http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

ah, so you think perhaps a little truth in my comment then?

; )

marni--your response highlights reasons not to hold long term, you have obviously missed the point, and the fact that short term there are excellent gains to be had. Like you say, enough of this.

Back to RKH, not in myself, ( have been) Looking quite good but fruition is a long way off imo, albeit sp strength should be ahead of the oil.
Good Luck All
2517

Falklands oil dream taking flight
Created:
16 June 2009
Written by:
Martin Li Investors Chronicle

The announcement by Rockhopper Exploration of the first Falklands hydrocarbon discovery has re-ignited interest in the South Atlantic - a little-explored frontier region that could hold more barrels of oil than the North Sea.

True, this isn't a 'new' discovery - it's a reinterpretation of a well drilled by Shell over ten years ago, and Rockhopper still faces significant challenges in commercialising this discovery. But that shouldn't distract from the fact that the four Aim-traded Falklands explorers - the others are Falkland Oil & Gas, Desire Petroleum and Borders & Southern - have made significant progress developing their projects over the past few months. First drilling now looks possible within a year, although a consortium of oil majors, including BP, might get the drillbit into action even sooner in adjacent international waters.

The Falklands area splits into two separate provinces, the North basin and South basin, each of which has very different characteristics. In the North basin, where Desire and Rockhopper are active (together with private company Arcadia), the water is relatively shallow at 100-600m, the targets are large (150-500m barrels of oil) and drilling conditions relatively benign - similar to those in the North Sea.
In the South basin, where Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL) and Borders & Southern are active, the water is deeper at 500-1,200m, although still not ultra-deep by industry standards. The targets in the south are an order of magnitude larger than their northern counterparts (1,000-3,000m barrels of oil), but drilling conditions are more challenging - similar to those in the 'Atlantic margin' west of Shetlands.
Oil majors Shell, Amerada Hess and Lasmo drilled six wells in the North basin in 1998, of which five had oil shows and one also had gas shows. Although none of the wells confirmed a commercial discovery, they demonstrated that an active hydrocarbon system exists in the area. Furthermore, the majors confirmed the existence of the four fundamental requirements of any oil or gas discovery - source rock, trap, seal and reservoir - although these were not found together. The British Geological Survey adds further evidence to the highly oil-prone nature of the Falklands source rock, estimating that the North basin alone contains some 60bn barrels of oil. Although much of this will have seeped away over time, this still leaves sizeable reservoirs to be tapped.

The majors relinquished their licences in 1999 as the prevailing $10 (6) per barrel oil price left exploration of the Falklands uncommercial, due to the difficulty of developing any finds in such a remote location. Now, the licences are in the hands of smaller players.
No wells have yet been drilled in the South basin, although drilling to the west in the Malvinas basin and scientific drilling to the east have provided useful data on the potential of the region. Indeed, several oil and gas discoveries have been made in the Malvinas basin, although none has yet been developed. Further west, the Magellanes basin is one of the most prolific in South America, containing numerous fields in production, both onshore and offshore in Argentina and Chile.
Rockhopper's announcement was based on evaluation of three-dimensional seismic data, which allowed consultants RPS Energy to reclassify the newly-named Johnson structure as a gas discovery with mean contingent resources of 3.4 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas and a high estimate of 7.9tcf. 'Contingent' in this context indicates that the discovery is not yet considered commercial, hence Rockhopper's decision to delay production. There is no nearby market for gas and transporting it to the market by pipe or in liquid form requires considerable capital investment.
All four explorers have completed their reviews of seismic data and identified drill targets. FOGL has farmed out an operating interest to resources giant, BHP Billiton. Desire, meanwhile, has farmed out an interest to Arcadia, which will drill two wells, and Desire will drill an additional two wells on its own account.

FAVOURITES...

Falkland Oil & Gas controls a large acreage in the South basin, covering diverse geological structures. The farming out of a controlling interest to BHP Billiton adds credibility to the acreage, and funding, although the undrilled South basin remains high risk ahead of anyone actually sinking a drillbit.

