.

Post by Stu over at III.


When the RNS eventually comes we simply need to confirm the depth of the OWC for the main Sea Lion fan.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SIDESHOW. EVERYTHING.

If this well encounters water saturated sands where the Sea Lion main fan should be, as was the case in 14/10-3, then I'm afraid it's the news we are all dreading.
And the SP is going to take the beating off it's life.

==========================================
Watery Nightmare



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However, if the well encounters the Sea Lion fan and it's oil, then great. We're looking for an oil water contact that is below 2,500m. Which confirms oil across the floor of the valley.

===========================================

Oily Bliss



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If 14/10-4 confirms recoverable oil below 2,500m then it's very tempting to look towards the South and the new seismic data for "significant upside potential"

==========================================

Scale of additional seismic region



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I have some cash at hand ahead of results, this cash is usually for averaging down when results are bad in order to try and catch a bounce.

But in this instance, if results are good, I will be looking to add to my position, as the market will be unable to value a positive result in a single session.

Thursdays "Stock on Loan" figures at close now updated again.

Looks like a lot of shorters closed on Thursday, now only a very small amount of shorts left open, circa 250K of stock.

To be honest I am quite sure that his has, imo, been manipulated down to kick a lot of small PI's off of the shareholder register and leave a couple of big funds with increased holdings levels prior to the news that ends all negative speculation, if this well proves Sea Lion main has circa 35m of net pay and also the OWC is low down (or none found) then it can never be questioned again about SL being commercial in the future. How many PI's have been scared into selling out ahead of what could be massive news.

We all know the bear raid in the past that pushed the price down with the false heavy oil rumours - that avenue of manipulation is now blocked.

Has there been a more basic form used where two or three funds have been selling to each other such that they force the price down but also as they buy each others sells and sell into each others buys, they themselves actually keep the same amount of stock with zero cost - the effect of doing this and forcing the price down then allows them to buy up all the sells from people who get out of the stock as its falling, as they are overmargined, as they are scared ? Its an easy way to buy lots of stock cheaply - especially when you know that big funds will only add to their holding after news, and not before. Allows you to really scare the wits out of the small PI's and force them under fear to derisk or sell or move on - and you simply keep on buying their sells.

Its binary now, there is no middle ground, the share price will zoom upwards and rerate on good news, or it will zoom downwards on poor news. People who sold will either be cursing themselves for selling, or thanking their stars they did.

Fingers crossed all is good :)!

Here is the stock on loan chart up to Thursday close.



.

Proselenes

If like you keep saying about not having sold any of your RKH shares and holding them long term, then why don't you stop posting on all the these websites 24/7 and get on with your life, have you nothing better to do all day.

They must know now, if this latest drill is a success.....and there might be a leak before monday....what I can't understand is surely the first test on sealion must be considered to be a major success....then even if the deeper zone is not, they still have what they already discovered or am I not understanding this properly ?.....

aldwickk, its interesting at the moment, quite exciting !

Where is everybody ?.....looks like well success to me ......

Development planning now......two important words....

Well done all, very busy today and no chance to look in until now, but excellent news.

Pretty much bangs the 170MMBO in the bag. They were not targeting Sea Lion lower here that will come with a westerly appraisal but if that comes in good then 300MMBO should be in the bag.

After that the new area covered by the new 3D could add another 300MMBO on top of the previous mentioned 300MMBO, and with it full to spill point I would suggest Sea Lion is looking to be 600MMBO in size after a couple more appraisals and also Fox and Stephens are now very much in play, as is updip S2 fan.

Enjoy, I am really glad I filled my boots in the 200's and this is now a strong buy at anything under 400p.

Enjoy Enjoy :)

sp performing slightly more dully than i would have hope, but on the other hand, XEL having a spiffing day at long last

Anyone not accumulating is a nutter IMO.

14-10/3 confirmed that S2 had oil stains downdip.

14-10/4 has confirmed Sea Lion has filled full to spill point.


All points to the unmapped south being full, Sea Lion Main being full, Sea Lion lower being full, some of Sea Lion North being filled BUT

S2 updip probably full as well as Fox and Stephens..... and who knows, perhaps Jason as well as Chatham.


