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http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=105284&hmpn=1

Rockhopper Roars at Falklands Oil Find

by SubseaIQ|Rockhopper Exploration plc|Monday, March 21, 2011


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As of close yesterday 1m stock on loan (Shorts) for RKH.

100K were closed off on Wednesday but 100K more were put on yesterday to put the level back to 1m of shorts.

DES spudded Ninky well.

RKH 7.5% interest.

Should be news around 20th April.

MasterShanus's interpretation of the 14-10/4 results, will be interesting how accurate it is when more data is released.

http://mastershanusinterps.zxq.net/14104_4interp.htm

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Edison 22nd March update (easy to download link).

http://www.mediafire.com/?n87015xwwq4wphy


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perhaps i've missed something herman, but the only RNS i have come across is just about Des prelim trading results ..... as far as i can see, the only bit of any interest to RKH is as below, and even this is pretty peripheral .....

"The past twelve months have been extremely energetic for Desire Petroleum. We have drilled five wells on prospects and have commissioned 3D seismic over previously uncovered acreage. The geological information gathered from these wells combined with the new seismic data is expected to have a significant impact on the prospect portfolio. It is our belief that the East Flank Play Fairway has a great deal of potential, and it is with this in mind that we are currently drilling the Ninky exploration well."

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Update today on the last well and also Sea Lion. Very good, new P90 is considerably higher.

The next well will have a major impact as 14-10/4 did not target Sea Lion lower, but the next well will and will also flow test Sea Lion Upper and Lower and move more of the mid case into the low case.

Given that much of South (unmapped as yet but ongoing fast track in place) is going to be above the OWC and full to spill I can see the P90 being around 450MMBO by Q3 for Sea Lion, IMO.

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/pdf/14-10_4_further-tech-FINAL.pdf

Rockhopper Exploration plc
(the Company)

14/10-4 Appraisal well further technical update

Rockhopper Exploration plc (AIM: RKH), the North Falkland Basin oil and gas exploration company, is pleased to provide the following technical update on its Sea Lion Discovery after further interpretation of the results of well 14/10-4:

Porosity in 14/10-4 in the range 15%-27%, average 20%

Net to gross within the pay zone of 88%

Dual packer modular formation dynamic tester (MDT) results indicated well had the potential to flow at 2,700 bbls per day, compared to c.2,000 bbls per day seen in 14/10-2

Management interprets new low case area of 22km2 with stock tank oil initially in place (STOIIP) of 516 mmbbls giving 155 mmbbls recoverable at 30% recovery factor

New seismic depth conversion confirms upper fan full to spill, oil water contact within the upper fan package at 2,477m true vertical depth subsea (TVDSS)

Analysis of MDT results and logging indicates 14/10-2 and 14/10-4 are in communication.

New presentation too, link below :

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/pdf/apr_2011_update.pdf

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http://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/?inprogress=1

On to the small caps then
and some more good news
from the Falklands

Rockhopper Exploration Plc (RKH:LSE): Last: 255.25, up 17.25 (+7.25%), High: 266.25, Low: 245.25, Volume: 6.44m

the Rock
has revised upwards is P90 estimate I think
p90 reserves now of 155m barrels
that's based on a recovery factor of 30%
says the sector watcher
all very good news
and further evidence that they really do have a commercial well
in Sea Lion


A technical update from RKH, which looks pretty positive. The group says that based on the most recent Sea Lion well (14-10/4) it is raising its low case estimates of Oil In Place to 516m barrels - Ryder Scott currently carries 382m barrels on a P90 basis. RKH says that assuming a 30% recovery factor, this indicates recoverable reserves of 155m barrels. Previously the group was carrying 57m barrels on a P90 basis, although this was based on a recovery factor of only 15%.

The group also says that the result of an MDT flow-test indicated the well had the potential to flow at 2,700 b/d, compared to 2,000 b/d in 14/10-2. Not sure today's news really fundamentally changes anything, it's more a case of RKH becoming more comfortable with the commercial case for Sea Lion. Following the current Desire-operated Ninky-1 well, the rig will return to RKH to drill the next three appraisal wells on Sea Lion, and this should really tie down reserves estimates. Our NAV on RKH is 593p/share compared to a Friday close of 238p/share - ship them in.

and a bit more from
Canaccord

Although the Sea Lion discovery offshore the Falkland Islands requires further appraisal, the latest press release from Rockhopper increases our confidence that it will prove to be commercial. In its low case, the companys updated estimate of the oil in-place at the field is 35% ahead of the last published assessment by independent consultants RPS Energy. Of course, the recovery factor assumed by RPS in its low case in mid-2010 was only half that alluded to by Rockhopper today. However, we note it also used 30% in its best estimate and as much as 40% in its high case.

Key features

In its low case, Rockhopper now believes Sea Lion covers an area of 22km and contains oil in-place of 516 mmbbl. It points out that this would translate into contingent resources of 155 mmbbl if a recovery factor of 30% is assumed.

Valuation
If it contains reserves of 170 mmbbl, we estimate the Sea Lion oil field is worth equivalent of 515p per Rockhopper share when allied to an oil price of US$87.50/barrel flat real and a 12% discount rate. Adding an estimated 78p/share of net cash increases the total to 593p which is our target. We reiterate our BUY rating.

wow
look at that for a price target
593p

IMO, a DES Ninky failure is already in the price. This is why the price is where it is. A lot of people have sold, locking in their gains for tax year end, hoping that 30 days later they can buy back cheaper as Ninky has failed for DES.

However, when everyone sells in advance it leaves nobody left to sell the actual news, so IMO Ninky failure is already in the price of RKH, but Ninky success will see a very large move up for RKH.

Ninky only needs to be 50MMBO recoverable in size to be commercial on the back of Sea Lion.

You will also see that RKH say they are getting much better at working with the seismics and data to pick out sweet spots. Now they have 7.5% of Ninky and will have been part of the prospect selection and confirmation team, so really Ninky, fingers crossed, should hit oil.

With Ninky failure already priced in to RKH, just think of what Ninky success will do.......

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New rig contract news is possible, but not today IMO.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/8426204/Rockhopper-shares-jump-after-raising-Falklands-oil-estimate.html

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The next well, 14-10/5 should be westerly and intersect Sea Lion Main and Sea Lion lower.

All going well there, with good flow tests of Main and Lower fans and the "low case" size should pass the magical 200MMBO at which point only a fool would try to say that this is not commercial.

Late April (pending Ninky success) and late May/June will be exciting times.

All we need early June is the "14-10/5 is in communication with 14-10/4 and 14-10/2" and off we go laughing.

Once the low case is past 200MMBO then you should see more and more funds flood into RKH as the risk is basically eliminated.

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As of Friday close there was 900K of stock on loan (shorts) and most of it placed short below 250p.

They are not very happy today are the poor shorters.

Do you want to be in or out for Ninky results ?

That is the question. Ninky failure is already in the price IMO and many sold RKH in the past weeks expecting Ninky failure.

So, Ninky success means a good solid rise of anything up to 20% and failure should be brushed off the same way Ernest failure was, given the news today UNDERLINES just how significantly undervalued RKH is :)

I have been in all along, never sold any and added plenty more, and I remain in with no plans to sell. Just so much more to come.

Q4 low case of "450MMBO recoverable from 1.5 billion barrels of Oil In Place" IMO and all 100% owned in a territory that has an excellent fiscal regime :)