OK so you thought the title of the other thread was out of date BUT unfortunately there is no way to edit thread titles.

So here is a new title

This one has got the charts at the top again & has a link to the old one.
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=5021

Panchandl - Great so what does your crystal ball say this morning. Any views on the long term - I have never done that well with mergers but this could be an exception.

Depends on the drug pipeline of the other firm. I cannot find anything out about it so far.

Interesting that two others in my portfolio are leaping this morning MDW and CEN and SKP holding its own (I cant see its any of them but you never know) I know that I have too many biotech stocks for my health - but this mornng the medicine tastes fine.

A takeover is more likely at this price unless they merge with a small co. I really hope it's not the latter which would dilute this great co. I'd prefer it remains autonomous as one day this technolgy will be worth pounds per share and to sell out at these levels would be awful. Expect another big rise tomorrow, could hit 30p by end of week, maybe more.

What would a takeover price be for OXB?30p seems to be too low.Also,I can't see any really BIG money in on this news.Why not?

The rns refers to a merger - not a take over. Thus, it is the range of pipeline drugs that the other co brings to the deal which is so important. I accept the possibility that the mereger might involve a much larger company (such as Biogen - mooted elsewhere) but this is very unlikely because a take-over would be the more sensible option. The reverse is also true if OXB are dealing with a much smaller company. I have no information about this possible merger but I wonder whether Vernalis, or perhaps Cenes, might be involved.

Top % Gainers
# EPIC Name Price Chg %
1 DBE Dunham-bush Ord 2.5p 2.0 0.875 77.78
2 IGA Ingenta Ord 1p 4.225 0.875 26.12
3 EVS Envesta Ord 1p 2.9 0.55 23.4
4 NMT Nmt Group Ord 4 67.5 11.5 20.54
5 MCR Mercator Ord 1p 9.5 1.375 16.92
6 PMG Pc Medics Grp Ord 0.25p 0.7 0.1 16.67
7 EIC Eicom Ord 0.5p 0.55 0.075 15.79
8 AXO Axon Grp. Ord 1p 173.5 23.5 15.67
9 OXB Oxford Biomed. Ord 1p 22.25 3.0 15.58

I can't see a merger going ahead under 30p equiv, that would severeley undervalue this company. A merger once announced I think would really increase the sp for the other co. concerned as it will have to be a similar sized co. and OXB is so undervalued, it will bring so much to the enlarged co. If a much larger co., then at these prices they may aswell bid for it outright but if that is not happening, the value of the the experts in OXB is obviously too much to lose and therefore a merger is the only option. OXB should not merge but remain independent and enter license agreements/affiliations instead.

robstuff - not quite sure I understand your logic but agree that a takeover would be more likely but I also think it would be extremely beneficial to merge with another with similar expertise/complimentary products - a sharing of brains and economies of scale and more power in contracting deals. Also think we'll see 30p over the next week, as it's been recognised how undervalued this co is and the articles in the press should highlight that.

By market cap.Vernalis is a much smaller co.than OXB.However,it has Frovatripran to sell...bringing in some cash,as well .Don't you think that Biogen has some influence in this scenario,as it is the third largest bio-tech.co. i n the world,and would be interested in encouraging a merger between OXB and VER. with a base in Oxford which is internationally respected as a centre of medical research.As both Ver and Oxb are researching Parkinsons there would be immediate advantages to their closer co-operation in this field,which has great possibilities for alleviating the suffering of millions of people,worldwide.My question is,how high can we expect the price to rise and how long do we have to wait for the next rns?They were pretty sharpish,this am.

I'm not sure about this "merger" business - I thought OXB had sufficient cash (and good City connections if they need more) - - -and it looks like they have several products doing quite nicely, although none is ready for Market just yet.
That said, is OXB looking for a partner? - well yes they could be, but I suspect it would be someone already in the frame, OR someone that is already in their target market and who would have the right connections to exploit the technology. That might mean a US-Pharma that can see the potential and wants to move "now" before the value rises (as products get closer to Market).
Or it could be a UK pharma = that knows OXB, likes what they see and needs a slice of the action to bolster their own "miserable" pipeline.
((we hear that major pharmas haven't got anything new for some years)) - So maybe a "First-Late-mover"

So the very word "merger" looks like it is on OXB's Terms - it's not a buy-out as the larger co wants the team to remain in place (presumably), so we'll just have to wait for more news.... I bought some to help move the price, but it was too little and probably too late.....I read (here) that someone believes 30p is right - but frankly any price could be quoted. - As a long-term investor I'd like to see some profit "down the line" - call it a reward for patience - it's bad enough being shafted by firms that go "belly-up" like Mayflower, Marconi, NMT (in the news again Oh yes that will be nice, NMT were 28 not that long ago when you factor-in the CON-solidation, do I make a point? ) - - - but it would be more than disapointing if we were shafted by an OXB deal that enhances Management(of OXB) whilst discards shareholders that have stayed the course. I suppose that, of all my holdings this is really the last one that should still come good; yet......... I see a Fogging, then it was gone?
Regards.

Sorry, I should have entered a plea - if anyone is in contact with the Company

Can OXB make any deal palitable for PEP and ISA holders? So often we have a forced sale on our hands and the Market-makers then drop the price knowing XXX shares will be sold as they no-longer meet the Taxmans Rules (etc).....PEP and ISA holdings really are long-term committments, so it's only right that fully-listed Companies bear in mind their elevated status and the need to consider all Classes of Holders.

I'll step off the soapbox now.

Is 40p a reasonable target?

some good points hangon and I agree, it will be on OXB terms and I still think there may be a fight for the co, maybe a takeover bid as so often is the case when it comes to competitor's attention. There may have been several cos eyeing up OXB waiting for the right time, now that their technology is close to being commercial the value could soar!

