http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

civil war would be a disaster for iraq.

Not really surprise by T Hayward,only repeating info already known on BB,with no additional progress/

The Ber Bahr -1 well spudded in October 2011 and is testing a large surface anticline and major reservoir targets in the Jurassic and Triassic. Pre drill un-risked resources were estimated at 500mmboe and the well is expected to complete around the end of the second quarter of 2012. In the event of success we would conduct a 3D seismic program and drill the first appraisal well to the northwest of BerBahr-1.

http://www.uploadlibrary.com/foxdavies/GKPBUY200312.pdf
Gulf Keystone (GKP LN)

BUY Current Price: £2.53

Target Price: £3.20
Market Cap (M): £2248 Shares in Issue (M): 855



Value enhancement belied by the fall in share price



The shares have had a roller-coaster ride over the last few months, as the froth associated with bid speculation has driven the price. The recent operational update has provided further support for the prospectivity of GKP’s assets. Following review, we believe that the successes on Shaikan continue to derisk and enlarge the asset, and as such we raise our target price to 320p and reiterate our BUY recommendation.


• Shaikan Keeps Improving: With each successive test of the Shaikan structure, reserves have continued to improve. Shaikan – 4’s flow test results indicate that flow rates from individual horizons are in excess of initial expectations, and that comingled flow rates will exceed 14m bopd. With the latest flow test being focused on a previously untested reservoir horizon (in the Sargelu formation) and appraisal wells Shaikan – 5 & 6 and exploration well Shaikan – 7 aiming to test the deepest prospective undrilled horizons of the Shaikan structure all currently in progress, the scope for further upgrades is significant.


• A Successful Appraisal of the Akri-Bijeel Block Adds 8p to Valuations: Following the completion of the Bekhme-1 exploration well testing programme in December 2011, the Company has received results of an independent evaluation of estimated petroleum resources for the Aqra/Bekhme anticline on the block. While recognizing the fact that no hydrocarbons had flowed to the surface, the report has indicated that there could be up to 5.4bn bbl of oil-in-place. Bekhme adds 8p to our current valuation, so a failure would have very little impact, while a success based on 5.4bn bbl would have significant impact, potentially in excess of 150p.


• Ber Bahr Exploration Another Potential Catalyst: Ber Bahr – 1 exploration well is the next in line to provide an opportunity for a game changer given that GKP has a 40% interest in the block and is targeting resources of 1.5bn bbl; the recent lightning strike, while frustrating, is not sufficient cause for alarm.


• Export Route Underway: The Company has continued the migration of its Kurdistan discovery towards completion with the initiation of the tender process for the construction materials; this follows the earlier initiation of the construction and installation tender process. GKP is currently receiving bids with the technical and commercial evaluation to follow.


• Bid Speculation will Continue to Surround the Company: Save for the history of the country and the more recent sabre rattling from Baghdad, Kurdistan would have been developed before GKP, but as such the Company, along with a handful of other players, have been able to secure first mover advantage in the region. Consequently, once the issues between the Kurdistan Regional Government and Baghdad are resolved, we believe that the independent operators, such as GKP, will come in to play.


• The Longer GKP has Before a Bid, the Better: Given the issues in the region, it is unsurprising that this is not likely to be any time soon. However, this is better for the Company’s valuation as the more progress it achieves in the development cycle the more likely the Company is to receive a fuller valuation for its assets, especially if it is able to complete the export pipeline tendering process.


• Target Price Raised to 320p, Maintain BUY Recommendation: The recent test results and the Company’s continued march towards development means that even if no further hydrocarbons are found, GKPs asset value will improve as the effects of discount on valuations is unwound. As a result, we are upgrading our target price to 320p and reiterating our BUY recommendation.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Mar-20/167363-iraqi-kurd-leader-hints-at-referendum-in-swipe-at-baghdad.ashxhttp://www.krg.org/articles/detail.asp?anr=43432&rnr=&areanr=60&smap=02010000&lngnr=12&utm_source=KRG&utm_medium=KRG.org

http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/investor_presentation_march_2012.pdf

