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Taylor Wimpey Fundamentals (TW.)

Manuel,

Consider policies in home/house ownership as a consolidation of wealth in a smaller and smaller section of the population.

Also, consider the effects of doing so.

Consider the change of expectancies and goals.

Mentor - the chart looks fine on my 23" screen!

fred - why do i need to philosophise? ....... i see you're happy to try to make money from these (and other) shares, and so am i ...... certainly makes you on of the champagne socialists

house ownership, like worthless uni education (attendance!), is deemed a holy grail, but houses will still be needed whether for end-users to own or to rent

skinny

re - chart

consider the size is 1000 and most computers will show as Max 900 MAM allows 920 but the top of MAM from home to help is only 900.

Others can say if they can see it all or have to scroll just a bit more to see the end of the chart

Ok - changed to 900.

DOWNNNNNNN ............. UPPPPPPPPP

UK govt says incorrect to infer "Help to Buy" review means cancellation
Fri, 4th Aug 2017 10:30

LONDON, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The British government said that it was incorrect to infer that its 'Help to Buy' scheme, aimed at boosting home ownership, would be cancelled after a review of the programme.

Shares of UK homebuilders slumped on Friday after trade publication Property Week said the scheme could be wound up early, citing a review into the programme to be conducted by the London School of Economics.

"The department regularly reviews the Help to Buy Equity Loan Scheme, with the last review taking place in 2015," a spokesman from the Department for Communities and Local Government said. "To infer from this that the Help to Buy Equity Loan scheme will be cancelled is simply incorrect."

.

well picked up mentor, though builders' shares have not exactly rebounded sharply

Are house prices due for a correction?
at 7.6 times earnings back at last March, not many can afford those prices
Expensive house builders are the ones will suffer most.....

From the Guardian- March 2017

Median price paid for a home leapt 259% between 1997 and 2016 while earnings rose only 68%, say ONS affordability data
In 1997, house prices were on average about 3.6 times workers’ annual gross full-time earnings.
In 1997, house prices were on average about 3.6 times workers’ annual gross full-time earnings.

Rising house prices now stand at an average 7.6 times the average annual salary, more than double the figure for 20 years ago, according to official figures.

However, the new headline figure disguises dramatic regional variations. In the affluent London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, house prices are typically 38.5 times greater than annual earnings, but, 330 miles to the north-west, prices in Copeland, Cumbria, which includes the port of Whitehaven, are typically 2.8 times the average salary.

The new figures for housing affordability in England and Wales between 1997 and 2016 have been issued by the Office for National Statistics. They said the median price paid for a home leapt by 259% over this period, while median individual annual earnings could only manage a 68% rise.

The ONS said housing affordability “has worsened in all local authority districts”. In 1997, house prices were on average about 3.6 times workers’ annual gross full-time earnings.

In 2016, Kensington and Chelsea was the least affordable area to buy a property in England and Wales. The ratio of house prices to annual income stood at 38.5 times average annual salary – more than three times the figure in 1997, when it was 11.8 times earnings. In January this year a detached house in the borough sold for £24.2m, according to the Land Registry.

Copeland, meanwhile, has been officially named “the most affordable” local authority area in England and Wales. A two-bed terraced property in Whitehaven can be picked up for £45,000 or so, according to the property website Rightmove.

Of the 10 least affordable local authorities, seven were in London. For example, in 1999, an employee in the borough of Camden could expect to pay 7.7 times their annual salary on buying a property, whereas in 2016 this had leapt to an average 19.6 times their annual earnings.

Other areas saw much smaller increases over the same period. In Hyndburn in Lancashire, the equivalent figure has risen from 2.6 times to 4.1 times earnings.

UK house price growth weakest in more than four years -Halifax - Mon, 7th Aug 2017 10:06

LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - British house prices rose at their slowest pace in more than four years in the three months to July as households felt the pinch of inflation which is rising faster than wages, mortgage lender Halifax said on Monday.

Average house prices in the period were 2.1 percent higher than a year earlier, slowing from a 2.6 percent increase in June's figures and down from growth of more than 8 percent in July last year, Halifax said.

Economists in a Reuters poll had expected a 2.0 percent rise.

Russell Galley, managing director of Halifax Community Bank, said the squeeze on spending power, plus the impact of property tax changes in 2016 and affordability concerns, was weighing on demand.

In July alone, house prices rose by 0.4 percent, partially recovering from a monthly fall of 0.9 percent in June and slightly stronger than a median forecast for growth of 0.2 percent in the Reuters poll.

Prices fell by 0.2 percent between May and July compared with the previous three months, the fourth successive quarterly fall and marking the longest such decline since November 2012.

Britain's housing market has slowed sharply since the vote in June 2016 to leave the European Union, when prices were growing by almost 10 percent a year.