Desire Petroleum held cash of over $40m at 31 December 2008, as well as a deal with Arcadia that should carry Desire at no cost through two wells. What's more, some 50 per cent of Desire's acreage is at least partially proven by the 1998 drilling campaign.

...AND OUTSIDERS

Rockhopper has announced the first Falklands discovery, which significantly upgrades the prospectivity of its North basin acreage, although it will need to conclude a farm-out deal and/or raise funds before it can drill a well.

Borders & Southern has completed extensive three-dimensional seismic reviews of potentially very large fold structures, and identified prospects, but also needs to conclude a farm-out deal and/or raise funds before it can drill a well.
Current plans suggest the next round of Falklands exploration will see six wells drilled in each of the North and South basins, but rig availability remains the single biggest hurdle to exploration of the South Atlantic. With keen exploration activity offshore Brazil and Africa, and continuing in the North Sea, rig contractors able to command high rates for multi-year contracts have had little incentive to release a rig to the Falklands. A Falklands contract would most probably cover less than a year, even if explorers collaborated and shared a rig, which looks the only commercially viable option given the high costs of mobilising a rig to and from the Falklands.

Fortunately for the explorers, demand for rigs has fallen recently with the oil price. Although the oil price has risen again in recent weeks, costs have yet to follow, which creates a window of opportunity. For the first time since Rockhopper floated in 2005, managing director Sam Moody is confident of being able to secure a rig.
The modest depths of Rockhopper's North basin licences will require no more than a semi-submersible rig, which Mr Moody estimates has fallen in cost to around $280,000 per day from a high of $450,000 per day last year. Given the similarities of their North basin licences, any rig secured by Rockhopper could be shared with Desire, and vice versa.

The rig requirements of the South basin explorers are more exacting. The greater water depths will demand either a dynamically-positioned, high-specification semi-submersible rig or a drill ship, of which there are only estimated to be around 25 to 30 in the world.

Rig slots are becoming available from late 2009, particularly for rigs suitable for the less demanding North basin, which suggests drilling should be possible from 2010. The 1998 wells were drilled in the southern hemisphere winter, which suggests that drilling, at least in the North basin, is possible throughout the year.

The four Aim companies aren't the only ones interested in drilling near the Falklands. In international waters to the west of the licences they hold, a consortium led by Spanish firm Repsol - which also includes Petrobras and BP-controlled Pan American Energy - is assessing a potential drilling campaign in two blocks. Lying to the west of, and on trend with, Borders' licence area, any success that this heavyweight group enjoys, including just drilling a well, will provide a great boost to Borders' prospects.


WHAT DO WE THINK?
The four Aim explorers offer investors the chance to participate in high impact exploration of one of the world's most alluring frontier oil and gas regions. All four offer massive upside potential, although the chance of total failure is also significant. Logistics remain the principal challenge in such a remote location, although any success in either basin is likely to prove enormous. Oil and gas fields in large frontier basins tend to behave like herd animals: the explorers are likely either to find nothing or they will find a lot.

http://www.ogj.com/index/article-display/364559/s-articles/s-oil-gas-journal/s-volume-107/s-issue-23/s-regular-features/s-ogj-newsletter.html

Repsol YPF consortium to explore off Falklands

A consortium led by Repsol YPF SA plans oil and gas exploration in international waters off the Falkland Islands beginning in early 2010.

Repsol YPF executives disclosed no project details. In 2006, Repsol and Energia Argentina SA (Enarsa) signed two agreements to explore and develop oil and gas off Argentina.

The first is a 10-year strategic agreement covering all areas 100% owned by Repsol or Enarsa off Argentina within three zones of interest from the Uruguay border to the Falkland Islands.

The second agreement establishes a consortium specifically to explore the Colorado Marina basin. Consortium members are Enarsa, Repsol, Petrobras, and Petrouruguay.

