From the latest company's drilling update....17 Feb

http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200402170700084897V.html

Can anyone with mining knowledge explain these terms....

What does sidetracking mean? Approx how ong will that take?
Approx. how long will it take to correct a deviated section?
Is 'crude oil in shale samples' a good indication that there is oil?
Is 'Gas-bearing porous sands being logged' a good indication that there is gas?
Basically what does logging involve ?

Any views re AEX potential??

Regards
Stephen

When will the oil run out?

Experts argue: Now or 30 years away

By GEORGE JAHN
Associated Press Writer

VIENNA, Austria | Fact: World oil production will peak someday, and supplies will start running out. But when will the tipping point come -- in years, decades, or a couple of months from now?

The oil industry says crude will be plentiful for at least another generation. But some experts argue reserves are overstated, oil technologies are limited and demand, sharply boosted by the needs of China and India, could soon outpace supply.

European Union finance ministers are asking the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to ramp up production when the Saudi-led cartel meets Sept. 19 in Vienna -- despite the failure of similar boosts over the past year and a half.

Skeptics say that won't work.

"World oil production is going to peak on American Thanksgiving, with a three-week period of uncertainty on each side," declares Princeton professor, geologist and oil maverick Kenneth S. Deffeyes. He uses a formula first developed to pinpoint with near accuracy 1971 as the start of oil production decline in the United States.

Once supply begins to dwindle, the years to follow will see shortages that at best will cause "global recession, possibly worse than the 1930s Great Depression," says Deffeyes. At worst, he warns of "war, famine, pestilence and death."

Deffeyes' prediction is clearly controversial. Still, it is gaining an audience, and dozens of energy experts and academics say his arguments have merit.

With supply already barely matching demand and prices high and rising, the U.S. oil giant Chevron has begun running ads declaring that "the era of easy oil is over." And normally skeptical organizations are expressing worry.

"The world has never faced a problem like this," says a report prepared this year for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Technology Laboratory. Although oil companies have searched intensively for new oil finds, "results have been disappointing," says the report, from Science Applications International, which focuses on security and energy concerns.

More worrisome are claims of inflated reporting by the Saudis, Iran and most other OPEC members whose national oil companies are not legally subject to audits and other controls. Even firms like Shell and Chevron are thought to base their proven reserve figures in the Middle East in part on unchecked numbers provided by OPEC-member state companies.

OPEC nations deny padding their figures but even governments are becoming openly skeptical.

British Treasury chief Gordon Brown on Tuesday urged OPEC members to "become more open and transparent" on how much oil they really have and how they plan to develop it.

Energy expert Matthew Simmons says that except for Libya, Algeria and Nigeria, OPEC countries tripled their reserve numbers in the 1980s with no supporting data.

Simmons, who advised George W. Bush's 2000 presidential campaign, says most OPEC nations were involved in a "proven-reserves arms race" -- overstating recoverable stocks because the organization assigned production quotas according to each country's reserves.

In reality, Saudi reserves are probably closer to what they said they had 25 years ago and the same goes for most other OPEC nations, said Simmons. Middle East proven reserves are very likely only a third of the approximately 700 billion barrels being claimed, he said.

Simmons, whose Houston-based Simmons & Company investment firm guides companies in energy-related acquisitions, is also dismissive of claims that improved technology will increase oil recovery from reserves. He points to the story of North Sea oil, whose production peaked six years ago, despite all-out industry attempts to tap unexploitable reserves through new means.

So when is oil going to peak?

Simmons won't go as far as Deffeyes and his Thanksgiving projection. Still, he points to the world's present huge appetite for crude in saying the decline may begin sooner than some think, but will stretch over decades before the last barrel is used up.

"The difference between peak oil happening and (oil) running out completely is the difference between me saying 'I'm getting slightly hungry' and 'I'm starving to death,"' he said.

Nice purchase of 2m at 18.5 just gone through

Give these another 7 days, and the S.P will be a lot higher, then get ready for Tanzania and DPRK plans ....

Cheers,
PM

A reminder for those who don't know why Aminex is rising on the DPRK nuclear treaty ....


09.08.2005
Aminex Signs Up To Explore Most Of North Koreas Oil And Gas Territories In Groundbreaking Production Sharing Agreement
Aminex plc has scored a real first with the signing of a formal production sharing agreement for a large tranche of exploration acreage in the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea. Shares in the company climbed 1.625p to 9.5p on the news.

