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Ryan Air - Shorting Opportunity (RYA)     

spitfire43 - 12 Feb 2008 10:20

Recently announced a profit warning saying profits could fall 50% next year. The problem is they are unhedged on fuel for next year, and they state if oil remains at $85 RYA will suffer. The P/E is 12.55, falling to 11.15 next year if we see no more downgrades. There is 0% yield to support the price, which has fallen from 625 to 348.

Looking at the chart RYA are in a very pronounced bear channel, I believe resistance would be the last lower high at 405, with no obvious support apart from the lower line in bear channel 300?. Share is trying to recover now from 350 to 363 today, if it fails to break the 405 resistance and reverses I believe this would be a short signal.

Any views welcome.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RYA&Si

HARRYCAT - 16 Aug 2013 14:36 - 32 of 56

Romney marshes!? Conservationists would never allow it! Quite a tricky engineering feat also I would think.

HARRYCAT - 16 Aug 2013 14:39 - 33 of 56

Just a quick trip & cheap, thanks to a certain Irish Airline!

skinny - 16 Aug 2013 14:39 - 34 of 56

Kent already has an International Airport - Manston.

cynic - 16 Aug 2013 14:41 - 35 of 56

be very very wary of the tax implications and other nasties ..... i think it's may not be as tasty as first appears

HARRYCAT - 16 Aug 2013 14:47 - 36 of 56

Thanks Mr C. I have already done a huge amount of research and will have to take professional advice if & when it happens, but I think that it is feasible. I know there are lots of pitfalls, but not insurmountable. Am just conducting research atm. However, I presume that Corbières (Carignan & Grenache) is not an area you would ideally choose? ;o)

halifax - 16 Aug 2013 16:04 - 37 of 56

Harry much cheaper to rent than buy.

halifax - 16 Aug 2013 16:07 - 38 of 56

Lydd aiport awaiting planning approval to increase scheduled flights already has a regular flight to Le Touquet, close to M20 and Ashford International rail to London 40 minutes.

cynic - 16 Aug 2013 17:23 - 39 of 56

some surprisingly good wines are now made in relatively unlikely places
i also concur with hali

HARRYCAT - 16 Aug 2013 20:47 - 40 of 56

"some surprisingly good wines are now made in relatively unlikely places"........eloquently put Mr C! However, to the west is Bordeaux country and to the east is Rhône country, so stuck in the middle isn't such a bad option!

cynic - 16 Aug 2013 22:06 - 41 of 56

i thought there was sea to the east

doodlebug4 - 04 Sep 2013 17:12 - 42 of 56

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10285941/Profits-warning-looks-like-comeuppance-for-Ryanairs-motormouth-boss-Michael-OLeary.html

halifax - 04 Sep 2013 17:35 - 43 of 56

not before time!

skinny - 03 Feb 2014 07:21 - 44 of 56

3rd Quarter Results

RYANAIR REPORTS Q3 LOSS OF €35M IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE,
TRAFFIC GROWS 6% TO 18M - FARES & UNIT COSTS FALL 9%,
FULL YEAR PROFIT GUIDANCE OF €510M UNCHANGED

Ryanair, Europe's favourite low fares airline today (Feb 3) reported a Q3 Loss of €35m, in line with previous guidance. Traffic grew 6% to 18m passengers. Revenue per passenger declined 6%, as strong ancillary revenue growth offset a 9% fall in fares. Excluding fuel, sector length adjusted unit costs fell by 9%. Ryanair's full year profit guidance remains unchanged at approx. €510m.

cynic - 03 Feb 2014 08:20 - 45 of 56

Ryanair, Europe's favourite low fares airline

now there's a company that believes its own hype!
i don't think i have ever heard anyone mutter a complimentary word about this bunch, and that's no surprise

HARRYCAT - 25 Sep 2014 10:16 - 46 of 56

StockMarketWire.com
Ryanair said the continuing success of these 'Always Getting Better' initiatives has enabled it to raise its FY traffic forecast from 86m to 87m customers, and move its FY net profit towards the upper end of its (previously guided) 620m-650m euros range.

Ryanair's Michael O'Leary said:
"We now expect slightly stronger traffic growth in the winter schedule, as we open new bases in primary airports at Cologne, Gdansk, Glasgow and Warsaw Modlin, as well as significantly increasing flight frequencies and schedules from Dublin to UK cities, and from Dublin to European capitals.

