THIS NEWS WILL CERTAINLY MAKE THE SHARES INCREASE WHEN IT IS ANNOUNCED.


In March 2003, First African Oil Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of
Circle signed a two year exclusive reconnaissance licence with the Government
of Namibia covering approximately 146,000 km2, an area more than half the size
of the UK. The Licence is one of the largest in Africa and the Namibian
Government holds a 10% carried interest. Within this concession area, and with
the benefit of a valuable dataset of previously acquired technical information,
Circle believes there is potential to produce significant quantities of
valuable hydrocarbons. An aerogravity survey was carried out during the summer
at a cost of 415,000 and initial results of the survey are very encouraging.
The final report on this programme is due within the next few weeks.

Personally (Just IMHO!) I think there is more to COP than this Namibian negotiation. Looking at the geographical spread of the whole Operation and reading between the lines, I think they have many irons in many fires. I didn't buy merely because of the Nam Gov link but for reasons like who the key players are and their experience and contacts across the Globe. Even if Nam fails they have enough funds to look elsewhere for major JV partners.

The sp has already surpassed my initial target sell price and so I'm breaking all my own rules in holding on for a while longer!

I received the software disc today so please email me privately when you get the chance. I want try a few dummie runs before I start doing what you do!

Regards,

Kus.

Up by 13% already today! and rising..... Wonder what's goin on?

Hi Kus

Yes COP is looking good again today another good rise.





Good Luck

Eddie

Since COP's spread narrowed severely towards close of day yet the bid (sell) price remained constant (at 36p) throughout, I think the stock is becoming a lot more liquid. There is definately something happening behind the scenes but what, when and where does it all end, who knows?

It's CONTINUAL rise is relentless. Huge transactions taking place yet the sp still rises. MM's soaking up stock without any sweat!

Any ideas, anyone?

The IRS Report
15th January 2005

Virtuous Circle could become a ten-bagger with oilex success
by James Morton

In November 2001 I first met the management of First Calgary. Without wishing to impugn management, the company had little going for it at that time. It had no revenues, was losing about C$1m a year, and had precious little cash. The market capitalisation at the time was only C$20m. But it had somehow acquired a couple of really interesting Algerian concessions in an area known for oil and gas. With some trepidation I bought shares at 60 cents. In early 2003 the company having unveiled interesting seismic results had a blip during drilling, so I bailed out just shy of C$3 per share, making nearly 500% and thinking what a marvellous investment.

But now I do not look so clever as the share price is C$18 and the market cap over C$3bn. This could be my next big winner Ever since I have been searching for another First Calgary. Possibly, just possibly, I may have stumbled across a candidate that could enliven your 2005 portfolio.

If, like me, you believe that short-term gyrations aside, the long-term trend in the oil price will be upward because demand is going to rise remorselessly as more and more consumers especially in China and India increase their usage, then you want to own oil and gas stocks.

The bigger international names should be safer, though as we found out with Shell not everything is as it appears, even in supposedly blue chip companies. So you might as well look at the riskier end of the spectrum where if things go right rewards are going to be substantial. Who would not like to find the next Cairn?

Newcomer on AIM

Circle Oil is a relatively recent arrival on AIM as of October 2004. The current 28p values the company at 34m. Like First Calgary 3 years ago, Circle has little going for it on the surface.

The financials do not inspire confidence there are no revenues and a relatively short history, while money raised on listing will soon be expended on licence fees and exploration commitments. But like First Calgary this tiny company has managed to latch on to what looks like particularly interesting acreage, this time in Namibia.

It secured a two-year exclusive reconnaissance licence covering 146,000 square kilometres with Namcor, the national oil company, retaining a 10% carried interest. Circle will carry out exploration activities and testing in two main areas. Firstly on the shore in the southern part of the country adjacent to blocks held by Hunt Oil. There is an enormous amount of activity offshore along the African coast, mostly further north, but Circles area can be considered prospective.


Close to known Angolan reserves

The other concentration will be in the north, on the Angolan border. There is a fair amount of oil just across the frontier and it would be surprising if nothing were found on the Namibian side. Limited drilling history means most acreage is virgin territory and so is speculative. But preliminary work in the Oponono Structure carried out by previous operator Occidental in 1993 suggested there might be a significant reserve with potential recoverable oil resources ranging from 46 to 295 million barrels. Even the bottom of this range puts the company on a valuation of only US$1.35 per barrel while at the upper end it falls to a mere 17 cents. A price of US$2 per barrel would not be expensive.And Oponono is only one part of one block. There are other areas with potential.

A little oil will be enough

The point is that Circle does not have to find much oil to make its current valuation look derisory. If it were to find commercial quantities todays share price will be a distant memory. There are also offshore Irish interests that are not half bad, but the main play is the Namibian licence that could lead to a substantial new oil area.

Circle may not be the 30-bagger that First Calgary became, but with a slice of luck it could be a 10-bagger.

Squaring the Circle

Companies like Circle are more risky than most. For starters, Namibia is not the UK. While management has a 5-year history of working with the government, that is no guarantee their relationship will stay satisfactory. The current licence expires at the end of March. The company believes it is close to negotiating an extension and to obtaining a more comprehensive licence for the second phase. But there is no certainty that they will succeed. That said, given their history and assuming a successful new capital raising, it would be surprising if they were not able to obtain an additional licence.

More cash needed

The money which Circle has now will not go far. The company says it will not need additional capital to fund its planned exploration this year but longerterm, additional money will have to be found, probably from some combination of debt, equity and a joint venture deal with a major oil company a farm-in that will dilute Circles interests. Finally management, though experienced, may not possess the full range of technical capabilities in-house to complete this programme.

