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New rig contract news is possible, but not today IMO.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/8426204/Rockhopper-shares-jump-after-raising-Falklands-oil-estimate.html

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The next well, 14-10/5 should be westerly and intersect Sea Lion Main and Sea Lion lower.

All going well there, with good flow tests of Main and Lower fans and the "low case" size should pass the magical 200MMBO at which point only a fool would try to say that this is not commercial.

Late April (pending Ninky success) and late May/June will be exciting times.

All we need early June is the "14-10/5 is in communication with 14-10/4 and 14-10/2" and off we go laughing.

Once the low case is past 200MMBO then you should see more and more funds flood into RKH as the risk is basically eliminated.

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As of Friday close there was 900K of stock on loan (shorts) and most of it placed short below 250p.

They are not very happy today are the poor shorters.

Do you want to be in or out for Ninky results ?

That is the question. Ninky failure is already in the price IMO and many sold RKH in the past weeks expecting Ninky failure.

So, Ninky success means a good solid rise of anything up to 20% and failure should be brushed off the same way Ernest failure was, given the news today UNDERLINES just how significantly undervalued RKH is :)

I have been in all along, never sold any and added plenty more, and I remain in with no plans to sell. Just so much more to come.

Q4 low case of "450MMBO recoverable from 1.5 billion barrels of Oil In Place" IMO and all 100% owned in a territory that has an excellent fiscal regime :)

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Lots of buyers at the closing auction today with some big orders that were not filled which bodes well for more rises at open Tuesday.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Rockhopper-shares-rise-16pc-tele-2979111820.html?x=0

......Malcolm Graham-Wood, analyst at VSA Capital, said: "Rockhopper has justified my confidence by increasing its bottom end of the range estimates for Sea Lion.

"I still feel that there is significant upside even from this level and after further appraisal we will see higher numbers again. Quite why people have lost their faith here is difficult to fathom, last year may have been understandable but not now."..........

:)

http://boards.fool.co.uk/rkh-12227944.aspx?sort=whole

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Got to laugh.

BP are to spend 1.5 billion US$ chasing for oil in a place with no infrastructure, where oil would have to be "tankered to market".

I mean, who would be silly enough to invest in companies that go wildcatting in places like that ?

I mean, ok, if they struck oil in the size of 100MMBO recoverable it might make it worthwhile...............

http://www.news.com.au/business/breaking-news/bp-to-search-great-australian-bight-for-oil/story-e6frfkur-1226033774344

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Rockhopper Exploration
276p +38
Questor says AVOID

But companies investing in new frontiers have shareholders queuing to invest in their business and this is especially true with the Falkland Islands oil explorers.

Of course, investing in such projects is a very exciting proposition. Particularly with the chance of getting rich quick if a major discovery is made.

However, the companies exploring in the Falklands would not meet my investment criteria. In fact, you'd probably be better off with a bet on the greyhounds. Looking at the most recent income statements from four of the main players Rockhopper, Borders & Southern, Desire Petroleum and Falkland Oil & Gas they have one thing in common. All of these companies have no real revenues (Desire had some money earned as interest from money in the bank).

Looking for oil and developing a resource once it is found is a very expensive business. If a company has no revenues then there is a significant risk that it will need to raise more money. This increases the prospect of share placings with institutional investors.

From a company management point of view, placings are a good thing because the company gets the money it needs. From an institution's point of view, they are a good thing because the investor gets in at a discount and can also avoid dilution if they are already a shareholder.

But from a private investor's point of view they an absolute disaster. You are locked out of buying shares at a discount and your holding in the company will be diluted down. In simple terms, you will own less of the company than before.

That's why it is very important that you invest in companies that are not only explorers, but have production as well. None of the companies looking for oil in the South Atlantic make the grade on this front. It's all jam tomorrow.

Desire Petroleum, for example, made seven cash calls in twelve years of exploration. This would have seen an original investor see a stake of 10pc diluted to below 4pc. All of this is before considering any ramifications from the fact this the sovereignty of this territory is disputed by Argentina but that's a different matter altogether.

Although the Falkland oil story is exciting, you are more likely to get rich by investing in "boring" companies.

By far the best strategy is a dividend reinvestment strategy. It is likely to boost your wealth more over time than putting your money in high-risk, high-return shares.

A good example is a calculation performed by Barclays some months ago. These figures may be a couple of years out of date, but they make the point pretty well.

The study showed that 100 invested in the UK stock market at the end of the Second World War would have been worth 5,721 at the end of 2008 if dividends were not reinvested back into the market. However, if all dividend payments were reinvested, a 100 investment would have grown to an impressive 92,460.

This is a lower-risk strategy than betting on explorers and is far preferable than any high-octane "get rich quick" strategy. It just takes time.

The Falkland story is endlessly fascinating, but there are more sensible homes for your cash homes which are likely to yield more over time than any risky investment in the Falkland basin.

Despite Rockhopper's increase in its expectations of the amount of recoverable oil at one of its wells in the Falklands, Questor says avoid.

Its the most poor piece of journalism most people have ever seen.

What he says is avoid EVERY oil exploration company, but covers RKH with a final sentence as pathetic as that.

A post over TMF way...

http://boards.fool.co.uk/hi-hed-sentiment-is-key-to-any-stocks-price-12228796.aspx

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Is RAB the one who has been dumping ?

http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/2041042/rab-capital-admits-errors-79-investors-exit-special-sits

The RAB fund that is getting restructured and sold out is the Special Situations and in 2008 it held a good few million RKH, which would have been diluted down since the lock in period by the later placings.

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk/pdf/NotifiableInterest5Sept2007.pdf

So, has it been RAB selling ?



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Shorts now closing off more and more, see image below for stock on loan as of close yesterday.




Looks like they know the selling is winding down, so time for them to stop shorting........

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A borgo rib tickler.....

The Barman has just told me One Legged Pete has acquired a new guitar. Pete has decided to go solo with a new multi-track album.

Otherwise the Barman continues to travel to the Four Floors Bar. He will arrive on Thursday in plenty of time with his date who is a bright girl.


So is that :

RKH have decided to take on a new rig (not the OG) and are going solo, which means the OG demob costs will be split very soon by RKH/DES.

Multi-well deal with new rig. Going solo allows them to later sell slots to DES/ARG for their share of mob/demob costs and time.

Drill bit heading down to the 4 targets in Ninky (who is a bright girl) and expect to be into the first potential pay area, or under the seal, on Thursday.

??? Who knows, not me.

Times today apparently mentions potential PMO interest in Rockhopper.

RKH could do with a cash rich farm in partner, get Sea Lion into production quicker and allow RKH to go exploring more.

So a deal on Sea Lion would make sense, farm it out and let someone else put it into production, whilst you retain a nice lump, and go off exploring for more finds.