Marchpole is one of those stocks which have had a really bad time. Boardroom battles, losses, price collapse, profit warnings up the ying yang.

Now all of those things seem to be sorted out, new management are getting to grips, new contracts and the price is on the up. So much so that Monday ought to see a 50/200 day MA golden cross.

DYOR of course, but I think I will be putting a few of these away at the open.

Socco

I was interested to note the number of trading statements MPH has issued so far this year.

21/01/04 07:30 MARCHPOLE (MPH) Marchpole Holdings says Q3 performance ahead of internal expectations AFX

25/05/04 07:59 MARCHPOLE HLDGS (MPH) UK smallcap opening - Marchpole up after bumper FY results & div resumption

15/07/04 08:30 MARCHPOLE HLDGS (MPH) UK smallcap opening - Marchpole gains after upbeat statement

08/09/04 12:01 MARCHPOLE HLDGS (MPH) Marchpole says trading in the second quarter ahead of company expectations

12/10/04 07:27 MARCHPOLE HLDGS (MPH) Marchpole Holdings trading performance 'continues above expectations'

Thier price has to look cheap! They have issued results that are excellent since beiong valued at 30p + . They seem to be in a period of assured performance so you would expect the price to rapidly pass previous and enter new territory.I do not think 40p is a wildly optomistic expectation for Xmas

agree...40p should be new year support

Not surprisingly, the MPH chart reacts to the postive trading statements with successive peaks at 21p, 26p and 35p. With the assumption that another bullish trading statement appears early 2005 (which seems a reasonable expectation), this should then take the price to 42p to 45p range, before settling back to around 40p. I've taken a cfd at 27p which I view as a home banker!

Eric

Eric,
who do you get a cfd on AIM companies through?

016622

blue index. Ring 020 7398 2563 and speak to Bob Kondal who used to write the cfd column in Shares. The ratio is typically 3:1 rather than 10:1 for blue chips. Trading also seems to be restricted to the margin of the spread, so probably not to be used if volume is low or spread large. It takes a week or so to set up. Let me know if I can help further. johngtudor has been my guide in getting started, who you can meet on the ASC bb. In fact we have just discussed this very subject there as MPH is an ASC Challenge Portfolio stock.

Good recovery today - I suspect it will keep going fiven the share is so cheap against the fundamentals.

Eric

Another good day for MPH, will be interesting to see if we get any press coverage over the weekend. Share is still very cheap at these levels.

Eric, congrats on your buy this Tuesday, timed it very well!

dawsinho

Thanks for that! Very comfortable to be in MPH - been watching it for a while, with help of this column, and couldn't believe my luck when the price came back so far. Very cheap on the fundamentals. Need johngtudor to comment on the head and shoulders!

Eric

Eric: Do not see the 'Head & Shoulders'. Please elucidate? John

Sorry, John. My head has only one shoulder at the moment! Presumably if the recovery gives a lower high then we could be in trouble - we do seem to have a neck line which we don't want to break if the right shoulder does form. Is that better? I said that a little knowledge was a dangerous thing! Anyway, it would be helpful to have your gneral comments on the charts. I suspect that they do not yet say that the share has bottomed out.

Eric

Eric, thanks very much for your note on CFC's, I shall call Bob and let you know how I get on.
Thanks Again.

Eric, I saw what could turn out to be a nice head and shoulders if things pan out with the short term 40p target. A return to 32.5, retest 30 and that would give us the 8p (depth of the head) to 40p!
Sounds good on paper....

Covered my dcb trade +2.75

lost me Big Al....but always keen to learn if you have time?

016622

Made the trade a couple of days ago on the basis it was very oversold and produced a hammer, i.e. open/close fairly close, but had a big intraday dip. It also happened to be support around 22p. This is often a good sign of a bounce and that's happened this past couple of days. However, the risk is now it reverses at the falling trendline and could be a dcb (dead cat bounce), i.e. it could fall again. Decided to take profits there.

Hope it helps.

dcb was the item I missed, the rest I followed... thanks for your time Al!

Making steady progress again this morning. We are now approaching the area where Morris bought more stock at 27.5 and 29p. We have a forward PE of under 9 which for a growth stock is far too low. Enjoy the ride!

I have also had a look back to see when Man Financial Limited announced their stake. The price was then between 29.5 and 30.5. What we cannot determine is what they actually paid.

Marchpole Holdings PLC
28 September 2004

The Company was notified on 24 September 2004 that Man Financial Limited, a
member of Man Group PLC, is the beneficial holder of 5,395,000 ordinary shares
of 1p each in the Company, representing 4.07 per cent. of the issued share
capital of the Company.

PRICES
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close
1-Oct-04 32.25 32.25 31.25 31.50 1,038,420 31.50
30-Sep-04 32.25 32.25 31.00 32.41 762,923 32.41
29-Sep-04 31.50 33.00 31.50 32.50 2,214,900 32.50
28-Sep-04 29.75 31.50 29.50 31.50 1,444,540 31.50
27-Sep-04 29.75 30.00 29.75 29.75 850,797 29.75
24-Sep-04 30.75 30.75 30.00 29.75 520,491 29.75
23-Sep-04 29.50 30.75 29.50 30.50 2,612,980 30.50
22-Sep-04 30.50 30.50 29.50 29.50 1,337,380 29.50
21-Sep-04 29.25 31.25 29.25 30.25 5,332,780 30.25
20-Sep-04 28.00 30.00 28.00 28.66 3,281,180 28.

I was always taught to buy into well managed companies. That's just what we have with MPH. They have delivered the goods so far and continue to move forward aggressively. It's too easy to forget how positive they have become.

09/11/04
"Marchpole Holdings PLC, which designs, produces and sells clothing and accessories for six world class brands including Yves Saint Laurent, Boateng and Jean-Charles de Castelbajac, said its continuing success will be reflected in results for the full year.

The comments came alongside strong figures for the six months ended Oct 2 2004 which showed profit before tax up 216 pct to 2.5 mln stg from 0.8 mln on turnover up 97 pct to 15.7 mln stg from 8.0 mln.

Operating profit was up 194 pct to 2.6 mln stg.

The board also declared an interim dividend of 0.25 pence, compared with nil a year earlier.
...
With these results, including the first season of JCC, and the new licence with Emanuel Ungaro in September the group is fulfilling its strategy of developing new brands and expanding the business -- a strategy which it intends to continue. The board said it is also currently in discussion with third parties to advance new opportunities both in terms of licensing and brand acquisitions."

Nice run up this week. General feeling that the fall was overdone, and it has been proven to be a popular buying opportunity. Expectation of a climb back into the thirties in the next few days.