New Projects and good prospects. will be the winner in 2004. IMO
25p in early 2004

Hi Grevis,

You're right, this does look a good bet. And from what i can make out, it doesnt seem like the company are putting all their eggs in one basket, thus spreading the risk. I dont know lots about oil companies, but spreading the risk, finding the oil and let others develop it sounds good to me.

gavdfc: Seems as though we are not the only ones who like this stock. Fidelity has joined Gartmore in topping up their holdings. Should be good for tomorrow's share price. This announcement was made just after 4.00 PM this afternoon:


RNS Number:3924A
Petroceltic International PLC
01 July 2004

Petroceltic International plc

01 July 2004


Petroceltic International plc ('Petroceltic' or the 'Company')

Holding in Company

The Company has received a notification dated 28 June 2004 from FMR Corp. and
Fidelity International Limited (together "Fidelity") stating that Fidelity hold
30,394,294 ordinary shares representing 6.13 per cent. of the Company's issued
ordinary share capital. The shares are held on behalf of a range of clients with
the following nominee/registered names;

Mellon Bank 19,545,887

Chase Manhattan Bank, London 7,575,811

Brown Brothers Harriman Ltd., LUX 861,250

Deutsche Bank AG London 674,228

HSBC 1,737,118

This was Gartmore's announcement:

RNS Number:8866Z
Petroceltic International PLC
17 June 2004


Petroceltic International plc ('Petroceltic' or the 'Company')

Holding in Company


The Company has received a notification dated 14th June 2004 from Gartmore
Investment Management plc stating that, Gartmore Investment Limited, Gartmore
Global Partners and Gartmore Fund Managers Limited hold, in aggregate,
41,345,349 ordinary shares of Euro0.0125 each in the Company, representing
approximately 8.34 per cent. of the Company's issued ordinary share capital.

17th June 2004


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END

Some good read here:

Global oil capacity growth hinges on mega-projects
Thu 1 July, 2004 13:44

By Jonathan Leff

LONDON (Reuters) - The smooth, prompt start-up of about a dozen big-ticket oil projects over the next 18 months is more important than ever to meeting global oil demand growth and keeping prices under control, analysts say.

These multi-million-dollar oilfield and pipeline plans should deliver 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of new production capacity before the end of 2005, mostly in non-OPEC areas such as the former Soviet Union, Brazil and West Africa, a Reuters survey found.

A host of second-tier developments adds more than one million bpd.

Delays to a few of these fields could propel oil's five-year price boom to new highs, with demand growth galloping at its fastest rate in 24 years and OPEC pumping closer to its own capacity than any time in more than a decade.

"The diminishing cushion of surplus capacity within OPEC means that there is real need for these big non-OPEC projects to come through," said Steve Turner of Commerzbank.

Just a few months ago analysts saw 2005 as a major test for OPEC, with a burst of new oil from non-cartel countries stealing market share. Now, the test is whether OPEC and other producers will be able to pump enough oil to keep up with consumption.

Driven by China's economic expansion, oil demand growth this year has surged an estimated 2.3 million bpd, while the rise in non-OPEC output will lag that substantially at only 1.2 million bpd, the International Energy Agency says.

Analysts expect average non-OPEC supply growth of around 0.8-1.4 million bpd next year, still likely to fall short of an estimated 1.5-2.0 million bpd rise in demand.

"The global oil industry has been caught out by two consecutive years of oil demand growth above two percent and production capacity has not risen fast enough to meet increased demand while maintaining a buffer of spare capacity," the Centre for Global Energy Studies said.

The shortfall in capacity growth next year has added a heightened sense of urgency for new fields to deliver on-time oil -- or risk a shortage.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is now producing crude to within one to two million bpd of its maximum, or less than three percent of the 80 million bpd world market, analysts estimate.

With such a small margin of error, relatively minor supply hiccups can have a major impact on oil prices, which a month ago soared to 21-year peaks over $40.

Major outages like the Iraqi pipeline sabotage in June and last week's Norwegian strike have kept the market on edge.

"Had these disruptions lasted for months, as opposed to days, there would likely not have been enough excess capacity available worldwide to make up for the total loss of exports, resulting in upward price pressure," the U.S. Department of Energy said in a weekly report.

"Since capacity expansion involves substantial investment and long lead times, minimal spare capacity for the mid-term appears likely, barring a significant decline in oil demand growth."

SOME PROJECTS PRONE TO DELAYS

The 11 mega-projects of more than 150,000 bpd expected onstream before the end of next year are heavily concentrated in the former Soviet Union, Brazil and West Africa, a Reuters survey found.

International oil majors have focused on big projects as a drive to improve profit margins force them into frontier areas to find the big fields that bolster profits.

These emerging provinces have already suffered setbacks and delays.

Shell's flagship 225,000 bpd Bonga field in Nigeria has already been pushed back by more than a year and will now start up "well into" 2005, while Brazil's numerous offshore platforms have also suffered repeated delays.

Russian and Caspian production growth depends heavily on three near-term pipeline projects bringing the oil to market, one of which still needs government approval.

More than three-quarters of the new mega-projects will launch next year, with the majority delivering peak flows quickly since they are largely pipeline or offshore developments.

Including smaller developments, more than 3.5 million bpd of capacity at platform should be started up next year, up from 2.5 million bpd this year, according to Robert Skinner, director of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies.