The signing of an exploration agreement with the secretive North Korean regime - a member of US President George W Bushs infamous axis of evil - marks a real coup for the London-headquartered oil junior. In September 2004 the company signed a twenty-year petroleum agreement with the DPRK, which is anxious to develop its indigenous oil industry. The impoverished country, which is run along a strict communist ideology based on the concept of juche or self reliance, has seen its economy run into real problems, resulting in famine and prolonged power blackouts. It depends on coal and hydropower and imports what oil it uses, around 86,000 barrels per day.

Under the terms of the 2004 deal, Aminex agreed to provide technical and legal expertise to help the DPRK authorities get to grips with their domestic resource base and attract inward investment. In return the British oil company receives a royalty on any new production, a carried interest in any new wells drilled by incoming companies and the right to explore anywhere in the country. Aminex later cemented its relationship with the DPRK by agreeing to take a stake in Kobril, an international natural resource vehicle controlled by the pariah regime.

Since then Aminex has worked hard to get to grips with the existing seismic and well data covering the country and has helped draft a model production sharing agreement. The PSA, made under Swiss law, runs for nine years, divided into three three-year periods, with the work commitments in the first phase including seismic acquisition and the drilling of one exploration well.

At 66,000 sq km, Aminexs PSA covers the greater part of the countrys on and offshore oil and gas prospective territories, including the West Sea offshore basin, a part of the East Sea offshore basin, the onshore Anju basin, the onshore Jaeryong basin and the onshore Pyongyang basin.

This can rightly be considered frontier territory. There has been sporadic exploration in the country over the past 30 years, resulting in some undeveloped discoveries. The West Sea acreage is thought to offer the best near-term production potential. Speaking to oilbarrel.com recently, Aminexs chief executive Brian Hall described the area as an offshoot of the Bohai Bay in China, that countrys largest indigenous source of oil and gas and the scene of recent major discoveries.

The East Sea acreage could also prove very interesting. Its geology is not dissimilar from that of Sakhalin Island, said Hall, referring to the oil and gas rich Russian territory that has attracted multi-billion dollar investments from the worlds supermajors.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.rmfdevelopment.com/political/NorthKoreaOil.htm

North Korea has significant, but quite unmeasured reserves of offshore
oil. Many countries have lined up to help them extract it but little
oil drilling has yet to be done. The official DOE summary of North
Korean oil is probably out of date. The kimsoft.com estimate talks
about 10 billion tons. A ton contains 7.33 barrels of oil so 7.33 * 10
billion = 73 billion barrels. For a country about the size of
Pennsylvania, this counts as a lot.

Hi All,

According to the stats, the breakout will occur when the price moves above 18.38p(the highest close in the last 52 weeks) and that will trigger an alert on advfn and sevral other data providers to that effect .... this should happen tomorrow, then watch it go through 20p ....

Cheers,
PM

Hi All,

Remember this ?

I posted it a couple of weeks ago ....





With the close at 17.5p, we are almost at the one year breakout, that should occur next week. 27p is the 3 year breakout target.

Also the 50 M.A is shown heading towards the rising 200 M.A ready to hopefully form a 'Golden Cross', one of the most bullish signals ever, signifying a long bull run, AFTER the cross.

MM's are pushing up the price, and each time you see them buy, it is followed by a .25p rise. We also have others accumulating AEX, as shown by todays buys.

This all leads me to think 20p to 27p is on the cards within 2-3 weeks.

As you can see, the Golden Cross has happened, indicating a major bull run in the stock ....

Hi Paul,
Long time no chat.
I'm still in there with my purchases at 9p, 11.49p and (get this), having sold a few at 15.5p to lock in some profits about 10 days ago, actually bought them all back last Wednesday at 16.25p !!!!
Of course you may remember I still hold some from 1987 that I bought at the equivalent of 660p !!!
It's all averaged down nicely as some wag commented on TMF !!
Keep up the good work with the research and news.

Mono

Mono Hi,

Your 660p might come back to haunt you next year .... LOL !

Cheers,
PM

British Bulls analysis

Aminex PLC
Daily Commentary


Our system posted a BUY-IF today. The previous SELL recommendation that was confirmed was made on 06.09.2005 (13) days ago, when the stock price was 17.0000. Since then AEX has gained 7.35% .

