Stockdog,

What do you think of the latest results??

I thought they were ok. Quite positive outlook from the Company!!
The retail sector seems to be improving. Like-for-like sales figures still down from '04 but then again that was going to be very difficult as 2004 was an exceptional year!
One point is that as long as nothing nasty happens in the High street, the next set of results can only look positive compared with 2005...!

The Gross margin is improving which is important + store openings are going ahead as planned so maybe 2006 will be a great year for Topps Tiles!
.....and as was hinted in the press, Topps Tiles might well become a Takeover Target within 12 months.

If that's the case, what's a reasonable Takeout price in your opinion?? 3-3.50?

Thanks for replying.

Oddie

queen1 - in general you are right, but I would counter that by suggesting folk do volume tiling when adding extensions - and these were popular when folk could borrow against the home ( second Mortgages, used for holidays and extensions).
-if this is correct and represented the bulk of Tops sales, then the current situation is far different.....with second mortgages the stuff of dreams and so on.

Sadly I think folk won't be buying tiles in bulk, ( gloss-paint maybe), but tiles have an amazing life, being so hard-wearing. Perhaps Topps needs to diversify, offering a wider range of refurbishment products, albeit in a smaller depth. Difficult to do in hard times, but better than doing nowt.

Look at the growth of Screwfix, to see a winning formula!

Let's hope I'm wrong, eh?

hangon-------- re screwfix, KGF own them and whilst screwfix themselves may be doing well (I have no idea), they aren't helping the KGF sp much.
2517

Fair points hangon. I've been in TPT twice in the past, both forays having been very profitable, and am considering a third go. Just trying to judge the bottom!

Well no doubt I'll have judged it wrong but I'm back in TPT. Let's hope they'll be profitable for me a third time!

Currently c.40p so the Directors were wrong! 75p- Ouch!
But no doubt they get some Options, or maybe 1+1, so we should never feel too bad about it. Considering how shareholders have fayred, Dirs are still being over-paid....factor 2x, 3x maybe ( Pensioners receive 6k pa, for living, rent, food, fuel, and clothing -pathetic really).

"When is the Low" - I agreee it's difficult to find - since by the time you really feel "better", plenty of others have pushed-up the price.

But "now" is not the time - look at the Banks pathetic efforts to grab shareholders for another round of "prop-up" money, much of which will go to Directors for meeting Targets ( of raising money at any price!)...Oh dear.

( Wisper:- TPT "bottom" will be when it reaches 21p mid., )

Only IMHO - - me and my big mouth, sorry folks.

I hope not hangon!

Hi All .................

How come you've gone all quiet ................. since the sp started creeping up?

I really enjoyed your exchange of views.

Now watching, with a mind to buy in.

More thoughts welcome.

Cheers
Amar

Sorry, I've been concentrating on my nose bleed, such dizzy heights for TPT. Seriously, I believe we will need to sit through the whole process of consumer weakness which may take anything up to 3 years to complete, and there are many nasty surprises instore (pun) for the average consumer. AIMO of course.
2517

Shares Mag has been a long-time fan of TPT but even they are saying sell now. So, to my mind, with most saying sell, now is the time to buy! A little like the peak reached of 300p for TPT. At that time everyone was saying buy. With hindsight, the smart thing to have done would have been to have sold!

sell down to 15p this is ex growth.

will this bounce?

Not if it joins the 90% fallers club.

Lump this stock in with Heywood Williams ( building accessories) and you have a belweather for the home-improvement/construction markets.

Unfortunately these are closely linked, mostly by the jobs-market and general fear.

I suspect this will fall further, at least until sales pick up - and - I guess most women will prefer to wear some new item as "feel-good" long before they suggest hubby strips the Bathroom, creates dust in preparation for new wall-tiles.

Unfortunately for tile-sales the product lasts nearly 100-years, so there is little in the way of "repeat-business" - hence I suspect they could use smaller outlets, reduce overheads, stock, etc.
However, Topps has always been ahead of the pack, so this is likley to be the first to benefit from any up-turn, provided they can stay the course.
- 25p soon, I fear...

split the difference say 20p would be fair value I am not impressed with Topps stores small and badly laid out.

22p now and I reckon 15p before Xmas they are going the same way as DSGI imo

Either it will go bankrupt or be taek over by a bigger tile company.

Mitzy, - a bigger tile co? Not aware of one, although some Spanish Co's must be - but, by doing nothing, (if Topps goes), they'll have whatever business they like, better to wait for Admin and pick the bones over.
HOWEVER, I'm not aware that Topps is heavily in debt - is this the case (ie payment for the Store-expansion)....weren't these profitable from Day-1? If so, then they've had quite a few years to repay....hence the high sp prior to the general Market-fall . . . . need to look at the detailed Accounts. Do you hold?

Today's Ann indicates Debt has been negotiated until 2012 and whilst at 92m it is high compared with the sp, that is "Markets"...the historic sp being much greater. So, what do you think?

Hi hangon.

I remember saying in January when the sp was 80p that it would fall to 20p by the year end so I was right there its the debt that worries me thats why I think it could fall to 6/7p .. perhaps a Spanish co will bid for them at some point..

I still hold these and sat on a large loss, hopefully the following extract will give some support :-Despite cutting their profit forecasts, analysts at KBC Peel Hunt reckon Topps Tiles has the potential to halve its net debt over the next three years.

'We believe Topps Tiles would still generate cash at a like-for-like sales decline of 27 percent, a point which gives us tremendous confidence in the outlook for the business,' they told clients in a note.
2517

Thanks folks, I wonder if Mitzy is right (and wrong at the same time)...?
Right that it's the Debt...despite Co telling us such things are OK
Wrong that it not the "debt itself", rather it's "the Banks" that find themselves unable to keep promises...they will recall a Loan at the drop of a hat (er, so it might seem).
It is this "uncertainty" that makes the Debt a problem, not the "Debt" itself.

Er, if that's clear...?



2517George, I'm not sure that 27% decline is spot-on ...odd number isn't it? I suspect that turnover is not the issue, rather it's Profits - and these are "made" on the little bit extra - so I suspect "profits" will suffer far more than sales decline,,,,and it will be this figure that Banks focus-on . . . .hence some shareholders are ahead of the game. Sorry to read yr loss, - if you believe in the Co (regarding the Debt reality), I guess you need to blow 10% of yr investment at "the bottom" which has a huge effect on yr Average.
I suspect it will be a long time before we see the peaks of 2007, when the Market was trying to deny things were bad....er, IMHO.

EDIT 27/28Nov08) Director-buying at 18-p ish up to 650k-worth. Well I don't know what this means - has the business suddenly found a whole wave of new customers?
Still, it shows these Directors are well-paid. These Buys have raised the sp 25% from an all-time Low . . . . . . . Currently 25p.