http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

cheers GF.

Is it time to buy..?

no

what price cynic..?

don't know, but would be more inclined to short still ..... gold has been heading south for a while now and has lost a further $15.00 today to $752

It was 400p last week and now back to 230p incredible movement..

Gold may go $700 but in 2009 I reckon it could double.

Got to wait for forced sellers eg, hedge funds unwinding positions and then we will be back in action.

Do we go for explorers or producers that is the question.

Any here with thoughts on this?.

Well there's CEY (production soon), AVM (production in the far east), and loads of small explorers with their sp's in the pennies !, also LRL (out in China....small explorer with gold sticking out of the ground from what I gather but needs help from a major).

I think that if gold recovers CEY will rocket : 13 million ounces or so in the ground or close to that and production to start soon....getting in at the right time will be the tricky bit.

I am waiting for 200p before buying I'm sure cynic will tell me..I guess 100p is the 2003 low.

200 may be ;marginally early to expect at least a bounce, but not that far out ....

Whats your thoughts now cyners after the rally today?.

gold further up and shorting figs for november in POG just out...

GB0031544546 PETER HAMBR ORD 1P 7117860.10 61081415.35 11.65

11.65% stock on loan.

Would support buyers drive the SP northwards on closing out positions. Looks like TA argument is taking a back seat at the moment.

May go for a short term punt in the morning but wait for 30 mins because spread is ludicrous on this one first thing.

You tempted???.

Gone in long, cautiously.

'The Guru' is away on business for a week, so you are flying solo.
I seem to remember seeing an article yesterday from EK tips which said that although everyone seemed to be long on gold now, EK was still short POG.
EDIT - ADDED:
"Another high figure is the rate of interest charged by the founding shareholders of Peter Hambro Mining (POG) for USD. This is 18% p.a. But it really underlines the very high cost of finance in the FSU and Russia . I have sold Peter Hambro at 340p. I am also told that the claimed cost of mining Hambro's reserves seems ridiculously low at $170 an ounce."

Hi HC,

yep Ive spoken to simon about his short on POG.

Just dont buy his argument as the last results show that POG can extract gold at a big margin even with this high charge adding to cost base. He didnt sound so convincing anyway when I went further into the bull case.

Was really wanting to gauge cyners take on TA on the market.

You short then?.

No. I don't short stocks. Too scary for me!
I have received a big aticle by e-mail on POG which I will post as soon as I know the source, but it concludes in saying that they do not agree with EK's position.

Hi harry,

sounds interesting.

Any chance of sending a PM?.

Article as promised. I cannot credit the source of this, but I will do so as soon as I receive a reply to an e-mail: EDIT:This POG article came from James Faulkener -an associate of Tom Winnifreth
Peter Hambro Mining
Founded in 1994 and listed on AIM in 2002, Peter Hambro Mining is the second largest gold producer in Russia, with attributable production in 2007 of around 297,000 ounces. The shares were one of the most shorted companies on AIM recently, falling to lows of around 200p from highs of around 1,400p earlier in the year, as concerns mounted that it would not be able to refinance its short term debt due to problems in the credit markets and investor sentiment towards Russia. These fears proved unfounded late in November when the company announced the refinancing of $49.25 million of debt with substantial unsecured backing by the companys principal directors along with a loan from a Russian bank. The fact that the directors loans are unsecured is significant, as it precludes the prospect of what is termed a Russian bear hug whereby the management seek full control of the company through becoming the first creditors in the pecking order in the event of a loan default.

Chairman Peter Hambro is a well-respected businessman and the management are confident for the potential to drive production growth over the next two years. The Pokrovsky mine, located in the Amur region in south-eastern Russia, is the cash cow of the group. It is the main producer and cash costs, at around $193 per ounce, are extremely low by industry standards in fact they are among the lowest in the world. There is potential to increase production at Pokrovsky by bringing various satellite deposits into production.

Pioneer, situated just 35 kilometres north-east of Pokrovsky, produced just 3,600 ounces during the first six months of 2008, but is anticipated to reach 72,000 oz by the year end. There is also substantial expansion potential, with 41.7 million tonnes of ore containing a further 1.3 million oz gold in inferred category resources. Both Pioneer and Pokrovsky are supported by excellent infrastructure and are just 40 kilometres away from the Trans-Siberian railway.

Another factor behind the poor share price performance has been the setback at Malomir, where production has been delayed by six months now expected to commence in the first half of 2010 due principally to the late arrival of the SAG mill from the group's supplier. Nevertheless, the firm announced a positive reserves update for the project, with proven plus probable reserves of around 2 million oz gold within a total measured plus indicated resource of 2.5 million oz gold. There is also significant scope for the enlargement of these figures by a further 2.6 million oz in the inferred category resources.

Recent trading and prospects
The company recently issued a relatively upbeat third-quarter update which showed attributable gold production increasing by 32% compared to the same period in 2007 and by 19% year to date, largely due to improvements at Pokrovsky and the commissioning of the new plant at Pioneer. It also confirmed it is on course to meet production targets of 350k-400k oz in 2008.

Although slightly disappointing and possibly another factor behind the poor share price performance recently the decision to delay a planned move to the main market from AIM was understandable given the current state of the equity markets. This issue will no doubt return to the fore when equity markets begin to stabilise.

PHM is in the process of reviewing its exploration and maintenance expenditure for 2009 in order to maximise funds available for expansion and development projects. This looks like precisely the right approach to take, as the firm will be able to capitalise on the (anticipated) higher gold price in 2009 while at the same time please the market by concentrating its resources on improving cash flow.

Recommendation
Crucially, the company now has reserves for the first time, totalling 3.6 million oz. This equates to a valuation of around $100 per oz compared to around $350 per oz for peer Randgold Resources, which looks pretty anomalous given PHMs rock bottom production costs. The firm is targeting production of 1 million oz per annum by 2011 and with the focus now very much on production vis-vis exploration there is no reason to suggest this will not be achieved. Having recently suffered from a strong rouble (costs) and a weak dollar (sales), this trend has now been reversed and currency movements are very much in the firms favour.

For 2009 were looking at pre-tax profits north of $200 million on production of just over half a million ounces, although these forecasts were made on the basis of conservative gold prices which I am not expecting to prevail in 2009. In 2010 production is expected to reach 800k oz and then a million in 2011. Net debt is relatively high at around $278 million, but this should become less of an issue going forward as cashflow improves markedly on the back of rising levels of production and higher gold prices. I would also note some substantial buying of convertible bonds (due 2010) for directors taking advantage of the weakness in the share price in recent months. Peter Hambro Mining remains the cheapest established gold miner in the world so watch this oversold stock soar as the gold price shines in 2009. At 232.5p the company is valued at 188 million. Now if I am right and gold is $1000 oz next year not sub $800 as the analysts expect then that all falls to the bottom line so Hambro's profits zoom ahead by an additional $100 million - in other words the company would be able to clear all its debts and would be left trading on a PE of c1. I know Evil is short. My friends in the industry say that he is wrong. I agree. Buy.

Excelent article Harry much appreciated that you have shared it.

Reckon a few transportations are in order when the POG sp perks up again.

Blimey just seen price of gold taking off on chart above.

Buyers coming in for hambro stock now.