The slowdown has contributed to a fall in consumer confidence. Credit card firm Visa said on Monday that British consumer spending fell for the third month in a row in July in its longest losing streak in over four years. The fall in house prices, on an annual basis, measured by Halifax contrasted with a slight pick-up in prices as measured by rival mortgage lender Nationwide and published last week.

Both lenders say the growth in prices is not weaker than it already is due to a lack of homes on the market.

A Reuters poll of economists published in May produced a median forecast for house prices to rise by around 2 percent in 2017, 2018 and 2019, slower than in the previous Reuters poll published in February

on the other hand, foreign money will find house prices progressively cheaper as £ weakens
foreign money does not just buy the super-swanky pads, but also interests itself in lettable properties and similar

Trading Statement

Overview
Pete Redfern, Chief Executive, commented:

"Taylor Wimpey has performed strongly during the second half of 2017, delivering excellent sales rates and making further good progress against our operational targets. While we are alert to potential political and economic risks, demand for new housing remains high across the UK and market conditions are favourable. Notwithstanding the recent small increase in the base rate, we have continued to see stability in trading patterns.

Looking ahead, we are on track to meet our full year expectations and deliver further growth and performance improvement in 2018. With a strong balance sheet in place and a high-quality landbank, our business is very well positioned to deliver sustainable growth".

UK current trading
The UK housing market has remained positive through the second half of 2017. Customer demand continued to be robust supported by healthy employment trends, a competitive mortgage market and the Government's Help to Buy scheme. We have experienced favorable trading patterns across our businesses, while in Central London market conditions remain stable.

Sales rates for the year to date have continued to be strong at 0.81 sales per outlet per week (2016 equivalent period: 0.75). For the second half of the year to date, sales rates are 0.71 (2016 equivalent period: 0.70), with a sales rate of 0.73 over the last 8 weeks (2016 equivalent period: 0.73). Cancellation rates for the year remain low at 13% (2016 equivalent period: 13%). For the year to date we have operated on an average of 290 outlets (2016 equivalent period: 291). Current outlets stand at 285, slightly higher than the equivalent period last year.

The current total order book, excluding joint ventures, of 8,751 homes, is slightly below last year (2016 equivalent period: 8,981), and stands at c.£2.2 billion (2016 equivalent period: c.£2.3 billion).

Build costs are expected to increase 3-4% this year, as previously indicated, with the greater pressure coming from labour costs and a more modest level of cost inflation in building materials.

Land
The land market remains very attractive and we continued to acquire land on compelling financial metrics. With our short term landbank at broadly optimal scale we are operating on a replacement basis, and therefore remain disciplined in our approach, only pursuing opportunities that meet our investment and location criteria. Having added c.13,700 plots to the short term landbank in the year to the end of October, the short term landbank has grown slightly to c.80k plots, with the strategic landbank at c.107k plots.

In August, as previously announced, the Group acquired part of the Mount Pleasant estate, in Central London, from the Royal Mail for a total cash consideration of £190 million. The development represents an excellent multi-year development opportunity in a high-quality location, with attractive financial metrics that meet all the Group's key investment criteria. Separately, our Major Developments business has recently announced a joint venture agreement with Wandsworth London Borough Council for the regeneration of Winstanley and York Road estates that will provide more than 2,200 new homes, in addition to significant new amenities and facilities for the local community.

Spain current trading
The Spanish housing market has remained strong throughout 2017. The order book for our Spanish business stands at 388 homes as of 5 November 2017 (2016 equivalent period: 342 homes). We expect the business to report another year of growth in operating profit* in 2017 (FY 2016: £20.6 million operating profit*).

Group financial position
We expect net cash at the end of 2017 to be around £500 million (31 December 2016: £365 million), subject to the timing of conditional land purchases, and after the payment of £450 million of dividends to shareholders in 2017.

Leasehold
At the conclusion of our leasehold review we made a provision in the first half accounts, before tax, of £130 million, which we continue to believe is an appropriate estimate. Following the launch of our Ground Rent Review Assistance Scheme in April, we were pleased to reach agreements with freeholders to enable the substantial majority of our customers with a ten-year doubling lease to convert ground rent terms to an RPI based structure, should they elect to participate. Converting to an RPI based structure addresses concerns about the mortgageability and saleability of these properties. We continue to make good progress towards securing agreements with other freeholders to also enable the conversion of the remaining doubling ground rent leases. We expect a modest cash impact in 2017 with the majority of the outflow to be spread over approximately the next two years.

Outlook
We are on track to deliver FY17 results in line with our expectations, and we expect to achieve further growth and performance improvement in 2018. In FY17 we expect to deliver an increase in the operating profit* margin (FY 2016: 20.8%), a return on net operating assets** of over 30% and we also confirm the FY18 total dividend of c.£500 million, subject to relevant shareholder approvals. We reiterate our intent to make further material capital returns in 2019 and beyond, and we will provide further details at our Strategy Day next year. We remain highly focused on driving improvements in all our operational disciplines and are pleased with the continued progress being made with both our customer and product offerings.

