I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Credit Suisse note:
"Upgrading to Outperform: With Man groups shares down 25% year-to date and consensus expectations increasingly incorporating the higher cost run-rate we believe the downside to our forecasts is relatively limited now. Clearly the last month has seen weak returns across the hedge fund industry but we believe the improving relative performance at AHL and signs of improved fund raising for Man group should underpin a return to growth for the group. We have trimmed our EPS forecasts by 6% for this year and 4% for y/e Dec 2012E largely reflecting lower performance fees assumptions. That said we have raised our sum of the parts based target price to 2.85 (from 2.70) to reflect slightly higher target multiples given the increased diversification of performance fees.
Improving fundamentals: Man groups flagship fund AHL which contributes 50%+ of revenues has been relatively flat over the last month and outperformed other hedge funds and equity markets. AHL is -4% YTD and +9% over the last 12 months broadly in line with the hedge fund industry.
Despite choppy markets hedge funds continued to see strong inflows through April and May. We expect June to be more challenging but further inflows into a recent Nomura AHL launch in Japan is evidence of continuing demand. Moreover we believe that uncertain markets make AHL attractive for investors given the liquidity, long-term track record and the more limited reliance on rising asset values than other hedge funds. Our conversations with leading managed futures funds and distributors in Asia suggests no slowdown in the demand for managed futures in recent weeks."

Harry - there was a mention in Greystone's market overview about bid speculation.

Yes, I saw that, though the guys on FT Alphaville pretty much knocked that idea on the head.

StockMarketWire.com
Hedge fund manager Man Group said today it saw net inflows of $3.7bn in the first quarter to end-June, reflecting record sales of $9bn and redemptions at $5.3bn.

Man said its recently launched open ended onshore AHL fund in Japan now has $2.3m under management.

Revenue synergies from the GLG acquisition include $1bn from an emerging markets currency product in Japan and $400m from the first guaranteed product blend - Man IP 220 GLG.

Challenging market conditions led to $1.1bn of negative investment movement in the quarter to end-June.

AHL was down 0.6% in the period, and 12% from its peak on a weighted average basis.

Within GLG's diverse product range, European long short and European distressed styles had positive performance in the period and global macro and other long short strategies were negative.

Other movements of $1.8bn were driven by routine rebalancing of investment exposure in the guaranteed products after negative AHL performance in the rebalancing period; FX movements added $0.8bn; acquisition of the remaining 50% of Ore Hill added $0.3bn.

THe fiancial position remains strong, with a regulatory capital surplus of around $900m, net cash of around $900m and total available liquidity resources of around $4.8bn.

Peter Clarke, CEO, said: "We are pleased to be reporting strong net inflows from investors over the last quarter. Following the successful integration of GLG at the end of 2010, we are seeing revenue synergies building, with investor flows into AHL, GLG strategies, and combination products.

"Current markets are creating challenging performance conditions for most asset classes, and our assumption is that investor sentiment will remain patchy over the summer months. The combination of our broad range of liquid investment styles, ability to craft portfolio solutions for investors, and the wide geography of our franchise, is a key advantage in these markets."

Man saw net inflows of $3.7 billion in the first quarter, reflecting record sales of $9.0 billion and redemptions consistent with historical levels, at $5.3 billion. There was a net inflow into alternative funds of $4.1 billion and an outflow of $0.4 billion from long only styles.

Guaranteed products saw their highest sales for two years, at $0.5 billion, driven by the launch of Man IP 220 GLG, the first guaranteed product to combine AHL and GLG styles. Guaranteed redemptions held steady at $0.6 billion.

Sales of open-ended alternatives were a record $6.2 billion and redemptions were $2.0 billion. Within this category, AHL sales of $2.9 billion reflect the recent launch of the first onshore open-ended managed futures product in Japan, which now has $2.3 billion under management. GLG sales accelerated to $3.3 billion with strong flows into equity long/short and emerging markets styles, largely in Europe. The $1 billion raised from an emerging markets currency product in Japan - a territory where GLG had very few investors before its integration into Man - provides tangible evidence of the benefits of combining GLG content with Man's strong distribution network.

Net flows into institutional fund of funds were flat, with sales of $0.8 billion driven by demand for commodity and convertible style funds, as well as a small amount of funding to previously announced managed account mandates. $2 billion is still to fund from previously announced mandate wins at Universities Superannuation Fund and Bayerische Versorgungskammer. Quarterly institutional redemptions on 1 July 2011 are around $470 million.

Long only styles saw sales of $1.5 billion and redemptions of $1.9 billion. The majority of this flow reflects the migration of Japan Core Alpha FUM from a legacy low margin mandate to other higher margin vehicles.

Investment performance had a $1.1 billion negative effect on FUM in the first quarter.

AHL Diversified was down 0.6% in the three months to 30 June 2011, leaving AHL approximately 12% below peak on a weighted average basis. AHL has remained defensively positioned in bonds, but has significantly reduced its short exposure to equities. In FX, its prevalent exposure has been to be long a basket of currencies against the US dollar. Over the period, AHL has seen flows-driven asset growth of 5%.

Performance for GLG's range of alternative investment styles was generally negative in the quarter, with the Global Opportunity Fund (which allocates across GLG strategies) down approximately 2%. Returns in the period ranged from positive performance in European long short and European distressed to negatives in global macro and other long short strategies. Performance in long only styles was broadly flat in the quarter.