17
Defined path to grow shareholder value
2012
•Delineate Shaikan field
•Appraise Shaikan deep undrilled horizons
•Increase Shaikan EWT output to 30 – 40 kbopd to ramp-up export and domestic sales
•Exploration on Akri-Bijeel, Ber Bahr & Sheikh Adi
•Bijell-1 extended well test on Akri-Bijeel
•Move to the Premium Listing on the London Stock Exchange
•Shaikan pipeline development
•Complete and submit the Shaikan Field Development Plan
•Shaikan pipeline start-up
•Further increase Shaikan EWT output
•Appraisal and early development of exploration successes on Akri-Bijeel, Ber Bahr & Sheikh Adi

rampety, rampety ramp........and so on.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201203220700198466Z

From Wisdomseaker @ 6.18 on uva BB.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GKP.L&display=discussion&it=le

From the last update RNS:

'As part of the ongoing Extended Well Test ("EWT") on the Shaikan block, the output from the Shaikan-1 & 3 EWT facility reached 137,060 gross barrels of oil between 1 January and 6 March 2012.'

From the presentation published yesterday:

'Shaikan test production of over 225,000 gross
barrels of oil from 1 January 2012'


So 7th March to 21st March, if the figures are to yesterday, 87940 barrels in 15 days, 5862 barrels a day.

A share of at least 16billion barrels of oil.


Since we made one of the largest world class discoveries of the last decade at the Shaikan field in 2009, our independently audited mean resource estimates for Shaikan have increased by 375 per cent. In combination with preliminary resource estimates for the equally massive structures of Akri-Bijeel, Ber Bahr and Sheikh Adi, today Gulf Keystone has a share of gross, P50 oil-in-place resources of at least 16 billion barrels across our four licences in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, one of the last frontier oil provinces in the world."

No matter what you think hal, it's not one to be out of.,.

BB todays EXIT EVENT award has caused a lot of excitement,it'll be interesting to see
what effect it has over the coming days?

BB this thread reminds us of the days when Toledo Mining was going to £20.

http://twitter.com/#!/mleftly

loomberg News
Gulf Keystone Rises as Oil Directors Set Rewards for Iraq Sale
By Brian Swint on March 22, 2012

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (GKP), an oil explorer active in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, rose in London after saying some employees would get shares valued at about 26 million pounds ($41 million) if the producer is sold.

The company climbed as much as 6.5 percent after saying today it would issue 10 million new shares to be awarded to staff in the event of a sale of at least half of the company or its assets. Chief Executive Officer Todd Kozel would get 300,000 shares in a so-called exit event, it said in a statement.

Gulf Keystone rose 3.3 percent to 260 pence by 9:31 a.m. in London trading, giving it a market value of 2.2 billion pounds.

The company discovered as much as 10 billion barrels of oil in the Shaikan field in northern Iraq, a region that has drawn increasing interest from producers. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) last year became the biggest company to join the hunt for oil and gas in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region, home to about 40 percent of the country’s estimated 115 billion barrels of reserves.

Gulf Keystone “have a multibillion barrel field which will require a big investment,” said Dougie Youngson, an analyst at Seymour Pierce Ltd. in London. “That means there will likely be some sort of transaction. This year’s all about shoring up the asset base, a sale is more likely next year.”

The company also said as many as 10 million shares would be awarded over the next three years in the form of bonuses.


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-22/gulf-keystone-rises-as-oi

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/28967/gulf-keystone-announcement-sparks-sale-rumours

Those were the days hal.....lol

They didn't want it (in fact no-one did when they looked at it, as they thought there was no closure on the structure, so little chance of any resources being contained); they wanted Sangaw North (ha ha ha), but it was too expensive.

So, take the fact that they got Shaikan out of the "I deserve a big bonus payment" pot, thanks.

What does that leave us with then?

Well, whilst we (fortunately) hit the jackpot with the first drill (and subsequent drills too), the nature of the cretacious formations means drilling successfully here is difficult, VERY DIFFICULT - first tick in the box for the bonus payment pot - they've delivered in the drilling stakes, big time.

How many other companies have screwed up their drilling in Kurdistan? Quite a few, and quite a few that have taken FAR LONGER than GKP to do that too.......