Is this finally a good time to buy? Well, it depends. First check what happened at after hours trading and future values. Then, follow the next session very carefully and be on your toes. This candlestick pattern is a bullish one, but we have to see whether it will be confirmed or not.

Do you see a gap-up at the market open? Do you see a white candlestick forming with a higher close at the session's end? Shortly, is it a nice bullish day? If so, place your buy orders and open new long positions. The market is now on the bull side.

But, be careful, also. If you see a gap-down when the market opens, or if the session closes with a bearish sentiment producing a black candlestick characterized by a lower close, do not challenge the market. Ignore the BUY-IF alert. Cancel the buy orders and cover any new long positions that you might have opened. Bears are still in control.

Today a White Opening Marubozu was formed. This shows that the day opened and then the prices continued to go up all day long without coming below the opening level thus forming a long white body, however prices did not close at the high of the day and thus they created an upper shadow.

The last two candlesticks formed a Bullish Engulfing Pattern . This is a bullish reversal pattern that marks a potential change in trend. However, its reliability is not very high and it requires confirmation.

Typical! Thought it was a bit too easy..... This is gonna take longer than I think some expect.


N Korea refuses to disarm until reactors built
By Anna Fifield in Seoul
Published: September 20 2005 06:47 | Last updated: September 20 2005 08:20

North Korea on Tuesday said it would not abandon its nuclear weapons programmes until it received light water power reactors from the US, less than a day after signing up to a watershed agreement aimed at resolving the nuclear crisis on the Korea peninsula.


In an abrupt U-turn that confirmed many fears about entering into any deal with Kim Jong-ils regime, Pyongyang insisted that an alternative power source had to be provided before it took any steps towards denuclearisation, apparently putting the negotiations back where they started two years ago.

The North Korea foreign ministry said it would return to the non-proliferation treaty and sign the safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency immediately upon the US provision of light water reactors, which was a basis of confidence-building to us.

The US should not even dream of the issue of [North Koreas] dismantlement of its nuclear deterrent before providing LWRs, it said in the statement published by the official Korean Central News Agency.

The US rejected the Norths latest demand. This is not the agreement that they signed and well give them some time to reflect on the agreement they signed, said Sean McCormack, a US state department spokesman.

China said on Tuesday it believed all parties would live up to their commitments agreed at the talks.

I dont think the North Korean side misunderstood or misinterpreted the joint statement, Chinas foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang said at a news conference, according to Reuters.

(We) believe all parties will seriously fulfil their promises with a responsible attitude, he added.

In Tokyo, Japanese foreign minister Nobutaka Machimura said the demand was unacceptable, according to the Kyodo News agency.

Tuesdays statement poured cold water on the cautious jubilation that followed the agreement, which came after 20 days of negotiations in the fourth round of the six-party talks and confounded expectations the discussions would collapse.

All six parties - China, Japan, Russia, the US and the two Koreas - agreed to a deal under which North Korea would receive energy aid and security guarantees in return for abandoning its weapons programmes and allowing United Nations inspectors back into the country.

The agreement reflected North Koreas insistence that it had the right to peaceful use of nuclear energy, with the other parties agreeing to discuss at an appropriate time the subject of the provision of light-water reactor to North Korea.

Pyongyang had previously insisted on up-front rewards, while Washington said it would not grant any concessions until dismantlement was underway. But both signed up to an agreement promoting a commitment for commitment, action for action implementation.

Tuesdays defiant statement from Pyongyang suggests its fundamental position has not changed, despite its accession to the agreement.

The international community was heartened by the breakthrough on Monday in the seemingly intractable stand-off, hoping the progress would put pressure on Iran, the other member of President George W. Bushs axis of evil which is also pursuing nuclear programmes.

Mr Bush on Monday welcomed the agreement but expressed reservations over whether all parties would keep to their commitments.

The deal was a step forward in making this world a more secure place but insisted weve got to verify whether or not that happens, he said.

Christopher Hill, the USs chief negotiator, said the effectiveness of the agreement, and the exact details of how North Korea would abandon its nuclear programmes, would become clear over the next few weeks.

But analysts said there likely to be many difficulties in implementing the pact, particularly as few of the fundamental differences between Pyongyang and Washington appeared to have been bridged.