Repsol operates the area with 35% interest while Enarsa holds 35%, Petrobras 25%, and Petrouruguay 5%.

Argentina and Britain both claim large areas of the seabed around the islands.

Britain lodged a claim for 1.2 million sq km in May. Argentina filed a claim for the same area in April with the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf.

British company Rockhopper Exploration PLC in May reclassified a 1998 North Falkland basin exploration well as a gas discovery with a 3.4 tcf mean contingent resource.

Shell Exploration & Production Southwest Atlantic BV drilled the 14/5-1A wildcat on the Sebald prospect to 4,525 m measured depth in 464 m of water (OGJ, Nov. 9, 1998, p. 44).

http://www.energycurrent.com/index.php?id=2&storyid=18948

Falklands would welcome Argentine oil and gas companies

http://www.firstbreak.org/content.php?section=3&id=4248&issue=329&TAB=2〈=

Falklands well reclassified as a gas discovery in Rockhopper Exploration acreage

A competent persons report by RPS Energy has provided a boost to UK AIM-listed company Rockhopper Exploration in its bid to develop potential resources in its licensed acreage in the North Falkland Basin. Highlights of the report are that there could be as many as eight oil prospects on Rockhopper acreage with a combined prospective resource of (unrisked) 1 billion barrels recoverable. In addition, a previous exploration well, 14/5-1A, drilled by Shell, has been classified as a gas discovery in the newly named Johnson structure with a possible 165 m net gas pay.In the report, RPS Energy has classified
the Johnson structure, which lies in approximately 500 m of water in licence PL032, as a contingent gas resource. This follows extensive re-interpretation by Rockhopper of well 14/5-1A (drilled by Shell in 1998) which encountered significant quantities of gas. Well 14/5-1A is now classified by RPS as a gas discovery. The 3D seismic collected by Rockhopper in 2007 demonstrates a previously unmapped structural closure (Johnson) which is penetrated by well 14/5-1A. In the final well report for 14/5-1A, Shell recognized 165 m of net pay. In addition to the contingent gas resource, RPS considered eight oil prospects on Rockhopper operated acreage and two on non-Rockhopper operated acreage. Those on Rockhopper operated acreage could contain a total P50 recoverable of 998 million barrels on an unrisked basis. In addition to those eight prospects, Rockhopper has mapped 15 additional prospects which were not considered by RPS as they are unlikely to be targeted in the first round of drilling. However, they do provide scope for significant additional upside in the event of an oil discovery in the basin, according to Rockhopper.Previous economic studies carried out for Rockhopper by Barrett Petroleum Services in 2004 and by Scott Pickford at the time of the admission to AIM indicate that the North Falkland Basin could be economically viable at oil prices as low as $30 per Barrel. RPS outlines the basis for two proven source rocks in the North Falkland Basin, one mature for oil, the other gas. The oil source is younger and shallower than the gas source.Basin modelling work in the northern part of the North Falkland Basin confirms that the Lower Cretaceous source rock, which generated the oil recovered in well 14/10-1, is likely to be mature over a larger area than previously
thought, extending just north of the northern most boundary of licence PL032. This result suggests that a large area of the Lower Cretaceous oil mature source rock is likely to be present throughout licence PL032. The source rock generating the gas recovered in well 14/5-1A is older than the Lower Cretaceous source and is believed by Rockhopper to be Jurassic or early Cretaceous. New basin modelling work in licences PL023 and PL024 indicates a higher probability of mature source rocks than previously thought and results indicate that these source rocks could be mature for oil and gas.Viewing the prospects for exploration drilling Rockhopper says the market for mid-water semi-submersible drilling rigs continues to ease with a number of units now available in the UK North Sea. In addition, day rates for suitable semi-submersible drilling rigs have fallen significantly over the past 12 months. Environmental Impact Statements have been submitted to the relevant authorities for all Rockhopper operated licences, while site survey work on the Ernest structure indicates no geohazards. Reprocessing of the short offset data on licences PL032 and PL033 for site survey purposes is now complete.Pierre Jungels, executive chairman of Rockhopper, said: The new RPS Energy competent persons report gives verification
of the broad spread of our portfolio. Not only do we have the first discovery and contingent resource declared in the Falkland Islands area, but also we have over 20 structural oil prospects, eight of which have been independently verified. This clearly demonstrates what the directors feel are the highly attractive prospects of Rockhopper. Johnson is now recognised as a contingent resource while Sea Lion and Ernest are now our foremost oil exploration targets, both with a 23% chance of success, not taking into account the positive controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM).