The estimates of new capacity next year are much higher than forecasts for non-OPEC production growth, which averages output over the year and takes into account declining production from mature basins like the North Sea, where production fell six percent last year.

CRUNCH MAY EASE

While the capacity crunch is big news now, there is no certainty it will last. OPEC's own capacity should increase in the medium-term, analysts say, while a near-term fall in prices should also take some of the pressure off.

"We believe there will be a significant price decline in the next six to 12 months," said Sarah Emerson of Boston-based Energy Security Analysis. "At that point the nervousness over tight spare capacity will drop off because OPEC is likely to cut back."

Nigeria and Saudi Arabia have big plans in the works in the next 18 months, but the real expansion should come from 2006 onward, analysts say.

Geoff Pyne, consultant for Sempra Energy, estimates cartel capacity, which stagnated around 30-32 million bpd for the past seven years, will climb to 35 million bpd by 2006.

Saudi Arabia has said it could raise its sustainable capacity by as much as four million bpd if demand warranted it, but says the 800,000 bpd of new oil from Qatif and Abu Safah flowing from October is only meant to offset intentional declines in older fields.

Libyan production is likely to get a fillip from the post-sanctions return of U.S. firms to frozen assets, while the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Nigeria all have projects in the works in several years' time.

Iraq holds the world's second-largest oil reserves and could probably ramp up production relatively quickly, but the massive investment necessary for that still appears years away.

xmortal: Good article. The world needs more oil!

Morning all,

Your right Grevis, seems like lots of people like this share! Good to see institutions buying more, long may it continue. Good article Xmortal, the world does indeed need more oil, and I can only see world demand for oil rising, as will the price in my view. Heres to a good day for PCI!

gavdfc : Morning! Nice steady buying so far.

Good to see steady buying so far, looks good. Yesterday the Saudi oil minister said he believed the oil price was "fair" just now, so dont think OPEC will be increasing supply soon, even if it could. Demand will continue to outstrip supply in the long term, so oil prices will remain high and I think go higher. Makes the oil in the ground that PCI find worth more!

It's looking good for a rise. The MMs have started drawing up the bid.

400000 buy just went through, looking good to me. Hopefully start to move up soon.

Just read an article about Cairn Energy. Company now valued at over 2 billion pounds, much of this based on 500 barrels of oil found in India. If CPI confirms 400 million barrels, what price would CPI be worth I wonder?

Just read that article about the 500m barrels Grevis. People seems to love Cairn right now, value up from 550m to 2bn! Would have loved to have been in that one from the start. Also an article in the Independent saying that ABN Amro taking an optimistic view on Cairn, believe it could be worth excess of 29 a share! If PCI come up with 400mpb surely the sp would rocket.

Looking forward to that day. They reckon their prospecting rights are worth
41p per share, even without drilling a well.

Nice one Grevis, looking forward to the drilling results. Think they are going to drill in September. Don't know when the results will come out but looking forward to them. Interesting debates over on the Oil board at the Fool re PCI and the Oil Barrel conference. Makes some good reading.

Just wonder if we may get another late Friday surge. Buyers have started to nibble again. Buys now 1.9 million. Sells 1.2 million.

gavdfc: Any chance of posting that fool article?

Here's the link for it Grevis. It's quite a long thread but well worth the read. Some decent buys today so hopefully a small tick up before the close. A few of the people posting on that thread were at the Oil Barrel conference this week.

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=8635736&sort=whole#8639244

gavdfc: Thanks for that link. Will try it later.

This item was posted on another BB after last weeks oilbarrel.com conference:

One new piece of news coming out of the conference for me is that Petroceltic will drill the Sidi Toui well at sole risk. I remember when I first looked at PCI that it wasn't clear whether Sidi Toui would be sole risked or drilled via farm-in. Oilbarrel reported on 10/12/03 that "Petroceltic is thinking it might sole risk the project" But in the oilbarrel 02/07/04 article about the conference:

"Craven said the company had received a number of approaches from companies looking to farm-in to its Ksar Hadada licence in southern Tunisia, home to the 400 million barrel Sidi Toui prospect and a number of look-alike structures. Craven told investors, however, that Petroceltic will hold onto its stake for now. The well will drill to 1,400 metres at a cost of US$2 million and we can absorb that on our own, said Craven. We plan to drill it and keep the equity going forward because we believe we will get better value for it later on.


Clearly the decision to sole risk the Sidi Toui well shows confidence. Was this previously known? If so where?

PCI's prospects are excellent, hence why Gartmore and now Fidelity have both upped their stakes over the past couple of weeks. If Sidi Toui fulfils just half its potential we will be quids in. What will also help to fuel the share price is the current crisis affecting several major producers.

Iraq's oil production has again been disrupted and Yukos who account for 20% of Russia's oil exports is on the brink of being declared bankrupt. This has all happened when demand for oil is at an all time high. India and China are both expanding rapidly and have added to the pressure on oil stocks. Terrorists have stepped up their attacks within Saudi Arabia and the USA is becoming convinced that the world is too reliant on Middle East oil supplies. As a result spot prices jumped again on Friday and seem set to go much higher. This may be bad for the world's economy but will focus attention on those companies that have most to gain, i.e. small to medium sized oil producers/ explorers. Which ones will rise the most is anyones guess, so spread your risk into PRE, EEN, CPI or whatever you may fancy. Good luck!