http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

cheers GF.

Imperial.... whats your bull take on that then cyners? or are you short,i havent researched that one.

no .... def long ..... agreed bid at 12.50, but shares languishing at 10.00 .... docs are meant to go out to shareholders 9 December, but completion is now said to be June 2009, which is 3/4 months later than originally anticipated .... no obvious reason or even cause for concern, but unsettling

Hmmm, yes would agree.

Wonder what the legal take is on this deal. Going to have a good look.

Have a good weekend and dont drink as much as i will. Laugh.

Heres a similar one cyners, Lucian M is Evils sidekick and is pretty good...

The Bard of the Boleyn Is Hunting for a Bargain

Hunting PLC at 382p has a market cap of 500 million. The company has two divisions: firstly Gibson Energy, Canadas largest mid stream oil company (mid stream links upstream which is production and downstream which is refining i.e. it is involved in transportation, storage, pipelines etc.) Secondly it has Hunting Energy Services which provides services to major upstream oil companies (well construction: that sort of thing)

The investment case for Hunting is straight forward. In August it announced the sale of Gibson to Riverstone holdings, a large private equity group for 600 million. This would leave it with 400 million net cash (300p per share) and Hunting Energy Services which is forecast to make 43p of earnings in 2009.

Put another way Riverstone is paying Hunting aproximately 450p per share for Gibson and it will still be left with a debt free profitable business. So whats the catch I hear you ask? The catch is that Riverstone may walk away from the deal which was struck with oil at $140 per barrel against todays $52pb. Against this however is the fact that it has paid Hunting 50 million upfront which will not be refunded if the deal fails . Furthermore the company announced on 3rd November Hunting and Riverstone are working together towards completion of the disposal of Gibson Energy in early December 2008

In my opinion three things can happen in early December. One the company announces the completion of the disposal . Two it announces a date for completion of the disposal. Three it announces the deal is off. If one the shareprice rockets: two it goes up a fair bit, three it falls but given that the price is already discounting the deal fails, the fall should be short lived and investors are left with a bombed out Oil services play. Given that there is a good chance the deal goes through, the present price gives punters a chance to invest in a first class debt free oil services group for next to nothing.

Bear raiding prodigy Lucian Miers is the Bard of the Boleyn

Posted by Lucian Miers on Tue Nov 25, 04:52 PM in Comment

I have a funny feeling the Bombay attacks are just the beginning and there will be more in coming months.

Hi, mitzy.

hows this involved other than general sentimrent?.

Think I know were you are coming from though.

Anybody any idea what the buy tip in shares said??????????????????????????

Wow thats a big fall..

not really .... have a look back at the chart and you will see how lively this share is at most times, and from how low it has recently risen

EK has opened a short position.

he may not be wrong, isnofar as bullion has suddenly dropped $35 for no obvious reason, with POG (and others?) not really reacting to same

Surely there's an obvious reason? If we're heading for deflation, then holding an inflation hedge (gold) doesn't really make much sense. Not that anything makes much sense in these markets at the moment!

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Gone back in long.

Hoping the speculators of recent days are now out.

Following is a piece by Ed Jackson over on iii dated 26th Nov - may be of interest.



''The ongoing global financial turmoil means investors should keep gold under review, for portfolio balance. Latest figures from the World Gold Council show that investment demand for gold rose 56% to 382 tonnes for the third quarter of 2008, as investors sought a relatively safe haven from stockmarket turmoil.

In terms of US dollars, gold demand reached a record $32 billion, 45% higher than the previous record set in the second quarter of this year. The Council believes a lot of this is scared retail investors in Europe, fleeing to gold bars and coins. It is interesting to consider how this may spread, especially in Asia and the Middle East.

Yet the price trend of gold is by no means easy to judge, in relation to events. You can usually find a newsletter or website by 'gold-bugs', regular enthusiasts for the yellow metal who predict higher prices. Yet since it achieved a record peak of $1,023 in March, and as the storm broke in financial markets last summer, the gold price fell below $750. This may have been linked to leveraged hedge funds unwinding, since gold is a relatively liquid market, and weaker buying from the electronics industry. It may however point to upside once forced redemptions of assets has taken its course.

You can investigate gold bars and coins if you like however this is an equities column hence I am alert for a share with recovery potential.

Peter Hambro Mining (POG) is interesting on several grounds besides medium-term upside potential in gold.

Its shares are listed on AIM; a market which has taken its own battering, especially in mining shares since sentiment turned down with commodity prices last summer. Yet Peter Hambro is no typical AIM blue sky miner, it has become Russia's second largest gold producer, mainly as a result of the eponymous Mr Peter Hambro's capability at developing sound relations with commercial partners in Far Eastern Russia. At about 300p per share, the group is capitalised at a relatively substantial 240 million.