"While still too early to be confident about H2 fares and yields, the continuing strength of our forward bookings and the improving customer experience leads us to cautiously raise our full year traffic forecast to 87m customers, and our full year profit guidance towards the upper end of our current 620m-650m euros range.

"However, the full year profit outturn continues to be heavily dependent on H2 yields over which we have very little visibility at present. We will give an update on Q3 yield performance at our half year results announcement in early November."

HARRYCAT - 05 Dec 2014 08:55 - 47 of 56

Ryanair today (5 Dec) confirmed that it will refund the £13 UK travel tax for all children (under-12) who check-in on flights departing the UK from 1st May 2015, following the decision of UK Chancellor George Osborne to abolish children's APD from 1st May next.

However, Ryanair announced that it will go even further than Chancellor Osborne and refund children's APD on UK flights for the six weeks from 27th March 2015, earlier than any other airline (or Chancellor Osborne), thereby allowing children to fly from the UK tax free for the Easter holidays so that British families can make even greater savings on their Easter breaks, as part of Ryanair's "Family Extra" service.

Refunding this UK APD for kids over the Easter Holiday period will cost Ryanair up to £2m, and is the latest in a series of customer experience improvements under Ryanair's "Always Getting Better" programme, which includes a new website, a new mobile app (with boarding passes), and the new "Family Extra" and "Business Plus" services, as Ryanair continues to deliver so much more than just the lowest fares.

cynic - 05 Dec 2014 16:47 - 48 of 56

i don't recollect anyone ever saying what a great airline ryanair was to fly with .... indeed, only the opposite ..... and then try to get a refund or similar from them

o'leary is so sharp it's amazing he hasn't yet cut his own throat

HARRYCAT - 04 Feb 2015 14:11 - 49 of 56

StockMarketWire.com
Ryanair's traffic figures rose by 30% to 5.98 million customers in January, while the load factor rose by 12% points to 83%.

Rolling annual traffic to January grew 8% to 87.8 million customers.

Chief marketing officer Kenny Jacobs said the increase was due to its lower fares and the continuing success of its 'Always Getting Better' customer programme, which delivered stronger forward bookings and better than expected load factors across its significantly expanded winter schedule.

He added: "With our great new routes, increased frequencies and Business Plus service, Ryanair continues to deliver so much more than just the lowest fares in every market we operate in."

HARRYCAT - 26 May 2015 13:23 - 51 of 56

Barclays note today:
"Q4 performance. Q4 net income was €23m. Average fares fell 9%, which is actually slightly worse than guidance (-6% to -8%), but must be taken in the context of stronger load factors. We would see this as self-inflicted: we believe Ryanair slightly mismanaged revenue through the winter, with opportunities to improve as it learns how to better balance price/load factor on a very different route network to its historical winter offering. Ancillaries fell 4%, which is a timing issue associated with credit card fees/earlier booking patterns vs last year. Ex-fuel unit costs were -10% (driven by 10ppt load factor improvement).
Summer outlook. Ryanair is guiding for average fares of 0% to -2% through the summer, which is slightly weaker than we would have expected, especially given support from GBP/EUR (which we estimate is at least a 3ppt tailwind). However, this is offset by stronger load factor performance (~4ppt through Q2, hitting tougher comps from July onwards). Forward bookings are running 4% ahead of last year.
FY outlook includes winter 2015/16 caution. Ryanair is taking its traditional very cautious view on the winter, with average fares assumed to fall -4% to -8%, leading to FY yield decline of -2% to -4%. This leads to FY net income guidance of €940m-€970m. Ryanair has a track record of being very conservative at the start of the year, and, given that it commented at Q3 to expect ‘modest’ profit growth in FY16, we think the fact that it is moving directly to 10% growth in initial guidance will be taken positively. There is also no reference in the statement to Ryanair actually seeing pricing weakness, instead, “we may suffer periods of fare/yield weakness”. Ex-fuel unit costs are expected to be flat in FY16, which we think is encouraging, given the pace of load factor is slowing and Ryanair is still moving into primary airports.

· Hedging. There is very little change to hedging levels compared to the analyst presentation at the end of March. Capex is now 100% hedged through to FY18.

· Cash returns. The H1 buyback (€400m) is confirmed, but there is not yet any commitment to shareholder returns through the winter."
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