, though, since gold isn't the type of investment that generates steady gains over time.

Gold funds on fire


Fund Ticker 1-year return
First Eagle Gold SGGDX 65.5%
Van Eck Int'l Investors Gold INIVX 52.4%
Tocqueville Gold TGLDX 45.4%
American Century Global Gold BGEIX 39.5%
Fidelity Select Gold FSAGX 37.6%


*Returns through Feb. 5, 2003
Source: Morningstar, Inc.

It tends to give its gains in spurts with some extended down periods in between. Buy in at a high, and you can spend a long time waiting to get back to even. Of course, maybe you'll be smart enough to know when to jump in and then get out at the right time. But to my mind, that strategy is more akin to speculating than investing.

I suppose you can make a case for moving a bit of your money into gold -- say, maybe 5 percent or so. The rationale for doing that is that gold prices move in sync with stock prices. So even though gold itself is highly volatile, adding some to your stock portfolio can lower your portfolio's overall volatility because stocks and gold don't zig and zag at the same time.


But frankly, I'm not a big fan of using gold as a diversifier because I think you can find other investments that provide decent diversification but with better long-term return prospects than gold. And if I did use gold to increase my portfolio's diversity, I'd use gold stocks or, better yet, gold mutual funds, not gold bullion, which has higher transaction costs that cut into your gains (assuming you have gains).

So if you want to join the gold rush, my advice is keep your investment small, and stick to gold mutual funds. And don't forget that the same forces that drive up gold prices and gold stocks quickly, can push them down just as fast.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Walter Updegrave is a senior editor at MONEY Magazine and is the author of "Investing for the Financially Challenged." He can be seen regularly Monday mornings at 7:40 am on CNNfn.

avm,

down this morning, but gold price is up some $3/oz, so expect the avm price to improve. and while the situation in iraq remains unresolved, expect old price to rise further. i understand the next targer is $395/oz.

We seem to have had a few bad days, Arch. Will be asking Evil Knevil this evening where he thinks POG is going. Will give replt wed teatime.

regs GF.

heard chris lock this morning on cnbc: below 330 is bearish, above 398 is bullish. there has been a slight improvement in the pog and avm responded by rising a few percentage point having opened the day in the red.

Well Evil is more Bullish on Gold than he as ever been. Says the low POG price is a great opportunity to buy. Hes still looking at POG at $750 long term.
Feels dollar will weaken even further. When POG gos up he feels it will really take off.

GF.

good news goldfinger. and if this is correct then the current drops have been none other than atechnical corrections. yesterday gold rose be some $4.5 but as and avm followed in sympaty rising soem 3.5%. as i write, however, gold is down by over $5.

i would have thought as war gets closer the rush for gold wil intensify and stock sell off. the opposite appears to have happened. mind the usa market has another 3.5 hours to run during which anything may happen.

have just found out that a massive seller has just been cleaned out and that the shares have gone to a very good home , that must be one of the main reasons for depressing the share price past couple of weeks ,should be bullish from now , price ticked up after sales .

Yes BUD its good to see it ticking back up to 35p. There is speculation that the deal was a matched trade and that the buyer is indeed another Gold miner.

Do you feel that we could be on for a merger or a takeover?.
GF

avm,

the stage has been set for better things to come!

up today by over 10%. the dojji candlestick of yesterday status as a patteren reversal has been confirmed.

macd has touched zero on its way up. importantly, there has been a divergence between the histogram and the price action of late. the histo rose as the price went down. and the same histogram has plotted a bullish w.

sotchs and rsi are not particularly busslis as they stand at about mid range and pointing near flat.

all moving averages are heading up. 9 day sma has crossed over 18 day sma.

there has been a danger of head and shoulders developing but this has now gone. instead there appears to be the development of a rising trend. i say appear to be as it is early in the day to confirm whether this trend is going to develop or not. the situation will become clearer by the end of this week.

in the event that this trend is confirmed then the next target for this stock would be around the 40+ mark, depending on the true morphology of the trend.

last but not least, pog is up again.

Fingers crossed Arch.

GF.

.

Hammer Bottom/Dragonfly Doji on Friday:-

Nows the time to be back in Gold stocks. POG at 7 week high last night. Analysts around the world predicting gold will see new highs.

AVM the perfect play on POG at its low price of 26p. Now time to get in at these low levels.G

i`m in already and very disappointed so far, perhaps it will go now.

"i`m in already and very disappointed so far"

GOOD, I hope you are really pieved, preferably really pissed off!

However until it breaks 26.50p you are completely stuffed IMHO

lolol!(;-)0

`Mr.Ashley James posting at 4.54 am , totally bombed,
what a weird bloke.

Hello Ashley. It is Saturday night [edited] I thought I would try to re-establish friendly relations.

How is it going with you? What are your bright ideas? I see Redstone is on the up and TIG too.

I have gone a bundle on the gold shares viz. AVM HIF HEV HPD REI DROOY AU MDG and HMY. Any thoughts? There seems to be quite a buzz around HIF. Sold out my POG for a goodish (well reasonable) profit.

Good old CER, moving now, what a turn up eh?

Ps I was banned off moneyam for "HTML abuse" apparently but have been reinstated after eating some humble pie and promising to be good, which indeed I will be.

Yours etc

Pat.

Patrick,

How are you, good to see you here!

Andy. (ahkeen on ADVFN)

BTW what did you do to be banned form "html abuse"?

Hi Andy. Re earlier qs no richer than I was 6 months ago! I came on to this thread to see if the old Ashley magic would work again!

[deleted in the interests of niceness]

Er Andy it's alarmingly simple. You put a particular HTML tag inside the "carrots" <> if that shows. All subsequent text appears at the top of the thread (at least on ADVFN & moneyam).

Patrick,

Ok I didn't know that!

Ashley is not too active on here at present, at least in comparison to ADVFN, but this BB is still developing, and currently lacks volume of discussion threads.

I have noticed an increase in discussion and posters here in the last couple of weeks, and ADVFN posters are gradually coming over here.

Resource threads are rare at the moment, but I guess they too will start up once there is a greater volume of posters.

Andy.