looks like its hit oil, don't know whats gonna happen, any idea's ???

Now at Bid Price 90p, up 9.5 today on over a million shares traded - I'm quite enjoying this!!

Mickey, I think your 1 is going to get reached very quickly indeed.

BTW, CORRECTION: Alan Hewitt posted this (post #320, end of Feb 2006) regarding the price target:

>> For those of us still sitting tight the Independant runs this today;

NORTHERN PETROLEUM (Panmure Gordon research suggests Northern is worth 145p a share) <<

That should give plenty of upside :o)

ST

I've held for a while now and was tempted to sell but resisted. It's at this point when I get my exit point all wrong. I usually sell far too early so I'm holding. I only hope I've got the balls for it.

LOL
MS

This ended up nearly 16% but what will tomorrow bring, more of the same let's hope so. But I doubt it.

MS

Mickey,

I'm no analyst or anything, but the way I see it is this:

1.) NOP has an excellent near-term project in Holland, one which should ensure that NOP covers its exploration costs in the future.

2.) The portfolio of unexplored assets is huge, the ones in which NOP has a significant %age interest being of course in Italy (The Final Results released in June 2005 give some impressive coverage of this). There are also further possibilities in the Dutch licences. Even the smaller %age interests such as Guyane boast enormous potential, should they prove to bear hydrocarbons in commerical quantities. Thus NOP's number of producing assets should grow over time, and so will cashflow.

3.) Individual oil/gas production facilities should become more profitable over the first few years as production increases.

There is therefore a certain amount of logic in holding for longer rather than selling at the first sign of profits. I quote Peter Lynch: "Selling your growing shares and keeping the ones that are going nowhere is like a gardener pulling up the flowers and watering the weeds."

Of course I don't know what your overall strategy is, but I assume you'd like to make a reasonable profit and then sell to reinvest in something else before the stock spends too much time trading sideways. A good comparison to look at might be JKX; according to my recollection this company has steadily added producing assets to turn from a tiddler into a half-billion pounder. If you had bought 3 years ago, you'd be on a 17-bagger by now! And I dare say it still has further to go. Thus the case for holding, as long as the company continues to make progress with exploration and production, is a good one. Then, when it has reached a certain level, you can start to take profits to re-invest elsewhere (or take the wife on a cruise, buy a Harley, etc, etc!).

The big risk factor with oils is of course the oil price. If that starts to dwindle then the reduction in oil companies' profits will be multiplied.

Assuming, however, that the bulls are correct and we can expect $50 oil to remain for at least the next year or two, then the strategy with any oil co that is succeeding in E&P ought to be to hold - or indeed to add if there seems to be greater growth potential.

Hope this helps. As usual, all IMHO, PDYOR cos' I'm only human too and have made my fair share of errors of judgment!!

PS I'm on at least a 3.5-bagger on the first NOP shares I bought, while the ones I bought last summer on the "Sandhills spike" are now nicely profitable. I occasionally toy with selling, but that's usually when I get out of touch with what the company is actually doing. Right now it's more a case of "I wish I had bought more in late 2005 when everyone else was dumping the stock". But I bought VOG instead, so that's all right :o)

I git some of these morning, not bad rise

We are in good company.
Standard Chartered seem very keen.
Alan

Nice one ST, a good post.

MS

Alan - Indeed.

MS - my pleasure.

And for NOP-fans who haven't seen it already: today's RNS:

>>Northern Petroleum PLC - 40 Million Project Finance Facility
Embargoed for release: 0700 on 14 March 2006 Northern Petroleum Plc ('Northern') Euro40 Million Project Finance Facility
Northern is pleased to announce that Standard Bank Plc ('Standard Bank') hasapproved the terms of a project finance facility of up to Euro40 million withNorthern's subsidiary NP Netherlands B.V ('NPN') secured over the assets ofNPN. Northern is acting as sponsor of the NPN facility and is providing asponsor guarantee. The parties are now moving towards completion of thedetailed facilities documentation.Drawdown is subject to satisfying the terms of the facility, which are normalfor this type of transaction. Up to Euro35 million will be made available to fundthe capital cost (including a contingency for cost overruns) of bringing NPN'ssix onshore oil and gas properties in the Netherlands to production. A furtherEuro5m working capital facility will be made available once NPN has reached firstproduction. The facility will have an initial duration of 60 months from firstdrawdown of funds, with repayments to commence six months after scheduled firstproduction.Upon signature of the facilities documentation, it has been agreed thatStandard Bank will be issued with three million warrants at prices based upontrade weighted prices of Northern's shares at various times within theagreement process. Standard Bank has agreed not to sell the warrants, or theshares issued upon exercise of the warrants, until the earlier of 12 monthsafter first scheduled production or 18 months from first drawing under thefacility.Chris Foss, Finance Director of Northern, stated:'We are delighted that Standard Bank, who have a proven track record inadvising and lending to the natural resources sector, has recognised thepotential of NPN's development project in the Netherlands and has agreed toprovide this facility. We look forward to working with them to bring NPN's oiland gas reserves into production as soon as possible.'Armin Eckermann, Head of Financing - Resource Banking, of Standard Bankcommented:'Looking at the oil, gas and electicity generation economics of theNetherlands, Standard Bank is more than comfortable in financing the projectand is delighted to be engaged with Northern Petroleum Plc which was able toreview and develop an oil, gas and electricity model in such a competitiveNorthern European market environment. This model can become a blueprint for the industry.' <<

Personally I like the fact that they are borrowing rather than issuing new equity: firstly it shows that in the bank's eyes the project is definitely economically viable and secondly it avoids too much dilution of the stock. If all warrants are exercised there will still only be 57 million shs in circulation.

ST

It's getting better by the hour. Might hit a bit of resistance breaking through 1 but if we do break it then 145 here we come. Are you back at work yet?

LOL
MS

Mickey,

I think you need to check today's SP graph - the good news has already happened! NOP hit 103p in early morning trade, and currently is 99.75p to buy. I agree it would be nice to see the price consolidate over 100p. The graph offers some grounds for optimism . . .

Can't believe the number of sales around 8:00 - 9:00 this morning, but I guess a lot of people put in sell orders overnight, taking profits from way back when it was at 34p or so.

Thanks for asking after my health - no, I'm not back at work yet. Have been off since June 2004, but the good news is that I have recently been diagnosed with a cortisol insufficiency and today have started taking steroids that should right the problem quite quickly.

As for work itself, I'm weighing up the possibility of leaving the office to do something else - will keep you posted!!

Consolidation above 100 would be great. Good luck ST, some steroids can cause weight gain but I'm sure you'll have checked that out. Wouldn't it be nice if NOP hit 10 and we could say "Sod the work". Oh we can dream.

LOL
MS

Clearly you have a much bigger position in NOP than I do - LOL. But NOP worth +/- 600 million? Why not, one day?

Currently at 99/101.

The price is coming off a bit now I just hope we don't lose the gains of today.

MS

Off 4p today. Precautiounary profit-taking, at a guess. I notice though that VOG and SBE have both bounced around late morning/midday. Wonder if the day-traders are switching tracks??

EK has sold all his holding.

MS

MS,

Sorry if I'm being thick, but who's EK?

There were a couple of big purchases today, 50,000 and 100,000 - might have entailed a bit of whipping and driving by the MM's to get hold of the necessary stock.

I'm hanging on, anyway! At least until Holland starts producing electricity and they do some successful E&P in Italy.

ST

Simon Cawkwell aka Evil Knievil. A notorious bear raider with a large following. When he buys/sells so do all his followers. He also holds long positions which is what he had with NOP. It is debatable if he along with his followers can influence prices. He posts his diaries on t1ps.com and was responsible for uncovering the Maxwell affaire. His books are well worth a read.

MS

Thanks MS - will look out for the books! Don't know how much EK sold but I'm thinking about the medium to longer term so am definitely not scared of him!!

ST

No don't be. He's made some howlers over the years and he's even questioned himself as to wether he's made the right decision. A very wealthy man and a gambler. He's shorted stocks that I'm in and it's gone against him. On the other hand he shorted Sanctuary from 50p down to 0.5p like wise Regal Petroleum. When he scores it's big time that's why he has such a large following. You're safe with this if you bought early. Those that bought at around 70/80 might well be looking to off load with the hope of buying back cheaper although I can't see it retracting back that far, but who knows.

LOL
MS

Guess what Mickey spot on i bought in June at 15p (75p) after consolidation and sold today at 95p.I wasn`t going to let my profits slip away again but am looking to get back in the future if i get a chance .
Good luck