Whilst underlying market conditions remain healthy and we have seen no evidence of a change in trading patterns we are nevertheless alert to the potential risks from heightened political and economic uncertainty. Our strategy, based on a robust balance sheet, a high quality landbank and a strong order book, provides the flexibility and resilience to enable us to manage any change in market conditions, if required.

* Operating profit is defined as profit on ordinary activities before net finance costs, exceptional items and tax, after share of results of joint ventures.
** Return on net operating assets is defined as 12 month operating profit divided by the average of the opening and closing net operating assets, which is defined as net assets less net cash less deferred tax balances, less any accrued dividends.

-Ends-

Is that the end of the road for house builders rising?

Official UK house prices figures fall as Bank of England mulls rates

(ShareCast News) - Official UK figures showed house prices are falling more than expected and are predicted to worsen in coming months.

The official house price index fell by 0.5% month-to-month in October, the Office for National Statistics revealed on Tuesday.

House prices in September were also revised down by 0.6%. As a result, the year-over-year growth rate decreased to 4.5% in October from 4.8% in September, well below the consensus, 5.2%

bermon: IMHO Many houses needed for the many low-paid folk in our cities.... until that is fixed builders like TW can / should address Big Builds as well as "Gentry Estates"
Recent TV "ww2-Blitz" programme showed Scottish Tenements - IMHO a good design, using modern methods . . But why not in a cruciform, so more apartments per floor? Could this solve the Council-house low-paid problem, while keeping building to less than (Say) ten floors? Folks are wary of Tower-Blocks... but they are "Most economical" - so something has to be design-driven, if ever the "Housing Shortage" is to be fixed with the rising population expectations. Maybe a linking feature would permit greater height, so there is an "Escape route" while preventing antisocial behaviour . . . one aspect where Middle-Class designs fail. For low-cost: 10-story double-cruiciform (i.e linked)... well, why not?

For completeness :- Trading statement for the year ended 31 Dec 2017

Taylor Wimpey is issuing the following update on trading ahead of its full year results for the year ended 31 December 2017, which will be announced on 28 February 2018.

Overview

Pete Redfern, Chief Executive, commented:

"We achieved a strong financial and operational performance in 2017 and are continuing to deliver against our strategy. Despite wider macroeconomic uncertainty, housing market fundamentals remain solid and our trading performance has been good. We continue to increase housing completions, achieving 5% growth during the year, and ended 2017 with a good forward order book.

We were particularly pleased with the improvements in our customer satisfaction metrics during the year, which were the result of a number of changes made to our approach in 2016. In the last six months we recorded average customer satisfaction scores of over 90%, and we will continue to prioritise making further improvements in this area.

We go into 2018 with positive momentum and expect to achieve further progress against our medium term targets. Our focused strategy of managing the business through the cycle, while also driving further operational improvements, will enable us to continue to deliver long term value for shareholders."

UK current trading

Against the backdrop of a positive housing market in 2017, we continued to see good demand and trading throughout the year. Customers continued to benefit from a wide range of mortgage products, low interest rates and the Government's Help to Buy scheme. Employment trends continue to be healthy and customer confidence remains robust.

In 2017 total home completions increased by 5% to 14,541, including joint ventures (2016: 13,881). During 2017 we delivered 2,809 affordable homes (2016: 2,690), including joint ventures, equating to 19% of total completions (2016: 19%).

Our net private reservation rate for 2017 was 0.77 homes per outlet per week (2016: 0.72), and cancellation rates remained low at 13% (2016: 13%). Average selling prices on private completions increased by 3% to £296k (2016: £286k), with the overall average selling price increasing by 4% to £264k (2016: £255k).

We ended 2017 with an order book valued at £1,628 million as at 31 December 2017 (31 December 2016: £1,682 million), excluding joint ventures. This order book represents 7,136 homes (31 December 2016: 7,567 homes), which has fallen slightly, as we have increased the pace of production so as to meet market demand in the year.

We enter 2018 with 278 outlets (31 December 2016: 285) and traded from an average of 287 outlets in 2017 (2016: 290). Build cost inflation in 2017 was 3-4% and we expect a similar rate of inflation in 2018 given resourcing pressures in the sector.

Following the introduction of a number of changes to our customer service approach in 2016, we are pleased to note an improvement in customer satisfaction, averaging a score of over 90% in the last six months.

Land

The short term land market continued to be positive in 2017. As planned, we operated at broadly replacement levels given our landbank is around optimal scale. As at the end of December 2017, our short term landbank stood at c.75k plots (2016: c.76k plots). The strategic landbank has expanded further to c.117k plots (2016: c.108k plots), even after the successful conversion of c.8k plots from the strategic land pipeline into the short term landbank (2016: c.10k) in the year.

