looking at the sp Inchcape appears to have withstood the big fall in sp. down c.50% since Aug07 - the start of the Credit Crunch . . . . .

By comparison look at INCH and PDG (Pendragon) - from abouit 2005/6 they are somewhat similar (ignore noise!) and then at Aug07 the charts change - such that Pendragon is now about 80% down.

Why has Inchcape fared so much better?

They claim they are "independent" - but I can't imagine this means they are not tied to the Manufacturers - otherwise they won't get the best discounts, will they?

So when will INCH suffer similar falls....?

Can't say I'm impressed by Inchcape's website - far too strong on investor relations...which really means no information at all.....where are the Best Car-Deals?

EDIT (12Nov08), some Director-buying boosted this to 78p, but it slipped back on Media News that car sales are dire (and Retail!), so I suppose no-one expect this to improve for another year - 50p someone?
(Last month Dir-Buy was minute - 7k which wouldn't buy a Dir-car....oops!)

Late yesterday after market close -BRITISH BULL - CONFIRMED the shares as a BUY ( short term ).........

Our system posted a BUY CONFIRMED today
Candlestick Analysis
Todays Candlestick Patterns:
White Candlestick

Today a White Candlestick was formed. This represents normal buying pressure.

WHITE CANDLESTICK
Type: Reversal/Continuation
Relevance: Indecision

Definition:
The White Candlestick represents normal buying pressure.

Recognition Criteria:
1. The real body of the pattern is white with normal length.
2. The upper and lower shadows are smaller than the length of the real body.

Explanation:
White Candlestick shows buying pressure. It shows that prices advanced from open to close during the day and buyers were in control.

       

- Trading Statement - and DOING WELL

The cash flow must be very good, as after a debt of 404M is now only 100M, so discounting the 234M
of the R I, there is 70M of cash flow on 2 month, that is a lot of money comin IN

LONDON (Reuters) - Car dealer Inchcape (INCH.L) reported a sharp drop in sales over the last five months, but said trade in Britain had improved after unprecedented falls and that it was starting to benefit from its cost cutting programme.

The British-based firm, which trades in 26 countries, on Wednesday said like-for-like sales for the first five months of 2009 were down 23.8 percent on a constant currency basis.

"Customer demand for new vehicles is still weak but our aftersales business, which represents approximately half of our gross profit, remains strong," the company said in a trading statement ahead of its half-year results on July 29.

"In the second quarter, our pretax profits are currently expected to be significantly ahead of the 20 million pounds reported for the first quarter, but well below the same period last year."

Inchcape said its aggressive cost reduction actions were now delivering significant benefits to mitigate the impact of the continued downturn in the auto market.

The dealer said it continued to outperform the British car industry with like-for-like sales down 21 percent in a market which is down by 27.9 percent and that it was benefiting from a stronger used car market.

The group last month posted a 69 percent drop in first-quarter pretax profit but said trading had improved in Britain and Singapore.

Inchcape shares have plunged 70 percent over the last year amid an unprecedented slump in car sales that led it to axe 2,000 jobs, scrap its dividend, reduce stocks and cut capital spending.

Shares in the group, which bounced back from a low of 5.82 pence this year after it raised 249 million pounds in a deeply discounted rights issue, closed at 16.25 pence on Tuesday, valuing the firm at around 760 million pounds.

Inchcape said its net debt stood at around 100 million pounds at the end of May -- down from 404 million pounds at the end of March 2009 -- reflecting the 234 million pounds proceeds from its rights issue and improved cash flow.

brewin dolphin gone positive

Inchcape Retain Hold price price target 17.5p Neutral, hold

re - Over 4 BILLION shares in issue

I had look at two places, and says 4.6 billion shares on issue

but my calculations say otherwise
Before the right issue of 9 for 1, there was 459.2 Million so after the right issue should be 4.59 billions more or less, but I thought there was a capitalition of 1 share for every 5 almost at the same time, so the total should be divided by 5 giving 920 Millions, or double the amount of before the R I.

Can anyone comment about it?

Today's brokers

Inchcape raised to neutral from overweight at HSBC, target price up 2p at 21p.

Not doing well so far

Car sales fall slows, scrappage helps

LONDON (Reuters) - New car registrations fell 15.7 percent on the year in June, the smallest decline in almost a year, helped by a government scheme to boost car sales, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said on Monday.

SMMT said the moderation was due to the government's scrappage scheme, which gives drivers 2,000 pounds to trade in cars more than 10 years old against a new model.

It said there were 176,264 new car registrations last month, compared with 209,190 in June 2008. June's annual fall compared with a 24.8 percent year-on-year decline in May and was the smallest since July 2008.

Demand from private buyers rose for the first time since November 2007, up 3.9 percent on the year. Small cars remained the most popular buy. "We are now beginning to see the positive impact of the scrappage scheme translate into new vehicle registrations," said SMMT chief executive Paul Everitt.

"SMMT expects the pace of improvement to increase in the coming months, but we can already see the industry making steady progress on the long road to recovery."

