http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

This is a buy above 200p

why 200? ..... it's already 234, which from a simple chart point of view is imprtant as it's 200 dma

Ooooops, I meant to say 220p, in case it pulls back a tiny bit.

Never traded this one before looking good chart wise. If interim results were in a months time would not hesitate to be in on the spreads on Monday. But wee bit wary of profit taking on Wednesday. Also I know this is a bit of a no brainer but to increase chances of a winning trade (spread bet) would prefer to wait till 50DMA crosses 200DMA, this is obviously where the big moves have taken place as can be seen on 4 year chart above. Good luck to present holders. Looks to be solid support @ 200p and the other major advantage is that any stock that is not being relentlessly ramped by Pro and grannyboy has to be a winner :O)

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Looking great for 250 by eoy.

stupid boy mitz, 280 - 300 eoy.,.

David L. Phillips to Gulan:Barzani’s Position is Understandable …. The 2005 Constitution is not a Menu from which Maliki can Pick and Choose

10/09/2012 : 09:22:17

David L. Phillips is a visiting scholar at Columbia University\'s Center for the Study of Human Rights. He has worked as a senior adviser to the US Department of State and the United Nations Secretariat. He has held academic positions as a visiting scholar at Harvard University\'s Center for Middle East Studies and as a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna. He has also served as executive director of the Elie Wiesel Foundation for Humanity, deputy director of the Council on Foreign Relations\' Center for Preventive Action, director of the European Centre for Common Ground, project director at the International Peace Research Institute of Oslo, and president of the Congressional Human Rights Foundation. We contacted the Professor Phillips to discuss the current situations in Iraq and the area. And the Professor Phillips replied to our questions in an exclusive interview to Gulan Magazine as the following:

Q: Recently a US senior delegation has paid a visit to Kurdistan region, which is a sign that US wants to care about Kurdistan region and the relations between both are at a higher level. How do you see the current US policy regarding Kurdistan region?

A: The Obama administration sees Iraqi Kurdistan becoming an economic powerhouse and energy hub. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) estimates 45 billion barrels of oil reserves in Iraqi Kurdistan. There is also great potential to develop natural gas fields, which are essential to the economic viability of the NABUCCO pipeline, which runs through Turkey. Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade Frank Lavin recently visited the Kurdistan region to launch “Iraqi Business Gateways,” an initiative for promoting private investment in Iraq. Deputy Under-Secretary of Defense for Business Transformation Paul Brinkley came with more than 50 U.S. officials and business leaders. In addition to agriculture, tourism, and construction opportunities, Kurdistan can also become a portal for expanding U.S. business in other parts of Iraq.

Q: The relations between Kurdistan region and Baghdad are not in good situation. Prime Minister Maliki is not ready to approve the rights of the Kurds which have been drafted within the constitution so that Kurdistan region can follow them as a federal region. He is not ready to respect the constitution. How is it possible to make Maliki to comply with the constitution?

A: Prime Minister Maliki has consistently shown a blatant disregard for the rule of law and constitutional power-sharing arrangements in Iraq. He calls for majoritarian rule, a code word for consolidating power at the expense of other Iraqis. Maliki uses the ministries of defense, interior and national security to crackdown on dissent. He has arrested political rivals, targeting Sunnis such as Saleh al-Mutlak and Tareq al-Hashemi. In addition, Maliki has heightened tensions over internal boundaries and called for the repeal of Article 140, which pledges a referendum on Kirkuk’s status. Iraq’s problem has always been the centralization of power. Maliki is continuing this trend, alarming U.S. officials with his dictatorial ways.

Q: Another difference between Kurdistan region and Baghdad is that Barzani supports the Syrian people and Maliki is willing to see Assad remain in power. Why Maliki is supporting Assad to remain in power?

A: Maliki acts in Tehran’s interest and serves as its proxy in the region. Tehran backed Maliki’s bid for a second term, and provides essential support keeping him in power. Baghdad has been allowing Iran to use its airspace to resupply Syria’s armed forces. Iraqis suffered under the tyranny of Saddam Hussein and have a natural sympathy for Syrians who struggle under authoritarian rule in Syria, and fear attacks using chemical weapons. Maliki’s support for Assad has also exacerbated tensions between Shia and Sunnis in Iraq.

Q: You know the position of Barzani who insists on implementing the Iraqi constitution and has said that \"If the constitution cannot be implemented, then we can\'t live in Iraq which violates the constitution and is not democratic\". To what extend US understands the position of Barzani?

