WANdisco a "rare strategic asset"
By Julie Fisher | Tue, 15th October 2013 - 12:15
WANdisco share price
Shares in WANdisco (WAND) rose by 1.4% on Tuesday as the software solutions provider made progress towards becoming the leading solution for high-availability open-source software technology Hadoop.
In the three months to 30 September 2013, WANdisco more than doubled its total bookings compared with the equivalent period of 2012, increasing application lifestyle management bookings 115% to $4.3 million (£2.7 million) and adding $54,000 in Big Data bookings.
This compared with no Big Data bookings in the third quarter of 2012, showing the company has made an effort to establish a presence in the market this year.
It secured its first Chinese client, online advertising agency Miaozhen in the last three months and announced a strategic partnership with database technology distributor Hortonworks on 26 September.
Hortonworks is one of the two top providers of enterprise Hadoop platforms and support.
"WANdisco's decision to sharpen its big data focus on becoming the leading solution for high-availability Hadoop implementations makes clear strategic sense," said Edison Investment Research analyst Dan Ridsdale.
"It leverages the company's core IP and turns established players in the Hadoop ecosystem from being potential competitors into potential partners."
WANdisco executive chairman David Richards said the partnership with Hortonworks was "an important milestone" and he was "confident" in his outlook for the year.
Analyst view
"WANdisco is a rare strategic asset offering investors exposure to an IP-based business, not just using or analysing big data, but shaping the way it is delivered," said Ridsdale.
"With a 2014 enterprise value to sales ratio of 28 times, exceptional growth and margin expansion is clearly being priced in.
"However, prospects for achieving this have taken a significant step forward with the Hortonworks partnership and more similar agreements would further strengthen growth prospects," he added.
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WANdisco has a big role to play
WANdisco looks uniquely positioned to address the resilience bottleneck. Through our research with Hadoop end-users and ecosystem peers, we have yet to come across any other company claiming to offer immediate failover or 100% (effectively 99.999%) uptime, enabled by its proprietary active:active replication technology. Commercial progress year to date solidifies this view. The first end-customer (“a tier one telco”) was signed in April, an OEM partnership with leading wireless infrastructure provider, NSN, was announced in August, while the partnership with Hortonworks represents the biggest breakthrough yet.
Partnerships with other important players in the Hadoop ecosystem are clearly being targeted. Other key Hadoop distribution suppliers include Cloudera, which competes more or less directly with Hortonworks with an open-source offering, plus a number of players with hybrid/open-source/proprietary offerings, including MapR, Intel (which also has a partnership with SAP), EMC, with its Pivotal offering and IBM.
However, with successful execution, the business has the potential to scale many times over. We feel these prospects have taken a step forward with the Hortonworks partnership and agreements would further strengthen growth prospects. One also needs to bear in mind that it is a rare strategic asset, offering investors exposure an IP-based business that is not just using or analysing big data, but shaping the way it is delivered. Its credentials as a takeover target are strong and
Potential to scale very rapidly
Looking longer term, we believe the move toward a more horizontal, partner-based strategy and investment in opening up indirect channels will enable WANdisco to scale very significantly. Market analyst Wikibon estimates that the market for Hadoop/NoSQL software and services was worth $542m in 2012 as measured by vendor revenue. Over the next five years, Wikibon forecasts this market will grow at a 45% compound average growth rate to $3.5bn. CA, the Fortune 500 software company, estimates that US companies lose $26.5bn annually from avoidable IT downtime. It also estimates that the average North American business loses $150,000 per year as a result of downtime, whereas the average European company lost $350,000, primarily because the duration of outages was longer. In a 2012 survey by Oracle of its Independent Oracle Users Group, 52% estimated that downtime had cost their company over $500k over the past three years. This figure rose to 61% for correspondents overseeing “Large-Volume Data’ sites of which 16% reported costs of over $1m.
High-margin potential
While we forecast losses in the near term, strong sales traction should translate into robust margin expansion in the longer term. Infrastructure software companies such as Citrix, VMware and BMC, which share similar business models, but have gained substantially more scale, can generate operating margins in the high 20s, low 30s.
http://www.directorstalk.com/edison/WANDisco151013update.pdf