http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Don't think Fibbonacci is working in this case. We will see tomorrow.

I like the real story, not the BS from shorters. This from yesterday offers the full explanation.

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26884726

Context for the Rockhopper beatdown today:

Disclaimer: This document is general market commentary and does not constitute a research report. This document is prepared by Canaccord Genuitys Institutional Sales for informational purposes only.


I saw Sam Moody CEO of Rockhopper this morning - I think today's move is a great BUYING opportunity.


The Chronological Order of Events

Pre drilling the CPR estimate by RPS was 170m barrels (P50)
The P90 - P10 range is 57m barrels to 670m barrels!
Post drilling all agreed there was more oil than expected so RPS upgrades estimate to 242m barrels
The stock rallies to 500p plus
We upgrade our target price to 641p - our valuation of Sealion (622p) & cash (19p)
Work continues on identifying the first appraisal well using Geo-physical data - designed to be pessimistic to eliminate 9 of the 10 potential sites for this well.
A potential capital raise required a confirmation of the CPR
The only 'new' data was the Geo-physical report - so this was made available to the CP
This is interpreted by the CPR as 'negative' and the estimate reduced to 170m barrels
As the company had that information it has to be released to the market
So today the stock is back 20% to 380p!



What has changed?

Only the CPR estimate!
There is NO new seismic data
There is NO new test data
Nothing has changed with the flow data.
The CPR is estimating the size of a 50km square oil field from the results from one well - this is clearly a near impossible task and has to be approached conservatively.
What happens now?

The results of the Rachel well (7.5% RKH) are due at the end of October.
A seismic testing ship will arrive this December - to be joined by a second ship in early 2011.
Seismic testing will take 3 months with a further 2-3 months of interpretation.
The rig for the appraisal well will arrive at the earliest at the end of January 2011.
Drilling could commence in February 2011
Valuation

On the basis of 170m barrels we value Rockhopper at 545p
This consists of 526p for Sealion Plus 19p of cash
This give 40%+ upside from 380p!
This assumes nothing from Rachel
This assumes no more positive data from the 3+ appraisal wells on Sealion
This assumes nothing from the 5 other prospects RKH has in the region.
Today there has been some disappointing news for Rockhopper - the price is now reflecting ONLY disappointing news - the weight of probabilities is tipping in our favour!

cynic we took our profit long ago, feel sorry for those "ostriches" hanging on in the belief they are right without any tangible proof.

hyleo/hilary - your short may run out of puff ..... i fully accept that charts can be pretty questionable, especially in stocks and times like this, but i'ld hazard that 320 has good reason to be a support, and that was all but touched early today .....

A strong rebound is inevitable.....

i did too hali, though i must surely have given a good lump back (i ouight to check), but took your advice and sold some more, even though not all

Cyners,

Relax. My price target is zero. I'm happy to wait.

hali .... let's put it this way - i'm very significantly ahead 2010/2011, but i rather wish i hadn't done that analysis, as if correct, it shows in sad relief my performance on other stocks!

cynic the six month delay in proving up reserves(or otherwise) gives the directors enough time to arrange their next career moves, rather like that we have seen with HAWK!

and i thought i was the cynic around here!

Just been reading through some DES rns's....they are planning 4 wells back to back.....it will be a long time before RKH get their hands on the rig again....after Rachel....they will move to Jacinta.... and from what I have been reading will target close to a possible one billion barrels....there are two targets in this southern basin....it really is a buy and hold....it is up to the punter to decide..to be in or not and at what price....to me the sp is now reasonable.
RKH could climb as well in the event of a strike....but after this....there is a long wait.....so which one is the best to be in ?....or both.....?
I'm convinced that in the event of a duster (mighty unlucky....10 miles away from sealion )....the sp will drop only to recover before the next spud....but if it does turn out to be a dry well...RKH will drop but might not recover like DES will before next spud as Rockhopper are not down there and came up dry with Ernest.

This afternoon strong support at 340p, could signal that the share price is around the right price Institutions are prepared to put money on the new raising of capital.

I did say a couple days ago that the Institutions wanted more info about the find before agreeing new funds, and that was the reason for the last RNS.

assuredly not without logic, but given that a result from Rachel is due within 2/3 weeks, or even sooner, i am sure the institutions, and possibly RKH too, will want to wait until then

it'll be interesting to see what these look like in the market tomorrow, especially the balance of the order books

Nice to see the bounce back also started at 78.6% Fibonacci in early june

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/3180808/CAMRA-fury-as-chance-to-save-pubs-lost.html

Thats the feeling I got yesterday and why I sold what I had left of DES , that the well has failed so far to find something big and they are now on to a sidetrack.

That will now be well 2 of 4 (the sidetrack will count as the 2nd of the back to back 4 drills IMO).

Will be Jacinta after this sidetrack and then perhaps they will pass the rig back to RKH to appraise Sea Lion and save their 4th rig slot until after that. We could therefore see Sea Lion appraisal starting in late Dec 2010/early Jan 2011 and not the presently expected Feb 2011.

I hope they find some oil but it just seems DES are DEStined to be the unlucky ones, just like Shell were before. There has been a hell of a lot of failed North Sea drills and there will be a lot of failed drills in this area as well before they all get a better handle on what, how and why it holds what it holds, and more importantly, where.

So cynic, I think DES will be the centre of attention of shorters. If this "sidetrack" as I mentioned earlier and now the Sun has picked up fails they really are left with just a shit or bust Jactina drill and then one last drill to finally try to find some oil. The flipside is that many II's will have commenced selling already and many more will too, which may make the RKH fund raising easier as there is a lot of cash looking for a new home.

I am just glad I sold a lot earlier in the week in the 160's and dumped the final lot yesterday as I said.

I am sticking with RKH and going to be buying more there - my appetite for those without oil finds is wearing thin now - BOR/FOGL/DES/ARG - no thanks on them 4.

It could well be that the RKH license in the upper North East is saturated and the rest is going to be more like needle in haystack stuff.

one way ticket here this morning, along with DES ..... thank goodness i sold most of my holdings yesterday

35 days drilling and after 15 days.....Poselenes says the well is a failure.

And RF......... ??


Well happy today, I managed to pick up a bundle of RKH at open at 312p levels !! :)

Thats my RKH top up for today done.

So much for support at 340. Back to 35p for this piece of jam-tomorrow trash.

:o)