Absolutely fabulous - buy real stock with real money and hold them for a year or two, I do not think you are going to go wrong with that strategy.

lol
this my mint
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xovXxa6sGU&feature=related
for a few days lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGeX9D7xU_w&feature=related

my going away gift

anyone slatem that is fine

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxORSX86t10&feature=list_related&playnext=1&list=MLGxdCwVVULXctxoMtroX8z1pb-L5mvOXu

my leavimg is rrr, rrls, stc and sres not in that order

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKtHQKQX_bI&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfKu6pGxvFU&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXmrVfB19XY&feature=related

my going away gift

anyone slatem that is fine

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxORSX86t10&feature=list_related&playnext=1&list=MLGxdCwVVULXctxoMtroX8z1pb-L5mvOXu

my leavimg is rrr, rrls, stc and sres not in that order

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKtHQKQX_bI&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfKu6pGxvFU&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXmrVfB19XY&feature=related

my going away gift

anyone slatem that is fine

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxORSX86t10&feature=list_related&playnext=1&list=MLGxdCwVVULXctxoMtroX8z1pb-L5mvOXu

my leavimg is rrr, rrls, stc and sres not in that order

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKtHQKQX_bI&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfKu6pGxvFU&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXmrVfB19XY&feature=related

And do not forget the clever city boys paid 315p to get into this in a 206m pound placing.

Whilst they are now buying more they are telling you not to get excited..... they want you to sell so they can buy more below the placing price.

LOL :)

And do not forget the clever city boys paid 315p to get into this in a 206m pound placing.

Whilst they are now buying more they are telling you not to get excited..... they want you to sell so they can buy more below the placing price.

LOL :)

they liked paying that so much, they did it twice!

I think we will end up, with the southern extension where the new 3D is being shot and with Sea Lion Lower being appraised soon, with 600MMBO to 1BillionBO recoverable from just Sea Lion.

Whilst many think that, everyone is playing "conservative now", and that makes a super buying/accumulation chance.


From FTalphaville today:


Relief for beleaguered RKH shareholders as the latest appraisal well on the Sea Lion discovery is successful. The 14-10/4 well, drilled 2.3 kilometres from the original discovery well, encountered 33 metres of net oil pay and successfully flowed oil in a Drill Stem Test (DST). The group says that flow rates and producibility could be significantly better than the 2,000 b/d that the discovery well tested at. Following the failure of the previous well (14-10/3), the share price had taken a battering as equity markets appeared to give up on the groups Falklands aspirations.

However todays news should go some way to reversing that ill-advised pessimism. RKH says that there will likely be a sighnificant increase in P90 reserves (from the curent level of 57 million barrels). Id expect confirmation of the competent persons estimate of P50 recoverable oil reserves of 170m barrels, indeed RKHs higher case of 242m barrels may well ultimately prove to be more accurate. Based on the lower reserves estimate we reach a NAV of 593p/share, whilst the higher case gets us in excess of 800p.

The rig will now move to the c90m barrel Ninky prospect (Desire 92.5%, RKH 7.5%) before returning to drill three further wells on RKHs acreage. The Rock is back in business get involved.

Critically, the sands at this location appear (1) connected to the upper SeaLion fan and (2) better developed than in the original reservoir with the stem test pointing to significantly better flow potential and no water produced. Management indicate that the result significantly increases the P90 resources of the field we estimate to c.100mmboe (from 60mmboe). Whilst there is no indication on P50-P10 volumes, we believe that they have been materially de-risked albeit remain unchanged. Reflecting the derisking of the P50 (170mmboe) resources, we increase our NAV/PO by 30p to
515p. We re-iterate our Buy rating.

We see this result as key to continue moving SeaLion towards commercial stage,
effectively proving recent market concerns overdone. We believe that the P90
volumes fully underpin a stand alone development using an FPSO. The indication
of increased flow potential in the well is critical to limit the number of development
wells required and, hence, reduce the potential total cost of the project.

Goldman Sachs update:

RKH reiterated "conviction buy", target price raised to 684 from 640

We regard the result as very positive news. The company has stated that contingent P90 volumes will go up significantly and that as a result, confidence in commerciality will also rise significantly. We concur with this assessment, estimating that 100 mn bls is sufficient to make the development comfortably commercial at US$100/bl assuming an FPSO development a threshold that we believe should be close to the revised P90 volumes following this result. To reflect this increased confidence in the commerciality of Sea Lion, we increase our assumed chances of success on the field from 60% to 70%; as a result, our 12-month target price rises to 684p (from 640p). We believe the stock is trading at almost a 30% discount to the risked value of Sea Lion (assuming a P50 volume of 205 mn bls) and cash net of appraisal costs alone, and believe there is compelling additional potential from: (1) a potential extension of Sea Lion to the south from new seismic coverage; (2) a further de-risking of Sea Lion; and (3) additional exploration drilling in Rockhoppers substantial acreage around the Sea Lion discovery.

Valuation

Our SOTP-based 12-month price target is calculated using US$100/bl oil. We assume a 12% discount rate, higher than the 10% we normally use for OECD countries to reflect the higher political risk we assume in the Falklands.

Key risks

Failure in the future appraisal is the key risk, although we believe that todays result has removed some of this downside risk.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=105284&hmpn=1

Rockhopper Roars at Falklands Oil Find

by SubseaIQ|Rockhopper Exploration plc|Monday, March 21, 2011


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