CANACCORD ADAMS STARTS ROCKHOPPER EXPLORATION WITH SPECULATIVE BUY
rating, target price of 67P

though that is a nice accolade - perhaps too strong a word - i would still have thought that either DES (i know you like those) or FOGL would be better, if one feels compelled to invest in falklands E&P oilies

Business Financial Newswire
"Rockhopper Exploration has agreed farm-in terms with a third-party energy company for one of its licences in the Falklands.

A further announcement including proposed terms will be made once approvals are in place.

Rockhopper has also welcomed yesterday's announcement by Desire Petroleum of its intention to hire a rig for a North Falkland Basin drilling campaign.

The company says it hopes to drill a minimum of two wells on its operated acreage. "

i guess you got in wrong again cynic,why dont you do one of your graphs to compare the prices.........now was it 12p i bought in at.

Yet more movement from one of the Falkland Oil Crew Companies..... Rockhopper Exploration.

Now I wonder if this will end up like the bus stop syndrome. You seem to wait for ages for one to come along, then what happens, three or more come at once.

thats only 700% increase markymar........for this year only! cynic looks for 0.2% increase for a 1 hour holding......maybe 1 minute holding (thats 60secs and not a tiny one, lol)

take the piss and be as arrogant as you like.
for myself, i have no need to try the macho bit and buy squitty blue sky shares and then crow when they happen to come good - isn't hindsight great

you all seem to go very quiet about your stinkers though, but that is no surprise

at the moment, picking winners is definitely shooting rats in barrels ..... and profits of course, are only that when banked .... you probably haven't done that either

this is at almost all time high! so its hardly a stinker! wake up and smell the coffee

very selective reading
so you don't have any losers in your portfolio????????
and i take it you have not and will not be taking any profits here either

As reiterated in todays press, the oil majors such as Shell, BP, Exxon and the like are still desperate to boost their inventories, mainly due to the fact of low oil reserves on their books, but also due to intentionally over estimating for the last fews years in order to enhance their share prices.
As the Falkland field possiblefinds are being talked about in the same volume category as the BP and Chevron recent finds in Mexico how long will it be before the minnows such as Des/Fogl/Rock and the like are taken over.
IMHO the question won't be so much if as when. Will they wait till oil is pumping in sufficient quantities and risk loosing out to a competitor that jumps first or chance getting in on the ground, IE now.
Both strategy are a risk but which once will they take.

A rig being available is good news for the falkland stocks but like everything else it is only when they drill and test that we will be sure of anything, look at Gulfstone : they have discovered loads of oil and there are still doubters !....all in all good progress for the falklander oilies....I'm looking to invest at some stage but there are bound to be delays with drilling and such, so testing results next summer ? July....somewhere around there perhaps a bit before....the sp's are too high for me now..will have to wait for a retracement before taking any position....and then a long wait...the problem is that at the moment there are loads of successful small oil companies out there GPX, GKP, for instance plus all the main market mid caps...all doing well so I just can't cover them all. Anyway the South Atlantic will be a hot zone from 2010 onwards for small and big investors alike !.

Required field,

Agree with your comments.