North Korea withdrew from the NPT and ordered out IAEA inspectors in 2002 after the US accused it of developing nuclear weapons, breaching the 1994 deal forged with the Clinton administration. A fifth round of talks to iron out the details including the provision of oil, energy aid and security guarantees to North Korea is set to be held in Beijing in early November.

Not great news.

That Kim really is a fruitcake!

Stringy Hi,

Don't worry, the Chinese will sort it out .... again :)

Cheers,
PM

As long as the Chinese and maybe Russia are happy to do business with DPRK then I guess there's not too much to worry about there.

Kim is so unpredictable though and at the end of the day, when it comes to the DPRK he IS the law and can do exactly as he wishes on a whim.

I understand that Hill said something to the effect that he expected this subsequent repsonse from North Korea - more a domestic face-saving exercise. This would explain the little price movement yesterday. Whether this really changes anything fundamentally, I'm not sure.

Rita..........oil price............AEX?

-Paul?

It didnt have an impact with Katrina from memory Stringy, I thought the same but the sp didnt seem to budge.

Figures i suppose.

A temporarily higher oil price is good for AEX's current income but does little for it's future prospects which is the main factor driving the sp at the mo.

Stringy Hi,

Dunno, Aminex are producing in Texas, and Rita is heading for .... Texas ....

If your hoping for a rise due to oil shortages, it might backfire :(

Cheers,
PM

============================================

USA

Aminex is currently working on the development of proven and behind-pipe gas reserves in Texas on its Alta Loma and South Weslaco leases.

At Alta Loma, the existing Sunny-Ernst-1 well has been re-completed in another formation and a further development well is planned.

On South Weslaco, a four well drilling programme is in progress.

Aminex will be replacing high cost production lost through the Vinton Dome disposal with new low cost gas production which can be put on stream very rapidly after well re-entry/new drilling.

===============================================


Rita a substantial threat to Gulf oil-EIA
Wed Sep 21, 2005 4:35 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hurricane Rita could have a "substantial impact" on U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, a situation that the nation's already tight gasoline market cannot afford, the head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Hurricane Rita was packing 150 mph winds as it churned through the Gulf of Mexico, with computer models forecasting landfall south of Houston on Saturday.

"There's a risk that we could have a substantial impact on further refineries," EIA Administrator Guy Caruso told a Senate Commerce Committee hearing on gasoline prices. "We clearly cannot afford any further disruptions in gasoline production and capacity."

Caruso's remarks echoed worries expressed by oil market traders.

Four large refineries in the Gulf Coast region, which together account for about 5 percent of U.S. capacity, remain out of service from Hurricane Katrina last month.

Soon after Katrina hit Louisiana and Mississippi on August 29, the nationwide average retail gasoline price jumped to $3.07 per gallon, nearly tying the inflation-adjusted high of $3.12 set in 1981.

Earlier on Wednesday, the EIA said Rita could threaten up to 18 Texas oil refineries that have a combined capacity of 4 million barrels per day, or nearly one-fourth of the nation's total refining capacity.

"While not all of this capacity would be affected under any scenario, it does point out how much refining capacity is at risk," the EIA said in a weekly oil market report.

Texas has 26 refineries, with 18 located near the Gulf of Mexico coastline, it said.

Marathon Oil (MRO.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Valero Energy Corp. (VLO.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and BP Plc (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) were among refiners that shut down or reduced operating rates at Texas refineries to prepare for Rita.

Thousands of workers were also evacuated from offshore drilling rigs and production platforms as a safety precaution.

"People were worried post-Katrina, as we have real tight product supply," said Jamal Qureshi, analyst at PFC Energy. "Now we have a hurricane heading for the bigger part of the coastal refinery center, threatening to blow a huge hole in products supply."

Valero, the nation's biggest refiner, said Rita's impact could be a "national disaster" and unleash retail gasoline prices above $3 a gallon.

Wholesale gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $2.0531 a gallon on Wednesday, up 7.65 cents. The futures price hit a record $2.92 a gallon soon after Katrina hit.

Oh dear .... Alta Loma is on the coast right next to Texas City .... near Houston ....

South Weslaco is to the left and up a bit on this picture, so I guess they will have shut down and abandoned ship, hopefully no damage will be done, other than lost production for a week or two ....

Cheers,
PM