This is a double-edged sword for stockmarket sentiment, however, as investors overcame wariness of Russia to buy into Peter Hambro, especially with the boom in smaller miners, then took fright as fears crept back that assets might be reclaimed or commercial terms forcibly adjusted. Russia's economic context, geared to volatility in oil prices, has not helped.

It is also respected as a low-cost producer (despite costs inevitably increasing across the mining industry). You can learn more about its operations at peterhambro.com.


Questions raised
More recently, questions have been posed over the company's reserving and ability to fund its production On 11 November, HSBC Global Research asserted its analyst's view that a technical report on the company's projects showed a sharp decline in resources and reserves at the key Pokrovskiy and Pioneer projects in Far Eastern Russia. HSBC estimated the company would fall well short of its stated production goals, and be unable to fund the Malomir development; hence the analyst downgraded his share price target to 2 from 7. This triggered a recent low around 175p.

Peter Hambro responded with a 14 November announcement citing "potential misunderstandings" of the company's reserves and resources in recent market analysis, which were being discussed with the relevant parties.

Seymour Pierce, another broker which is independent of commercial relations, has taken the opposite stance to HSBC arguing that Peter Hambro Mining shares are trading at a significant discount to global peers, in terms of estimated value per ounce of total reserve and resources. The broker has also confirms the company is among the lowest cost producers globally with one of the strongest growth rates of production.

This recommendation, together with BlackRock Investment Management raising its stake above 13%, has helped the shares back above 200p. The fund involved is managed by a member of the Hambro family, however Baring Asset Management has also bought into the weakness to hold 7.4%.

All this helps to explain the four-year rollercoaster, with Peter Hambro shares soaring from 75p to about 16 a year ago, only to slump back to about 175p. Even while writing this piece, the shares jumped well over 50% to 340p. Volatility is likely to be ongoing, offering opportunities.

Peter Hambro himself bought 40,000 shares at 213p on 13 November although this was modest in relation to his holding of 5,283,179 shares or 6.5% of the issued share capital.

Recent operating results were sound despite inevitable disruptions any miner is liable to, and rising costs which are a current feature of the industry.

First-half 2008 results showed good financial progress with underlying operating profit up 41% to $58.1 million on revenue up 57% to $146.4 million. (Note the industry standard reporting in US dollars.) The modest disparity reflects inflationary pressures in the mining industry: higher costs of labour, energy and raw materials. Strengthening of the Russian rouble against the US dollar has also slightly added to reported costs.

Slow progress
The operational review was a sombre read however with slower than expected progress at the new Pioneer operation and a "disappointing" further delay to the start of production at Malomir (with the first half of 2010 now targeted). There were delays in receiving equipment and possible changes to production schedules after exploring "newly discovered enriched areas", albeit quite normal disruptions for mining companies. (In fairness, note that the 5 November third quarter results showed group production up 32% overall, with Pokrovskiy/Pioneer up 20%.)

A 7.5p per share maiden interim dividend has also been paid, underlining the company's cash generation.

The interim statement had an uneasy paragraph regarding "country risk": "The group is monitoring the progress and implementation of new legislation on strategic assets in order to determine what steps will be required to be taken and what effect it may have on the current and/or future operations of the group."

The statement noted that Wardell Armstrong International had reviewed the group's mineral resources and ore reserves in line with 2004 guidelines for the industry standard JORC Code (see jorc.org), as of August 2008. These were estimated at about 107 million tonnes of ore containing about 4.4 million ounces of gold, with an additional 4.5 million ounces of inferred resources.

So shareholders are having to come to terms with classic risks in the mining industry, more easily overlooked during the stockmarket party - such as controversy over reserving, country risk and operational delays. Unfortunately for holders - or usefully for buyers - this has all coincided with a sharp downturn in wider investor sentiment.

The top-down influence of gold prices is probably the most important factor and if we are looking at a medium-term uptrend (as looks likely) there is scope for a strong re-rating of the shares not just on this but a reversal of the negative sentiment on other issues that have come altogether.

You need to appreciate the speculative aspect of mining shares, that the investment rationale may not be so well defined as in other situations. Yet this makes them prone to sentiment swings that appeal to enterprising traders able to stomach the risks.''

EK is shorting POG....!.

Yep I know.

Hes also told me why and I dont buy his argument.

There is a real scandal with Sibir Energy today....knock on effect ? hope not as I'm in Petroneft for the longterm !.

Looks like EK is right sp down 11% today

It's good that EK is shorting POG

Is it time to buy..?