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Centamin Egypt : Worth waiting for... (CEY)     

pthwaite - 20 Sep 2004 10:27

CEY is a gold mining company operating in Egypt. It was ordered by the Egyptian Government to stop drilling pending a legal dispute brought against the company by a government minister.

Since then, the whole Government cabinet was replaced a few months ago and the minister now in charge of Mining is believed to be positive on Western investment in the country. CEY are pushing for this minister to allow them to continue drilling ASAP; investers are waiting....patiently.

As soon as the company gets the go-ahead to continue drilling, the share price will move north; CEY has plenty of gold in this mine and it is (apparantly) the case of "raking" it out rather than drilling for it!

Check them out...worthy of a punt.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=CEY&Si

niceonecyril - 13 Sep 2010 08:52 - 317 of 2354

A temporary blip imo,to be expected in such projects? Still on course for 500kozs though,makes for a chance to top up.
cyril

chessplayer - 13 Sep 2010 08:56 - 318 of 2354

The shares have performed fantastically,especially compared to its' peers,so this coming down to earth a little is only to be expected.

cynic - 13 Sep 2010 09:31 - 319 of 2354

wrong! .... the reason for the fall is not typical consolidation but the result of a quite significant reduction in production forecast

aldwickk - 13 Sep 2010 10:37 - 320 of 2354

Don't forget the plant was second hand .

i have been locking in profit up to 186p and sold 4% at 167p this morning.

HARRYCAT - 13 Sep 2010 12:25 - 321 of 2354

Comment from Collins Stewart:
"2010 Production downgraded 15-20%: Centamin have reduced production guidance for 2010 by 15-20% from 200koz to a new range of 160-170koz, as a result of continued problems in the mill and lower than expected grades. While longer term targets remain intact, including the expectation for the mine to hit the targeted run-rate and $400/oz cash costs in Q4, the downgrade is likely move sentiment against the company, as its ability to manage production is tested.
*Problems in the mill: The downgrade follows continued problems in increasing the throughput in the processing plant. Harder than expected ore has continued to cause excessive wear to the SAG mills liner and lifters. The liner and lifters are planed to be changed from polymetal to steel in October. Recoveries have also been affected by the slower then expected optimisation of the flotation and leach circuits. Additionally, initial grade reconciliations have indicated 10% higher ore tones at a 10% lower grade. While globally this has a fairly neutral impact in terms of contained gold, it does reduce gold production while throughput in constrained. A resource model update and open pit optimisation is currently underway.
*Expansion plans on track: The group states that the reduced production is expected to pull back Q3s performance, increasing the Q3 cash costs, however the company expects Q4 should see production lift to steady state levels previously targeted. Furthermore, the company states its projects remain on schedule and budget to the targeted 500koz production rate in 2012
*Longer term valuation impact less than short term downgrade:
With a premium valuation, Centamin Egypt remains exposed during the ramp up phase as the companys ability to hit production targets has been untested until now. The downgrade is negative, and we expect the share price to weaken today on the news, though the longer term plans remain. We reduce our DCF based valuation accordingly by 3% to $3,290 or 205p per share (from 210p), which given the current share price retains our Buy recommendation. However any further shortfalls risk eroding the markets confidence in the longer term production levels."

chessplayer - 14 Sep 2010 08:14 - 322 of 2354

My point was,the share was up 1/3 in the past 6 months ,not down like many gold stocks. the share deseved a fall irrespective of forecasts.

cynic - 14 Sep 2010 08:31 - 323 of 2354

wrong logic ..... sp went up because there was a string a encouraging RNSs

anyway, technical bounce need from here if 200 dma at +/-145 not to be challenged .....

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=CEY&Si

aldwickk - 14 Sep 2010 10:30 - 324 of 2354

They can still stock pile the gold ore like GFM did with mined Zinc for about 2 months and they might get a higher price for it.

cynic - 14 Sep 2010 10:32 - 325 of 2354

dear oh dear!
i thought it was just me who didn't bother to read things properly, but clearly you don't either ..... do yourself a favour and read latest RNS about production shortfall!!

aldwickk - 14 Sep 2010 10:36 - 326 of 2354

I don't bother with miner [ pun ] details like that

cynic - 14 Sep 2010 10:36 - 327 of 2354

for once you should - lol!

cynic - 14 Sep 2010 11:33 - 328 of 2354

have contemplated and sold out at minimal profit ..... there doesn't seem to be a good reason to keep holding and sp is more likely to slip further in coming weeks/months

midknight - 14 Sep 2010 11:48 - 329 of 2354

May be of interest:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/8000282/Questor-share-tip-Trouble-at-tmill-makes-Centamin-Egypt-a-hold.html

cynic - 14 Sep 2010 12:11 - 330 of 2354

but assuredly not a BUY

kernow - 14 Sep 2010 15:13 - 331 of 2354

contrarian that I am and having sold too early a couple of months ago I'm looking to get back on board. However I'm waiting for a little more pullback first.

required field - 14 Sep 2010 15:14 - 332 of 2354

MML is the one along with CLF.

HARRYCAT - 14 Sep 2010 15:18 - 333 of 2354

150p+ is possible, imo. I would be surprised if it gets lower than that.

(Rf, time to get OUT of MML, not in.)

required field - 14 Sep 2010 15:20 - 334 of 2354

Why...gold is soaring....running my profit there....

required field - 14 Sep 2010 15:23 - 335 of 2354

I would have said buy this but the cap is high plus bad news as production not as much as expected.....perhps a bit later on...but CLF and MML look very promising....

niceonecyril - 15 Sep 2010 08:41 - 336 of 2354

28% INCREASE IN SUKARI PROVEN AND PROBABLE RESERVES

Centamin, the gold mining group with operations in Egypt, is pleased to announce
an increase in the Sukari proven and probable reserves to 9.1 million ounces Au,
an increase of 28%. This follows the re-optimisation of the measured and
indicated component of the resource base at a $900/oz gold price. A summary is
as follows:
cyril
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