Any experts out there with a view to todays RNS on Algerian gas find ?
Looks good to me but sp is down
Thanks in advance nr

Taken from Mirabaud report of 12 May 2009. Link shown above:

Valuation: BUY recommendation; 15p price target
We have calculated a risked core NAV of 13.8p per share based on a discounted cash
flow analysis of the groups core assets in Algeria, including the Ain Tsila ridge, using
a 10% discount rate and a long term Brent oil price of US$75/bbl flat nominal.
Despite being risked conservatively (at 20-40%), our core NAV offers 66% upside,
and on an unrisked basis is four times the current share price. As such, we believe
that Petroceltics shares represent excellent value at these levels, moving into a
period of active drilling, which could substantially de-risk our core valuation.

I like the mention of "....our core NAV offers 66% upside and on an unrisked basis is four times the current share price...." Just wonder whether the latter is at all possible?

Grevis,if Isarene comes close to seismics then it is possible imho but best to wait for results before popping the old DP!

What's DP, deadly poison?

GR,a potion of pleasure called Dom Perignon!! Mine is on ice for results of drill 1,hopefully mid June.

relative to Cristal, yes

sp climbing again after mms "tree shake", await spud announcement.

All we're waiting for is the RNS to get this show on the road.

Couple of nice buys have just come through.

Just topped up again looking good for next week.

Well done halifax. I have done the same. I would hate to be left out in the cold at the turning point in PCI's history.

Closed at mid price of 11.25p. Won't be long before we break above 12p.

Are we above the 12p yet ?

just joking... it's looking good !

From another BB and from a chap who seems well connected and has so far been pretty accurate with his information.:

"Just had confirmation that they are starting to drill early Sunday morning. Congratulations to all holders.

Regards

Mulligan"

starting to drill is akin to pulling the lever on a one-armed bandit ..... not quite fair i know, but it's a long way from hitting the jackpot

7 wells to drill, it is quite possible that the first one could be a duster, and one or two others as well....but with 7 or more there must be a big chance of them hitting something so : on spudding : a sp rise...if they encounter gas or oil : a substantial rise, but if the first well is a flop this will tank followed by recovery for the second spud....patience is needed for this one....!.

I agree with you rf. I therefore cashed in yesterday the shares I bought at 5.5p & am going to let the 7p & 8p ones ride. A duster is very likely imo along the way & will be easy to buy cheaper then.

Yes, need to keep a sense of realism here... I've been in quite a few promising shares only to see them dive/ disappear due to dusters ! hopefully it'll be different with PCI !

Point taken, there is always a need to be realistic. But, people who buy this type of share are not buying into established oil majors; they are looking for something much more exciting and indeed speculative. PCI has managed to extract a vast amount of money from Iberdrola and many, yet to be announced institutions for their forthcoming exploration. They are drilling into areas with known discoveries of gas that were ignored in the past when oil had been their goal. Iberdrola wants that gas for the pipeline with which they are involved. They know where the deposits are and are using new and proven technology to identify the most promising targets. I think we are in with a good chance here but would caution that with all exploration companies we are gambling and the rewards are uncertain, but it's no good crying after the event and saying "if only I'd taken a chance!"

As a poster on another BB said this morning:

"A few might be tempted to sell if the share price moves up to 12-13p on Monday, but I think that would be a serious mistake. With BPs success in the neighbouring fields, there is a better than even chance that PCI will realise the enormous potential which their plot offers. Patience will pay handsomely here imo."

Another member posted this interesting link:

http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=PCI.LS

exciting does not preclude taking prudent profits ....... i have actually cashed in 1/3 of my holding and may sell a further 1/2 of the remainder ...... if i sell early, so what, but there is nothing as galling as seeing a fat profit turning into a fat loss