Just a quick go over some of this years events.
Italy - Po Valley.
Nobody was saying that success at Gazzatta-1 would add 30p, the comment was that if Gazzatta is a success, the SP for AST will likely be over 20p by year end. Gazzatta is just one of 6 major leads in the license that Ascent hold. In total in the license area (Cento Area 3 leads + Bastiglia Area 3 leads) is thought to be leads with potential for 1 Tcf of gas. Success at Gazzatta-1 will also firm up the chances of a few more hundred Bcf. I would see no reason why following Gazzatta-1 success that the whole company should not be valued at less than 20p, taking everything in. The 200m figure NPV from Otto is Australian dollars, 200m A$, and circa 94m GBP (Otto presentation link
http://www.ottoenergy.com/media/Otto%20Energy%20Investor%20Presentation_17%20Dec%2007--.pdf )
Gazzata is "most likely" 130Bcf but with potential upside to 386Bcf
Don't forget, the potential of the Po Valley license is not just 1 drill 130 Bcf Gazzata, its up to 1 Tcf of gas, prime acerage Italy. Second drill, funded by Otto again 100% all being well, will be in early 2009.
The old Envoi document link is here
http://www.envoi.co.uk/P136Ascent-PoValleySyn.pdf
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Peneszlek - Hungary.
The Dual Ex presentation (
http://www.dualexen.com/documents/presentations/DXE-2008-04-28.pdf ) makes things easy to work out. They utilise their net figure of 1.875 mmcfd as generating revenues of 400,000 US$ a month = 213,333 US$ per 1mmcfd)
So......as AST have 45.23% after divestment
Initial link up will be just PEN-104 - circa 3.4mmscfd which is net to Ascent of 1.54mmcfd = 328,532 US$ a month revenue (annualised = 1.97m/year)
Final link up later in 2008 will include PEN-9 and PEN-12 - output to be 5mmscfd which is net to Ascent of 2.261 mmcfd = 482,452 US$ a month revenue (annualised = 2.89m/year)
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By early summer, PEN-104 should be producing. By late summer the field should be producing with PEN-9 and PEN-12 added. Therefore, by late summer Ascent has a producing field in Hungary generating revenues of near 3m a year. There is considerable potential to upgrade this with further wells and it should not be unexpected that by end 2009 this is producing circa 6m a year in revenues net to Ascent.
Success at Gazzatta-1 would be very welcome news, and would be followed by a second drill fully paid for by Otto to test the "most likely" 116Bcf Rubiera prospect.
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Talking of Hungary, shall we mention Bajsca......as permitting has been approved now.
Bajsca -
The initial reason that Ascent was listed on the market, Bajsca was a major hope that lots and lots of gas could be extracted by using new drilling and completion techniques on this old Hungarian gas field, and so, it could be rehabilitated, and as the production permits and infrastructure is there already, there is near instant cash flow on success.
So, what is Bajsca (part of Zala) ?
Immediate,quite simply, 1 Tcf of gas in total, so thats 380Bcf net to Ascent, of gas, in the ground, that will put onto immediate production on any success. If you take the total potential of Zala (Bajsca and potential Project B), the potential worth to Ascent is circa 2 billion Euro's end of the day.
So, lets hope the first two horizontal completions at Bajsca is a success, as this could dramatically increase the cash flow for Ascent, from the expected circa 3m a year from the Pen field in Hungary, to anything up to near 10m a year from a combination of Pen and Zala by end 2008 on an annualised basis, with tonnes of upside on both fields for 2009.
And then of course there is Switzerland, Netherlands (we should be due news soon on the divestment of the Netherlands offshore assets to Tullow, which will further add to the cash pile), Slovenia, Snozzle, Italy Frosinone (Anagni is just part of that), Italy Strangologalli, Spain- Rocamundo, even Gabon and the fact they have a share of a drilling company now.
As you'll notice drilling rig companies and oil services companies valuations are going crazy, as demand far outweighs supply. So its lucky, imv, that Ascent got into this drilling rig company when they did, as that investment alone has likely gone up in value by some margin already, and will continue to rise..........and thats ignoring the main reason it was taken, and that is quick, cheap and priority access to rigs whilst others suffer with long waiting times.
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The SP is suffering, as a major holder liquidates their holding for cash, this has left Ascent with an overhang, very oversold and grossly undervalued. The SP will continue to suffer until this seller is clear, make no mistake there, however, the seller has so far refused to sell below 5p, and so as it stands now, circa 5p appears to be the bottom.