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http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/broker-views/

FOGL retained as a BUY by Goldman Sachs with target price of 138p for now, pre drilling.

BOR downgraded to neutral from buy.

TOSH!!!!!

Been downgraded from 1.48p to 138p

Looks likely they will sell the company should they strike oil, no messing around, straight sale.

More than likely to BHP.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-22/falkland-oil-delays-drilling-at-loligo-may-sell-shares-in-2012-ceo-says.html

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indeed - see the argies are sabre rattling again ref banning flights to falklands fron the last remaining route there - in this climate i would expect some more reverse next week here

Nice moves upwards.......... 250p by spudding of Loligo I reckon, more if BOR strike oil first in their 2 drills.

BOR market cap 236 million.

FOGL market cap 114 million.


So FOGL (with more recoverable barrels potential) can double in price and still be cheaper than BOR.

:)

that's not a fair comparison as BOR has more cash in bank. However, fogl is even cheaper adding this metric

BOR has c. 123m ($197m)leaves 113m

FOGL 69m ($110m) leaves 45m

so actually 2.5x cheaper IMO,DYOR etc

I use this metric.

If BOR strikes big oil then FOGL will be over 400p before spudding Loligo.

If BOR strikes not so big oil, but oil, FOGL will be over 250p before spudding Loligo.

If BOR strikes no oil then FOGL will be 50p before spudding of Loligo.

Thats what I like about BOR drilling 2 wells before FOGL.

FOGL farm out news due next month or January.

Pretty much at this stage a risk free bet IMO.

Worth remembering the potential upside with BOR and FOGL.



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FOGL have 16 billion barrels of potential in their prospect list. Looking closer at what the BOR drills could mean for FOGL.

Borders and Southern's Darwin prospect and drill, if good, will light up circa 2.78 Billion barrels prospective from same play type leads that FOGL have.

Borders and Southern's Stebbing prospect and drill, if good, will light up circa 1 Billion barrels prospective from the same play type leads that FOGL have.

And if they both fail FOGL still have 12 Billion barrels potential in their own play types - with first drill at Loligo for a mere 4.7 Billion barrels........ ;)




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FOGL are presently funded for 2 drills, but they have to be specific.

They will drill Loligo (Tertiary Channel Play) first, and are funded to follow up with Nimrod (again Tertiary Channel Play).

However, they want to drill Scotia (Mid-Cretaceous Fan Play) but the cost of drilling Scotia is a lot more than Nimrod, and so they need to farm down if they want the second drill to be Scotia. No need to farm down if they drill Nimrod second.

But in reality based on the excellent reservoir sands encountered in the Mid-Cretaceous Fan at Toroa it has made Scotia the number 2 drill target, but FOGL need a dollop of extra cash/farm down to do this.

Therefore the farm out deal will likely include a portion of Scotia and a portion of Loligo IMO.

What FOGL will want to end up with is enough cash / free carry to drill Loligo and then Scotia and then either Nimrod/Vinson or Inflexible/Endeavour IMO.


At the end of the farm out FOGL will likely be in the position to commit to 3 firm drills via their cash/free carry position.

Off to a nice start today :)

Once you look at all the facts after a period of reflection the result of coal at Toroa was not a surprise really. It was shallow and basin edge, and that is how coal is made.

For a quick easy to see "how is coal and how is oil made" - see the link below :

http://www.hk-phy.org/energy/power/source_phy/flash/formation_e.html


Now, looking at the location of Toroa, well, it makes sense.




But Toroa did throw up some exciting news and that was the Springhill sands were ok for reservoir BUT the mid-cretaceous sands were very good quality reservoir sands.

This is good news for the Scotia prospect, which should be drilled after Loligo.

Loligo is a giant with as much potential recoverable oil as say Shaikan for GKP on a P50 basis given recovery rates.

But Scotia is now derisked somewhat in terms of whether the mid-cretaceous sands will be viable for reservoir, it now seems they are excellent for reservoir.




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Should be back at the prior 70p placing level in the coming weeks, before the big move upwards on farm out news and also BOR getting nearer and nearer to spud.

Well...the "Foilkies" are doing well at the mo....

Yes , RKH is zooming up this morning , wouldn't like to be out of those

Good oilies to be in RKH, BOR, FOGL...and perhaps ARG...not sure about DES...

Nice day yesterday for FOGL, up again.

Unsurprisingly ARG is not going to drill, its not a surprise as their targets ended up being small when the 3D seismic revealed all.

Not long before everyone sells RKH and DES and piles into BOR and FOGL.

Going to be exciting times ahead for FOGL.

Up to 4.7 billion recoverable barrels on the first drill.......... life changing potential :)

No oil has been found at all in the SFB apart from a big coal field...pro is a ramper so dont be fooled by him.

Fogl dont even have enough money to drill the second prospect at this time ,they havent even a COS on the prospects they will drill it could be only 10%.very very risky