http://www.uploadlibrary.com/foxdavies/GKPBUY200312.pdf
Gulf Keystone (GKP LN)
BUY Current Price: £2.53
Target Price: £3.20
Market Cap (M): £2248 Shares in Issue (M): 855
Value enhancement belied by the fall in share price
The shares have had a roller-coaster ride over the last few months, as the froth associated with bid speculation has driven the price. The recent operational update has provided further support for the prospectivity of GKP’s assets. Following review, we believe that the successes on Shaikan continue to derisk and enlarge the asset, and as such we raise our target price to 320p and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
• Shaikan Keeps Improving: With each successive test of the Shaikan structure, reserves have continued to improve. Shaikan – 4’s flow test results indicate that flow rates from individual horizons are in excess of initial expectations, and that comingled flow rates will exceed 14m bopd. With the latest flow test being focused on a previously untested reservoir horizon (in the Sargelu formation) and appraisal wells Shaikan – 5 & 6 and exploration well Shaikan – 7 aiming to test the deepest prospective undrilled horizons of the Shaikan structure all currently in progress, the scope for further upgrades is significant.
• A Successful Appraisal of the Akri-Bijeel Block Adds 8p to Valuations: Following the completion of the Bekhme-1 exploration well testing programme in December 2011, the Company has received results of an independent evaluation of estimated petroleum resources for the Aqra/Bekhme anticline on the block. While recognizing the fact that no hydrocarbons had flowed to the surface, the report has indicated that there could be up to 5.4bn bbl of oil-in-place. Bekhme adds 8p to our current valuation, so a failure would have very little impact, while a success based on 5.4bn bbl would have significant impact, potentially in excess of 150p.
• Ber Bahr Exploration Another Potential Catalyst: Ber Bahr – 1 exploration well is the next in line to provide an opportunity for a game changer given that GKP has a 40% interest in the block and is targeting resources of 1.5bn bbl; the recent lightning strike, while frustrating, is not sufficient cause for alarm.
• Export Route Underway: The Company has continued the migration of its Kurdistan discovery towards completion with the initiation of the tender process for the construction materials; this follows the earlier initiation of the construction and installation tender process. GKP is currently receiving bids with the technical and commercial evaluation to follow.
• Bid Speculation will Continue to Surround the Company: Save for the history of the country and the more recent sabre rattling from Baghdad, Kurdistan would have been developed before GKP, but as such the Company, along with a handful of other players, have been able to secure first mover advantage in the region. Consequently, once the issues between the Kurdistan Regional Government and Baghdad are resolved, we believe that the independent operators, such as GKP, will come in to play.
• The Longer GKP has Before a Bid, the Better: Given the issues in the region, it is unsurprising that this is not likely to be any time soon. However, this is better for the Company’s valuation as the more progress it achieves in the development cycle the more likely the Company is to receive a fuller valuation for its assets, especially if it is able to complete the export pipeline tendering process.
• Target Price Raised to 320p, Maintain BUY Recommendation: The recent test results and the Company’s continued march towards development means that even if no further hydrocarbons are found, GKPs asset value will improve as the effects of discount on valuations is unwound. As a result, we are upgrading our target price to 320p and reiterating our BUY recommendation.