19.50 / 19.75p +0.75

Moving higher with the market and now close to the TOP recently

       

Yesterday's BROKERS news

Citigroup has a buy for Inchcape (LSE: INCH.L - news) , raising target to 25p from 20p

21.50 - 21.75p +1.50p

The breakout is happening today

Things are looking good, the BREAKOUT continues and earlier reached 23p

Gets a buy rating from Investor Inteligence today -

Inchcape - Surged through the 200-day MA and the 20p sideways resistance. New long-term relative highs established. Buy.

"

We add a long in Inchcape on its stunning breakout.

" Inchcape will announce its Interim Results on 29th July 2009."
Sp seems to be building in better than expected results. May be a case of 'buy on rumour, sell on fact'?

Business Financial Newswire
"Auto trader Inchcape said it increased share in most markets in the half-year to end-June. However, sales of 2.8bn (2008: 3.3bn), were down 22.9% in constant currency terms and profit before tax fell to 47m from 130.3m the previous year.

Reported earnings per share were 0.7p, compared to 3.5p in 2008.

The group said it showed a significant like for like cost reduction of 13% and a reduction in net debt to 28m, down from 408m at year end.

Inchape reported strong operating cash flow generation of 217m, following net proceeds of 234m from is successful Rights Issue. "

Inchcape upgraded to buy from hold at Panmure Gordon, target price rising to 29p from 25p - 29.07.09
Business Financial Newswire
Inchcape has delivered better than expected first half, says broker. Its recovery strategy has some momentum, particularly in the UK, Australia and Singapore.

Increases forecasts through to 2011E. For 2009E adjusted PBT moves from 67.8m to 85.0m with new EPS of 1.0p, and in 2010E PBT of 75.7m moves to 98.0m with new EPS of 1.3p.

For 2011E, 'where we would expect recovery to really gather momentum', previous PBT of 87.1m moves to 120m."

A lot of Brokers getting behind this one now and 2 new BUYS yesterday...

Inchcape PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

SG Securities
05-08-09 BUY 1.82 2.08

Panmure Gordon
05-08-09 BUY 84.97 1.12 98.04 1.54

Numis Securities Ltd
03-08-09 HOLD 102.60 1.30 112.60 1.50

Arden Partners
03-08-09 ADD 111.00 1.80 115.00 1.60

Nomura Research Institute
31-07-09 BUY 107.40 1.77 114.00 1.64

Charles Stanley
31-07-09 HOLD 95.00 1.30 122.00 1.40 0.20

Investec Securities
28-07-09 HOLD 93.01 1.16 99.01 1.14

Brewin Dolphin Investment Banking
26-06-09 HOLD 85.00 1.10

2009 2010
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 97.08 1.26 113.87 1.54 0.10

1 Month Change 5.80 0.14 11.93 0.21 0.10
3 Month Change 32.76 0.52 33.22 0.62 0.10


GROWTH
2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

Norm. EPS -15.59% -74.70% 22.22%
DPS 4.66% % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS

2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

EBITDA 295.60m 169.72m 171.72m

EBIT 236.20m 146.50m 173.80m

Dividend Yield 9.58% % 0.35%

Dividend Cover 1.84x x 15.40x

PER 5.67x 22.41x 18.34x

PEG -0.36f -0.30f 0.82f

Net Asset Value PS 15.93p 29.00p 27.00p

Cars sales bounce as scrappage kicks in
Date: Thursday 06 Aug 2009

Car sales rose in July for the first time in a year as buyers took advantage of the governments scrappage scheme.

UK car sales rose by 2.4% in July compared with last year, according to the industry trade body the Society of Motor Manufacturers. It is the first rise is sales since April last year.

New car sales totalled 157,149 in July, with roughly 33,000 of those sold through the scrappage scheme. That scheme total is double the amount sold under the scheme in June.

Sales this year are still very depressed even with the boost from the scrappage scheme. Totals are down 22.8% on the same period last year the SSMT said, even though July's sales were 10.4% higher than the SMMT's forecast for the month.

Sales were 10.1% lower than the July average between 1999 and 2008 of 174,879. Registrations to private buyers rose 33.4% in July to 77,911, but fleet purchases were down 18% at 72,014.

The Ford Fiesta remained the best-selling car in July but BMWs Mini seems to be the main beneficiary of the scrappage scheme as its sales trebled in July from this time last year.

"The impact of the scrappage scheme is clear and we are encouraged by the impact it has had, increasing new car registrations for the first time since April 2008," said Paul Everitt, SMMT chief executive.

However, the concern now is what might happen when the money for scheme runs out. New car buyers currently get a 2,000 incentive if they scrap a registered before 31 August 1999 to buy a new car. Half of the money is paid by the government and half by the car industry.

But the SSMT estimates the cash for the scheme could run out in October or early November.

Today is on the TURN from retracement

Turning with the FTSE and at the same time bouncing from the support as Indicators have reached oversold

Moving up nicely today, looks like the uptrend as started again.

Good movement UP today and the MACD is looking good as is ready for Covergence ( blue line crossing up red ) plus almost crossing 0