Obviously there is a risk of waiting to jump in, but like you I feel there is bound to be a retracement of the sp, so imho I feel you are right to wait. The only reason I am not selling and buying back in (the only Falkland connected company I'm in is FKL) at a lower sp is due the the spread probably taking away any profit. But as you appear to be 'not yet in', obviously the spread is not yet for you a consideration. Best of luck on your timing.

Greek.

http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/display_news/article/north-falkland-basin-exploration-campaign-gathers-momentum-as-rockhopper-exploration-bags-a-farm-in/771.html

September 15, 2009

North Falkland Basin Exploration Campaign Gathers Momentum As Rockhopper Exploration Bags A Farm-In Partner And Desire Petroleum Secures That All-Important Rig





More than ten years after the first, and last, wells were drilled in the North Falkland Basin and the campaign to return to the islands is, at last, gaining traction. Shares in Rockhopper Exploration hit a new 52-week high last week as the company announced it had agreed farm-out terms with an unnamed energy company, a deal that should give the AIM firm the financial clout to drill at least two wells on its acreage next year.
And fellow AIM explorer Desire Petroleum also released welcome news to the market last week as it confirmed it has signed a letter of intent to hire the Ocean Guardian rig for a minimum four-well programme starting in February 2010. As long time Falklands followers will know, the chartering of a suitable rig on reasonable terms has been one of the biggest stumbling blocks to getting these remote waters drilled up, with rig mobilisation fees alone running into the many millions of dollars (earlier this year some operators in the Falklands were talking about eye-watering mobilisation fees of between US$10 million and US$50 million).


Now Desire has succeeded in signing a letter of intent with Diamond Offshore Drilling for a minimum four well programme in the North Falkland Basin. The rig, a third generation semi-submersible capable of drilling in waters 1,500 feet deep, is currently in the North Sea and will mobilise for Falkland waters in November, to reach the islands in early February 2010. Desire has options to drill a further four wells, either on its own account or for partners.

This means there are up to eight well slots for the taking in 2010. Given it has taken over ten years to get a rig back in the area, the operators in the North Falkland Basin should take full advantage of this opportunity in order to drill up this high prospective but little drilled area. Desire is already investigating fundraising options to help it make the most of the rig. We intend to explore as many play types as possible, thus maximising our chances of success, said Desires chairman Stephen Phipps, a comment that not only refers to one of the shortcomings of the 1998 drilling campaign, which tested only one play type, but also highlights the diversity of his companys prospect inventory.

Rockhopper certainly hopes to be one of the operators to take advantage of the Ocean Guardians arrival and last weeks farm-out news should ensure it has the financial clout to take up at least one well slot. Investors will now be keen to learn the identity of the anonymous energy company and to find out more about the terms of the deal: all that is known at present is that the farm-in partner has agreed to contribute, at a promote, to the costs of drilling one well on the licence and to certain back costs. Investors will want to know just what kind of investment the incoming partner will make in return for how much equity in the acreage in order to put a value on the deal. These details will also help investors crunch through the numbers to work out what kind of funding gap the AIM firm faces to drill up its acreage: Rockhopper has said it hopes to drill at least two wells using the Ocean Guardian.

Like Desire, the company has a wide range of prospects to choose from, including the Johnson structure, which is the only classified contingent resource in the Falklands. Johnson was drilled by Shell in 1998, finding 165 metres of net gas pay. When Rockhopper took over the acreage it undertook 3D seismic and extensive re-interpretation and cross-analysis with Shells findings to come up with a data set that according to a Competent Persons Report (CPR) from RPS Energy that shows recoverable contingent gas resources in the Johnson structure of 1.6 trillion cubic feet of gas, with a high estimate stretching up to 7.9 tcf. In addition to Johnson, Rockhopper also has over 20 structural oil prospects on its acreage, eight of which have been independently verified. Of these, the Sea Lion and Ernest oil prospects remain the leading candidates for drilling with prospective reserves of 170 million barrels and 156 million barrels of recoverable oil on a P50 basis, respectively.