A: Barzani’s position is understandable. The 2005 constitution was not an interim measure. It is not a menu from which Maliki can pick and choose. The constitution was the product of difficult negotiations and ratified by an overwhelming majority of Iraqis. It represents a compromise designed to preserve Iraq as a democratic, federal republic. Maliki’s abuse of the constitution raises questions about his continued commitment to preserving Iraq within in its current frontiers. If Iraq falls apart, no one can blame the Kurds.

Q: Everyone is expecting big change in the area following the downfall of Assad\'s regime. After the fall of Assad\'s regime, what changes will occur and to what extent will the Kurds benefit from them?
A: Assad’s downfall may not be imminent. The crisis could drag on. Syria might look a lot like Bosnia in the early 1990s. The central government may continue to lose control of territories to local militias. Local militias would take control of Syria’s cities and towns. In this event, Syria’s Kurdish region may be an island of stability. The West should reach out Syria’s Kurds, bridging gaps between different factions and parties. U.S. experts can assist Syria’s Kurds to embrace democratic principles and decentralization. The United States has an interest working with the KRG to foster a Kurdish platform in Syria, which is secular and rejects the use of violence to achieve political aims.

Q: Turkey is playing an essential role in the area and in the Arab spring. The relations between Turkey and Kurdistan region is in very good position right now. To what extend Turkey is important for Kurdistan region in the current time?

A: Relations between Turkey and the KRG have come a long way. Opening a consulate in Erbil was a big step. Better relations have been consolidated by trade and investment, as well as security cooperation. Iraqi Kurdistan is a big export market for Turkish consumer goods. Turkish construction companies have benefitted from the booming business in the Kurdistan region. The new airport in Erbil was built by the Turkish firm Makyol. Last year, Turkey did more than $7 billion worth of business in Iraq; more than half took place in the Kurdish provinces of Erbil, Sulaimani and Dohuk. It was just three years ago that Ankara vilified Masoud Barzani and, accusing the KRG of harboring the PKK, threatened a large scale invasion. Now Ankara and the KRG are involved in a broad range of security cooperation, including intelligence sharing.

http://www.gulan-media.com/english/t_detail.php?section=21&id=71

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201209120700070390M

As part of the transition phase, the Company will soon be putting in place two early production facilities, which will enable us to produce up to 40,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") by mid-2013 and contribute to the first large-scale production target of 150,000 bopd by 2015.

Sheikh Adi-2 was drilled to a measured depth 2,754 metres where a 7 inch liner has been set. As a consequence of good preliminary results from the logs and cores, the Company plans to conduct a well testing programme across 7 target zones.

"Gulf Keystone continues to have a strong balance sheet, with cash and cash equivalents totalling $130.4 million as at 30 June 2012, and the appraisal programme being funded through existing resources and oil sales revenues.

The Group has a number of alternative financing options to enable it to commence development and is currently in active discussions with debt providers."

From Iraq oil report, I only get headlines now.

Kurdistan's contractors have escaped serious consequences for defying Baghdad's claims of oil sector supremacy – but central government leaders are preparing to follow through on their threats.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/53002/gulf-keystone-petroleum-aims-main-market-listing?

Investec downgrades GKP from buy to hold TP unchanged at 229p?

More detail on the Investec note:
"The stock has risen sharply in recent months and is now trading close to our SoTP NAV of 229p/sh. With the appraisal phase of Shaikan officially over, we believe it is time to take profits as the project enters the development stage. Shaikan is a highly fractured carbonate and requires significant capex outlay and technical expertise to understand and unlock the production potential.
*We downgrade to a Hold, TP of 229p/sh unchanged.
Submission of FDP for Shaikan expected by Jan 2013. Estimates for Shaikan now stand at Pmean STOIIP of 13.7 bnb (P90 12.4 bnb to P10 15 bnb).
*Half Yearly report. There is no really new news in today’s 1H12 results. Gulf Keystone has reported a net loss of $31m and cash of $137m. Shaikan facilities remain on track. Exploration and appraisal activity continues across Sheikh Adi, Akri-Bijeel and Ber Bahr.
*Downgrade to Hold and maintain our 229p TP. Our Shaikan valuation is based on a 3.1 bnb recoverable or a 23% recovery factor based on the Pmean STOIIP of 13.7 bnb, a conservative recovery estimate given the relatively early stage of testing and uncertainty in reservoir performance from the highly fractured carbonate.
* Looking ahead, The Shaikan FDP is expected to be submitted by Jan 2013 and construction of early production facilities remains on track, with PF-1 expected to be completed by year-end and PF-2 by end of 1Q13 giving production capacity of 40,000 b/d. At Akri –Bijeel, exploration and appraisal wells Bijell-3, Bakrman-1 and Gulak-1 are currently being drilled and the operator plans to drill three additional appraisal wells (Bijell-2, Qalati-1 and Qandagul-1) in 2012-2013."

