HARRYCAT
- 23 Apr 2012 12:04
- 3220 of 5505
Canaccord note today:
"This morning, Gulf Keystone announced Shaikan-4 test results, which achieved an aggregate flow rate of 24,000 bopd over several intervals. Of note is the 14,000 bopd achieved from the Sargelu formation following acidization and retest. Shaikan-4 will now be completed as a producing well tied to the Shaikan-1 and Shaikan-3 Extended Well Test facility.
We currently value Gulf Keystone on the basis of our calculated total NAV of 172p/share using a 15% discount rate and US$90/bbl flat real oil price. We arrive at our 210p/share target price by applying a 22% premium, which accounts for a potential takeout of Shaikan using a 12% discount rate.
Share performance catalyst
Possible sale of Akri Bijeel in the next one to two months, Ber Bahr exploration results in May/June, and a further operations update from Shaikan.
Following the decision not to test portions of the well that appeared to be high quality oil reservoir on the electric logs, and where proven commercial flow rates had been achieved by testing previous wells on the Shaikan block, most of the tests have been conducted in zones which looked marginal on the well logs. Within the total maximum aggregate number, flow rates of about 4,500 bopd have been achieved in a new zone in the Jurassic Upper Sargelu, previously untested, and producible oil has been established in the Cretaceous Chia Gara for the first time, albeit at relatively low rates (130 bopd). Following the conclusion of the Shaikan-4 well testing programme, the well is being completed as a producer and will be tied to the Shaikan-1 and Shaikan-3 Extended Well Test facility.
The Discoverer-4 rig will move to the drilling location of the Sheikh Adi-2 exploration well, north of the Sheikh Adi-1 exploration well, which is expected to spud in June 2012."
Proselenes
- 23 Apr 2012 12:24
- 3221 of 5505
210p target price.......... says it all.
Balerboy
- 23 Apr 2012 16:14
- 3222 of 5505
I'd sooner be in this than BOR and if it goes to 210p will buy a good deal more.,.
halifax
- 23 Apr 2012 16:28
- 3223 of 5505
When are their final results due?
Balerboy
- 23 Apr 2012 16:46
- 3224 of 5505
Reckon it could be June.,.
halifax
- 23 Apr 2012 16:48
- 3225 of 5505
BB why year end was 31st december 2011?
Balerboy
- 23 Apr 2012 16:59
- 3226 of 5505
looked on iii and yes your correct, we've had nothing so far and they list period end 31st June??? so guessing.,.
halifax
- 23 Apr 2012 17:01
- 3227 of 5505
BB so final results should be announced soon with all that oil should be good!
Balerboy
- 23 Apr 2012 17:02
- 3228 of 5505
agree.
cynic
- 23 Apr 2012 17:03
- 3229 of 5505
hey hali old friend, i thought you avoided this one like the plague (aka tlw)!
Balerboy
- 23 Apr 2012 17:10
- 3230 of 5505
behave cynic.,.
halifax
- 23 Apr 2012 17:12
- 3231 of 5505
cynic just interested to see whether this turns out to be a roaring success after all the huge estimates of oil in the ground or will it turn out to be another HAWK?
cynic
- 23 Apr 2012 17:26
- 3232 of 5505
i'm sure not like hawk! ..... how UNproven are the gkp reserves or whatever the correct term is? .... put another way, at what juncture is the amount of recoverable oil deemed to be accurate, although ever more sophisticated technology means that whereas in the good old days, perhaps 30% of a reservoir was deemed recoverable, i suspect that the norm is now 40/45% and climbing
halifax
- 23 Apr 2012 17:44
- 3233 of 5505
cynic fine if you believe the "estimates".
cynic
- 23 Apr 2012 17:45
- 3234 of 5505
that wasn't quite what i asked!
halifax
- 23 Apr 2012 17:48
- 3235 of 5505
cynic your guess is as good as ours the proof of the pudding etc.... remember what happened to SEY.
cynic
- 23 Apr 2012 17:50
- 3236 of 5505
never had or even followed them ..... to rephrase my Q, i'm genuinely trying to establish at what juncture estimates become realisable, with the stages in the middle
halifax
- 23 Apr 2012 17:54
- 3237 of 5505
cynic estimates are only proved after the pumps produce and if they don't the pump and dumpers like PP are long gone.
cynic
- 23 Apr 2012 18:00
- 3238 of 5505
don't buy into that line, and nor do you i think .... before anyone even starts thinking about pumping, they have to have a pretty strong idea of how much will be recoverable and over how many years, based on the available technology of the time
are not reserves proved as far as they can be by an independent report or similar? .... but that is the final bit ..... surely there must also be intermediate stages of varying validity
Balerboy
- 23 Apr 2012 18:02
- 3239 of 5505
called a CPR is it not.,.