There are financial and operational risks. If not the price would be higher now. If you want to consider a small flutter in Circle, remember that if things go wrong you could lose your entire investment. But the upside is just too exciting to ignore.

James Morton is Investment Director of European American Securities Inc, advisor to Cundill International. Cundill International owns shares in Equator Exploration. European American Securities also advises Perinvest Special Situations Fund. Perinvest Special Situations Fund owns shares in Circle andZari. James Morton also owns shares in Circle and Zari in his SIPP.

Ends.

Immediate release: 25 January 2005

Circle Oil Plc ('Circle' or 'the Company')

Statement Regarding Price Rise

The directors of Circle note the recent rise in the Company's share price.

The Company is currently in the final stages of negotiation with potential
partners to exploit its current licences and will make further announcements in
due course.

-Ends-

David Hough, Managing Director

Circle Oil PLC

Tel. +353 61 354831

Ben Simons

Hansard Communications

Tel. 020 7245 1100



wilbs

Geoff Foster, Daily Mail
25 January 2005


Circle Oil, the fledgling oil exploration company, gushed 7p to 44p on heavy turnover of 5.7m amid talk of an imminent upbeat drilling report.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/tips-and-tactics/article.html?in_article_id=397395&in_page_id=23


wilbs

Look at cop go. Up 17.17%!!!!
There must be news coming else why the big increase?
wilbs

wilbs,
you must be laughing all the way to the pub!!!!!!!!!!!!!
dexter

dexter,
Funny you should say that, Im popping down later for a quick one. Ive had a good week so far(makes a change!!). I really cant understand what is going on with cop,If its rising on waiting of news whats it going to if positive news is announced? Its like another pet but not as risky imho.Thought seo would of had a small rise.
wilbs

Some of us, half & half..... Sold some recently but holding my nerve with the rest..... Hanging on for the ride.......

Should have realised - MMs are stockpiling, you can tell by the way the trades are being reported. Can only mean one thing.....

Wonder when it will all end though? What topps will be?

Ive not sold any yet,gonna ride it out as long as I can,If sp drops then ill sell.What will tomorrow bring????????????????????
wilbs

That was my plan, Wilbs. But kept putting it off until it took a slight drop the other day. If I'd waited 3 hours I would've seen it go up another 5p! In future, will follow my instincts. But all profit from here so must think on the positive side......

Tomorrow? Just waiting for news so will probably drift higher or stay flat. can't see people bailing out now at this stage when an RNS is due, can you?

I dont think people will be bailing out either, maybe just top slicing. I have set a stop loss at 46p. I will still come out good. An RNS must be iniment otherwise there is no explaination of the recent sp move?
wilbs

Unknown territory, Wilbs. Just IMHO: I think news will be merely re: a major farm-in partner. Hardly likely to strike oil for a while yet, are they? All oil and gas cos are in favour akin to dot.com days - and look what happened to them, in the end! For now, we are all riding the crest of the wave. Might be best to consider bailing out (maybe leave a few in for the very long term) AS SOON AS whatever is announced - is announced? I dn't know? I do like the co and the people in charge though. Top people.

marcusantonius,
I agree with what you are saying 100% but all the recent spec in the press is great for cop. Speculation of the chinese being a farm in partner will be great for us share holders. Look how the sp has performed lately? It will only take an RNS for news and what will the sp go to? Its been rising for no reason but even a little bit of news is what everyone has been waiting for, the sp must go north somewhat. Maybe not to 100p but80p-90p? I will hold out unless my stoploss kicks in.
Great company with lots of potential but I dont hold for long term. I am in for a quick profit and move on to the next.Why hold on when there are more opps waiting to be had?
Comments would be appreciated.
All IMHO

wilbs

Still think there will be a minor set back (profit-taking) if no news for a fortnight or so.....?

What other opps, Wilbs? Must be a goodun to rank on a par with COP!

hold onto your hats guys!!

Circle Oil in $50m Africa drilling deal with Chinese group
By James Boxell
Published: January 28 2005 02:00 | Last updated: January 28 2005 02:00

Circle Oil, the Aim-traded exploration group, will today end weeks of market speculation about a significant deal by unveiling a $50m-plus alliance in Africa with a Chinese state-owned energy group.


Circle only joined Aim in October, but its shares have more than doubled in the past month.

The company was forced to put out an announcement this week saying it was in the "final stages of negotiation with potential partners to exploit current licences".

Such extreme share price rises by tiny companies with unproven assets has led to fears that the UK independent oil sector - driven by record crude prices - is showing signs of irrational exuberance similar to that shown by the dotcom industry in the 1990s. Circle shares - which floated at 20p - rose a further 5p to 54p yesterday.

Circle is understood to have signed a deal with China Shine, which will see the private Chinese group take a 72 per cent interest in the vehicle that owns Circle's onshore exploration licence in Namibia.

China Shine will spend at least $50m on drilling three exploration wells in the 40m acre concession area, although Circle is pinning its hopes on further drilling by the Chinese company.

Occidental Petroleum, the US oil group, previously owned the Namibian concession but pulled out in the 1990s after failing to find oil.

Circle believes advances in technology and deeper drilling will give it a greater chance of success.

China Shine's investment in Namibia comes as Chinese state-owned oil groups are scouring the world to secure oil assets.

It will not pay Circle for the stake, but the Aim-listed group will maintain an 18 per cent stake in the field and will not invest any of its own money in exploration drilling.


http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4b119b1c-70d2-11d9-b572-00000e2511c8.html

wilbs