was thinking of buying more on this dip, but offer book looks a bit heavy so have just stayed put

Worth a speculative punt long @ 216.0

Kurdistan is likely to adopt the proposed law to the Committee on Energy Date: Thursday, 09/13/2012 08:13 am Yesterday at 4:32 pm


Kurdistan is likely to adopt the proposed law to the Committee on Energy

Date: Thursday, 09/13/2012 08:13 am

 Baghdad / Mohammad Sabah
decided the Presidency of the Council of Representatives to form a small committee to review the draft law of oil for 2007 as well as the government project which was sent to Parliament in late 20011 and the proposal submitted by the parliamentary energy commission and choose one of them.


At the same time it was likely the Kurdistan Alliance adopt the proposed law presented by the Commission on oil and energy into law a new oil and energy, adding that in line with the articles (111 and 112) of the Iraqi Constitution, saying that the draft Act 2007 where irregularities explicit the Iraqi constitution.
has accused the Liberal bloc parliamentary some quarters Political absence of any desire to have the legislation the law of oil and energy, pointing out that the intention of these actors is to keep the current political crisis without putting solutions.
Speaking with "long" The member of the Commission on oil and energy parliamentary Qassim Mohammed "that the presidency of the parliament decided to form a committee Mini includes oil minister in the federal government Abdul Karim defect and his counterpart in the government of the region drastically and representatives of all the political blocs, as well as one of the members of the Presidency of the Parliament for review or consideration of the draft law of oil in 2007 and the government project and a proposal for the Energy Commission, explaining that the Joint Committee will be held first meeting next Tuesday. "
and "The differences of political blocs is that some of them supported the draft in 2007 and the other part with the government project sent in late 20,011 and third section supports the proposal for the Oil and Energy Committee which was accepted by the Presidency of the parliament and win recipe project After reading (23) article of materials inside the House of Representatives. "
between Muhammad Kurdistan Alliance MP "that there fundamental differences between the political blocs on some items the draft law of oil and energy in 2007 and the government project, where confirm in some
موادهما to cancel all oil contracts in licensing rounds concluded by the Governments of Baghdad and Erbil earlier, and second how to form the Federal Council where he sees the government project that this council subordinate to the prime minister while demanding some blocks that is independent, while the third is not to give the provinces and territories oil producing any role. "
he added "The project for the Oil and Energy Committee is the closest to the legislation of everyone because it is identical and consistent with the constitutional articles, pointing out that the draft in 2007 where constitutional violations explicit articles (111 and 112) so if approved Vsenqd by the Federal Court." In turn, MP Furat al-Shara , about the existence of rigidity by some political blocs in their views, pointing out that the enactment of the oil and energy will ease the problems the current political.
Shara said MP Block citizen parliamentary "long" The mission of the mini-committee set up by the Presidency of the parliament to pass a law on oil and energy through the convergence of views in the points at issue politically and then execute legal points. "

and noted that "the qualifications and abilities and clear to the ability of this committee to submit a draft accepted by everyone, indicating a willingness of all parties and factions to overcome this stage despite the presence of rigidity in the consensus that has brought us to delay this law. "
and "that the adoption of this law will ease the stress of controversy among political blocs since 2006 and so far that caused Amtaadat cramps between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region and some provincial councils as well as the institutions vital oil, pointing out that the legislation This law will be organized entry of foreign companies to invest oil larger and wider between the federal government and the provinces and territories. "

accused deputy Liberal bloc some political parties in the absence of serious has in the enactment of the oil and energy and make it legally politically in order to keep the problems as they are on it.

Awad said Awadi "The enactment of the oil and energy of the most important factors that help in stabilizing Iraq politically and economically when there is agreement on this law is passed in the House of Representatives and voting on it, saying that the importance of this law lies beyond the law of the Federal Court because of its positive role in all stages" .
called al-Awadi, a member of the Commission on oil and energy parliamentary to "be there bush vocational and technical for this law and get away from political differences, accusing some political blocs in making this law legally politically in order to keep the differences as is it today."

"The enactment of this Act protect Iraq's oil wealth of the companies that started to enter untapped twice the previous laws, alluding to the inability of Iraq accounting of these companies in the process of extractive oil away from modern technology and even exploratory them. "

and "that the task of the mini-committee is to consider a draft law in 2007 and the government project and see on the observations of the Kurdistan region and producing provinces and the federal government because they are concerned Okthers than others. "

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