FX generated a positive contribution of $0.8 billion in the first quarter, mainly due to the strengthening of the Euro, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen against the US dollar.

The routine rebalancing of investment exposure in guaranteed products led to a negative $1.8 billion of other movements, driven by 5.4% of negative performance from AHL in the rebalancing period.

StockMarketWire.com
Man Group said today that it intends to transfer its Lehman exposure from GLG for a total consideration for the transactions of $355m, payable in cash

Man has entered into a series of transactions to acquire, at current net asset value, all the residual exposure to the Lehman estates from funds managed by its wholly owned subsidiary, GLG Partners LP. These transactions are mainly relevant to GLG's European Long Short and North American Opportunity strategies.

The total consideration for the transactions is $355m, payable in cash. In return, Man will be entitled to benefit from, or bear the risk of, any change to the net asset value of the claims, with the funds sharing upside in limited circumstances. Man will be entitled to the proceeds of each claim as and when it is distributed by the relevant Lehman estate, although the precise timing of receipts is difficult to determine given the complexity of the Lehman insolvencies.

The board directors of the relevant funds have received independent financial and legal advice in respect of the transactions.

In its 7th July Interim Management Statement, Man confirmed that it had a regulatory capital surplus of around $900m, net cash of around $900m and total available liquidity resources of around $4.8bn. The regulatory capital impact of the transactions is expected to be around $50m and they are expected to have a negligible impact on Man's net interest expense.

Peter Clarke, CEO, said: "These transactions will remove the remaining uncertainty from funds with residual claims against the Lehman estates, to the benefit of both existing and new investors. In this way, Man can use its resources productively to provide clarity for fund investors and the opportunity to grow assets in the affected funds more quickly."

Numis downgrades Man Group from add to hold, target price cut from 300p to 230p.

Below 200p on the cards soon

Date of Pre-Close Trading Update and Interim Results
Man Group plc confirms that it will release its pre-close trading update for the half year ending 30 September 2011 on Wednesday 28 September at 7am (UK time).

Man's interim results announcement will follow on Thursday 3 November.

Harry has EMG been overlooked sp rising nicely today.

No idea why. A long way to go until I am in profit, so just hunkered down and weathering the storm. Good divi yield though as a consolation.
I always thought that the AHL fund hated market volatility, so a bit surprised that sp is up.

Read somewhere upgraded to O/weight, not sure think it was GS yesterday.

Tea boy pressed Ctrl - Alt - Delete

Harry AHL fund increased by 4.3% during the past week, the boys seem to be getting it right!

I thought the AHL fund was primarily based on algorithms trying to make 0.00001p on millions of trades which could be reasonably accurately calculated by lots of spotty PHD graduates? A bit like actuarys in the insurance world.

sp bounced well today management statement due 28th september

StockMarketWire.com
Hedge fund manager Man Group said statutory profit before tax on continuing operations for the half-year to end-September will be $145m (H1 2011: $180m). Diluted statutory EPS is 5.7 cents per share (H1 2011: 7.6 cents).

Adjusted profit before tax is $185m (H1 2011: $227m).

Net management fees (excluding net finance expense) of $200m (H1 2011: $234m) reflect the inclusion of GLG, reduced associate income following the sale of Man's interest in BlueCrest and previously indicated increases to property costs and depreciation.

Net performance fees were $30m (H1 2011: $17m).

Net finance expense was $45m (H1 2011: $24m), including a one off cost of $19m related to the recent debt buy back; annualised interest expense following the buy back will reduce by c. $20m.

Adjusted diluted EPS was 7.5 cents per share (H1 2011: 10.2 cents per share).

The regulatory capital surplus was $1bn, net cash was $700m and total available liquidity resources were $3.4bn.

Alternatives performance: uncorrelated returns from Man's wide range of investment strategies generated positive investment movement of $0.4bn in hedge fund styles in Q2 (negative $0.8bn for H1).

AHL generated $1.5bn of positive investment movement in Q2 ($0.9bn in H1).

GLG alternatives delivered a mix of positive and negative performance across styles, but were $1.1bn negative for Q2 ($1.4bn for H1).

Institutional fund of fund performance was flat for Q2 ($0.3bn negative for H1).

Long only performance: GLG long only strategies registered a negative market movement of $1.9bn in Q2 ($1.8bn for H1).

Flows: inflows from AHL and institutional fund of funds and outflows from guaranteed products and GLG styles gave a Q2 outflow of $2.6bn (H1 inflow of $1.1bn driven by positive flows from GLG in Q1 and from AHL across both quarters).

After record sales in Q1 of $9bn, Q2 sales reduced to $4.5bn, reflecting an anticipated deterioration in investor sentiment over the summer.

Redemptions increased from $5.3bn in Q1 to $7.1bn in Q2.

Total FUM was $65bn at end-September (30th June 2011: $71bn; 31st March 2011: $69.1bn).

Given business performance for the six months ending 30th September 2011, Man's strong market position and continued capital strength, the Board intends to maintain an interim dividend for the period of 9.5 cents per share, to be paid in December 2011.

The Board expects to propose a final dividend for this three month period of 7.0 cents per share, to give a maintained total dividend, pro-rated for the nine month period, of 16.5 cents per share.

I will wait for 150p.

Nasty candle.

hmm 150's?

think so gibby.