Spain current trading

The Spanish market remained strong in 2017. We completed 301 homes in 2017 (2016: 304) at an average selling price of €352k (2016: €358k). The total order book as at 31 December 2017 stood at 329 homes (31 December 2016: 293 homes). We expect to report a significantly improved operating profit* for the Spanish business in 2017 (2016: £20.6 million operating profit*). The business is well positioned for further growth in 2018.

Group financial position

We ended the year in a robust position with net cash of c.£512 million (31 December 2016: £365 million net cash), after the payment of £450 million of dividends to shareholders in 2017 (2016: £356 million).

We have now secured agreements with 90% of freeholders to enable our customers with a ten-year doubling ground rent lease to convert to an RPI-based structure, should they elect to participate in our assistance scheme. We continue to make good progress towards securing agreements with the other freeholders. Our estimate on the total cost remains in line with prior commentary.

Outlook

We will report FY 2017 results in line with our expectations, and we expect to achieve further growth and performance improvement in 2018. For FY 2017 the Group will deliver an improved operating profit* margin of c.21.2% (2016: 20.8%) and a return on net operating assets** of over 32% (2016: 30.7%). We will pay a total dividend in FY 2018 of c.£500 million, subject to shareholder approvals, and reiterate our intention to make further material capital returns in 2019 and beyond, with details to be provided at our Strategy Day scheduled for H1 2018.

We start this year in a strong financial and operational position with significant embedded value in our short term landbank and strategic pipeline. Whilst we are aware of potential political and economic risks, we expect to demonstrate further progress in 2018 against our medium term financial targets, whilst also driving further operational improvements where we can add value, including customer service and product quality.


* Operating profit is defined as profit on ordinary activities before net finance costs, exceptional items and tax, after share of results of joint ventures.

** Return on net operating assets is defined as 12-month operating profit divided by the average of the opening and closing net operating assets, which is defined as net assets less net cash less net tax balances, excluding any accrued dividends.



-Ends-

10 Jan 18 Numis Hold 197.40 - 221.00 Downgrades

10 Jan 18 Shore Capital Hold 197.40 - - Reiterates

10 Jan 18 Peel Hunt Hold 197.40 210.00 210.00 Downgrades

10 Jan 18 Liberum Capital Hold 197.40 200.00 200.00 Reiterates

08 Jan 18 JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 197.40 220.00 220.00 Reiterates

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5872808


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Taylor Wimpey underlying profit up 10.7% on higher home completions
StockMarketWire.com
Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey said its annual profit slipped due to a one-off charge related to leasehold compensation payments. Underlying profit rose, boosted by higher completion rates and selling prices.

Pre-tax profit fell 5.7% to £555.3m, while underlying pre-tax profit rose 10.7% to £812.0m.

The company said it had made a 'good start' to 2018 and was encouraged by the levels of demand coming into the spring selling season.

As at 18 February, the company was around 47% forward sold for private completions for 2018, with a total order book value of £1.97bn, compared to 1.98bn a year earlier.

As previously announced, Taylor Wimpey said it would pay a total dividend in 2018 of around £500 million, subject to shareholder approvals, and intended to pay 'further material capital returns in 2019 and beyond'.

'2017 was another strong year for Taylor Wimpey and we enter 2018 in a good position with positive forward momentum,' chief executive Pete Redfern said.

'We have been encouraged by early trading patterns at the start to the year and despite some wider macroeconomic uncertainty, consumer confidence remains robust and market fundamentals are solid.'

'We enter 2018 with a strong order book and are well positioned to make further progress against our medium term targets and in delivering long term value for shareholders.'



Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

Healthy dividends announced:

Subject to shareholder approval the 2017 final ordinary dividend of c.2.44 pence per share will be paid on 18 May 2018 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 6 April 2018 (2016 final dividend: 2.29 pence per share). In combination with the interim dividend of 2.30 pence per share (2016 interim dividend: 0.53 pence per share) this gives a total ordinary dividend for the year of c.4.74 pence (2016 ordinary dividend: 2.82 pence per share).

In addition, on 14 July 2017, we returned £300.5 million to shareholders by way of a special dividend, equating to 9.2 pence per ordinary share. As previously announced in August 2017 we intend to return c.£340 million to shareholders in July 2018, equating to 10.4 pence per ordinary share, subject to shareholder approval at the AGM. This is proposed to be paid on 13 July 2018 as a cash dividend to all shareholders on the register at close of business on 1 June 2018.

damn capitalist housebuilder cashing in on the poor downtrodden proletariat .... even the kulaks are struggling with house prices at current levels .... no doubt the next neo-marxist gov't will put that to rights (lefts?) with CPO's and more

:0)