Biogen has collaborative agreements with Oxb and Ver;so,they are familiar with each other and it would enable Biogen to have a stronger presence in the U.K. if it was financially involved in the new company.Have put a stop in at 21p as I can't watch this tomorrow.Could be very volatile.
Hangon you have all my sympathies.So often,the shareholders are considered to be interfering nuisances.The small shareholder is risking HIS/HER OWN MONEY....unlike the pension fund managers.

Hangon, I feel we could compare "Dogs" and do agree management buyouts and some take overs and mergers are not very rewarding sometimes. I have looked at my investing techniques for the last 10years wondering if I would make the same mistakes again. I hope not. But at the time of buying those "dogs", I knew the risks involve, inherent in all small company shares, which were bought for their higher returns. Some of those buys have been good, (RTD, PDX,CASH, TFC as egs) which more than made up for the losses. It would be nice if the government allowed the same breadth of securities to be bought in a PEP or ISA as a SIPP. The rules were brought in as a protection for the punter, but could be changed with warnings to the punters.)

But reviewing my strategies changing the type of company I buy will buy in future will reduce the number of buys of non-profit making companies, with good ideas and high R&D not paid for out of earnings. This applies to the likes of OXB.

I think any price above 35p but anything above 30 p will be a bonus

results due at the end of march, will a merger/takeover happen before that????

Oxford Biomedica PLC
20 January 2005



NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION, OR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO THE UNITED
STATES OF AMERICA, CANADA, AUSTRALIA OR JAPAN

Oxford BioMedica plc
20 January 2005

Rule 2.10 Announcement - Relevant Securities in Issue

In accordance with Rule 2.10 of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers,
Oxford BioMedica plc confirms that, as at close of business on
19 January 2005, it had in issue 372,094,163 ordinary shares of 1p pence each
('Oxford BioMedica Shares').

The International Securities Identification Number for the Oxford BioMedica
Shares is GB0006648157.

Enquiries:

Andrew Wood, Chief Financial Officer
Telephone: 01865 783000


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

Mystery suitor in approach for Oxford BioMedica
By Richard Irving

SHARES in Oxford BioMedica jumped by nearly a fifth yesterday after the company announced that it had received a bid approach from a mystery buyer.
In a short statement to the Stock Exchange, the group said that it had receieved an approach from an unnamed third party. The company added that the talks related to a potential merger but emphasised that negotiations were at an early stage and may not subsequently lead to an offer.

Oxford BioMedica shares closed 18 per cent higher at 22p, valuing the group at about 84 million.

It was not immediately clear last night who the mystery buyer might be. Analysts pointed to the confusing wording of the statement, which refers both to a potential merger and to an offer for the company. While a merger might suggest an alliance of equals, and possibly only a modest exit premium, an acquisition might hint at a larger pharmaceutical giant looking to bolster a tired portfolio with cutting-edge medicines.

The company, which was spun out of Oxford University in 1995 by Alan Kingsman and his wife, Susan, operates in the front line of medical science, using modified genes to fight a range of illnesses from Parkinsons disease to HIV.

Its most promising product, TroVax, encourages the bodys immune system to attack cancer cells.

The company, which lost 7.3 million in the six months to June 30 last year, is already in talks to bring in a larger partner to help to fund further trials of TroVax. The drug has the potential to generate sales well in excess of $1 billion (540 million) a year. But in order to secure approval from regulators, the treatment, which will be marketed as a vaccine, must undergo expensive trials among a large number of patients to establish its effectiveness and safety.

Analysts believe that it will take at least another three years before the company will be in a position to launch TroVax. Andrew Wood, chief financial officer, said last year that the company had about 26 million cash enough to finance patient tests until 2007.

The company is also keen to push ahead with expensive trials on two other treatments: a gene therapy to repair brain cells destroyed by Parkinsons disease and another to treat retinopathy, a form of blindness.

The company could be a match for a number of biotech businesses including Onyvax, a private company, which is understood to be keen to list this year; Transgene, of France; and Medigene, of Germany.

Similarly, the TroVax vaccine could be attractive to a larger drugmaker looking to bolster its cancer portfolio.

Oxford BioMedica declined to comment.

Husband and wife team set to make millions

PROFESSORS Alan and Susan Kingsman, the husband and wife team who have searched for a cancer cure for more than 20 years, could become multimillionaires if a deal materialises for Oxford BioMedica.

The couple, both in their early 50s, own 17.3 million shares, which at yesterdays close were valued at 3.9 million, and 330,000 share options, exercisable from October 2006 at 19p.

The pair enjoy a close relationship with Oxford University, whose Masters and Scholars fund has about nine million shares in the business. Alan, a former fellow of St Catherines College, retains the title of Professor of Biochemistry. Susan, a former fellow of Trinity College, holds the title of Professor of Molecular Genetics.

The couple have brought in millions of pounds of external funding from a number of pharmaceutical giants, including GlaxoSmithKline.

The couple describe their experiences at the helm of an AIM-listed company as a rollercoaster exciting, intellectually stimulating, challenging and heartbreaking.

A company bought a 3% stake just before this merger/bid announcement. I cannot think that a merger is likely - far more likely a Takeover - the Kingsman's have worked hard and will want to retire multi-millionnaires - a bird in the hand! Other Bios/Pharmaceutical Cos are going to be interested and I'd be very surprised if another bid doesn't come in. The Kingsman's have opened the way for such bids and there could be a bidding war sharply improving the current sp level, which is still ridiculously low. I don't know about others but I would expect at least 45p