Aside from the above, I see very little else that is deserving of such bonus payments; particularly when TK is paid so handsomely for running the company in the first place.

He (and GKP) got lucky.

Unfortunately, he appears (to me anyway) to be full of it now, when he forgets it was "like shooting fish in a barrel" because he was LUCKY with Shaikan.

If he had employed Adnan Samarrai prior to bidding for blocks and had gone the extra mile to get Shaikan on board (and the surrounding assets), then he might have a case.

Worth remembering that IMO.

Lagos40 - 23 Mar'12 - 08:59

Interesting post from CarlosAlberto @8:44 on iii.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:GKP.L&display=discussion&it=le


I have been digging around and have acquired a transcript of the ‘early’ hearing on 24th February.

And some very interesting ‘News’ there is too.
Primarily the hearing was about setting dates for Witness and Expert statements to be completed by for a Pre Trial Review on the 20th July.


“MR. JUSTICE COOKE: I am going to set the following timetable on the basis that the only reason for needing to set this timetable is because of the default of the defendants on their own evidence, both in relation to dealing with disclosure and witness statements and indeed the availability of the very people whose presence is essential in order to draft the witness statements in question. The risk of any different timetable to my mind is that the trial date could be jeopardised and a critical point in that context is having a PTR on 20th July, when it can be seen exactly what the position is and the parties' readiness for trial can be evaluated. So it will be witness statements by close of business on 13th April. There will be experts … close of business on the relevant day, 1st June. Supplementary witness statements, 15th June. Experts' meetings, 15th June. Joint memorandum of experts 29th June. Supplementary experts' reports, 6th July. Trial bundles, 13th July. PTR, 20th July. “

However.............
It is quite easily deduced that TK, JG with legal and finance teams were out in China the first week of March, and that TK would be taking a holiday the week afterwards. This meeting has been in the arranging since November.
And that TK has been spending a considerable amount of time on the Ftse listing.( so they say )

Here is some of the relevant parts of the transcript.


“one learns from Mr. Rands' witness statement the day before yesterday what the movements are of Mr. Kozel up to 16th March, including the fact that we learn that Mr. Kozel has chosen to book a holiday in the week of 16th March.........

MR. JUSTICE COOKE: The position is this, Mr. Picken, as I understand it - and Mr. Matovu will correct me if I am wrong - but in very broad terms the two most senior figures are not going to be available, the two …, until after 16th March............


MR. MATOVU: The position in relation to Mr. Kozel is, as you know, he runs this company. One of the major issues in the business of the company concerns the possibility, which has been adumbrated in the press, of a movement to the official list. That is something that is taking up a great deal of his time. The business trip to China is one which, as your Lordship sees, is market sensitive; it is one which was being considered back in November. When I got my learned friend's skeleton I took instructions as to what the position was in relation to that. My instructions are that that business trip was being considered back in November. It involves not just Mr. Kozel but also Mr. …, his Chief Operating Officer; it involves finance advisers, it involves external legal advisers, and it involves a number of counterparties in the Far East who this team is going to see. The diaries have had to be moved constantly since November to accommodate all those different parties and interests, and it is only now that it has emerged that the only time that all these parties can come together is in the week of next March when they have to travel. It is for that reason that this business trip has had to be brought in at this time, and that is a classic example, my Lord, of why it is that whilst Excalibur can focus exclusively on this case, my clients and my witnesses have responsibility not only to the company and to their shareholders but also obligations in fulfilling those responsibilities which mean that they cannot devote 100% of the time to this litigation. That does not in any way mean, my Lord, that they do not take this litigation seriously. They most certainly do. It is a huge piece of litigation, but it is unfortunate that they have got to that stage in relation to the China trip.


As to the holiday, no, Mr. Rands' evidence in para.41 of his witness statement is that Mr. Kozel has one weeks' holiday in the Far East the following week. Not that he hopes to have a holiday, he has a holiday.”

So there we have it, definitive proof that we are in 'official' talks with the Chinese.

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/business/business-news/gulf-keystone-bid-hope-7583419.html