anyone got any ideas about the block trades that went through today?

website: http://www.sterlingenergyplc.com/



weather: www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084938.shtml?50wind120

I'm sure you all heard the news yesterday from Goldman's re the possible oil price spike to $105 bbl, but for those that may have missed it, thought I'd post the piece.

NEW YORK (AFX) - Oil prices are rising enough to begin to meaningfully
reduce energy consumption, Goldman Sachs analysts said Thursday, predicting
per-barrel trading is in the early stages of what it called a "super spike"
period.

Oil prices could reach $105 per barrel, up from a previous $80 estimate,
according to Goldman's research note.
"The strength in oil demand and economic growth, especially in the United States
and China, following a year of $40-$50 per barrel WTI oil has surprised us...

The reason for this adjustment in view is that persistent high prices are
improving the financial position of key oil exporting countries and could serve
to keep potential revolution at bay," said analyst Arjun Murti.
Crude-oil prices climbed sharply, touching a one-week high of $55.55. The
contract for May deliver was last up 2.1 percent at $55.10.

Goldman raised spot forecasts for WTI spot oil to $50 for 2005 and $55 for2006.
Murti also said earnings consensus for oil and gas companies ought to grow by 21
percent and 35 percent, respectively in 2005 and 2006, as those stocks stand to
outperform the broader market.
"We believe the sector has as much as 80 percent total return potential upside
to super-spike-adjusted peak values that correspond to a scenario that assumes a
100 percent probability of a super spike," he said.
Murti recommends adding to positions in the oil sector "at current prices, on a
pullback, or even after rallies," and raised 2005 and 2006 earnings estimates
across the board.

His top picks in the sector continue to be Exxon Mobil , Amerada Hess , Bill
Barrett Corp. , Devon Energy , EnCana Corp. , Murphy Oil , Newfield
Exploration , Pioneer Natural Resources , Premcor , Questar Corp. and
Suncor Energy .

Gav,

Thanks for the info!

Well some tasty looking trades again today, and some look like sells, but as long as the price holds up, I've stopped worrying about them.

Best to wait and see what the end of year rep[ort brings.

From what I have seen most predict a 3.9 mill profit.

If so that is up substantially and good for us.

Looking at the trades can be a bit frightening!!!

i agree, better to just watch the price rather than the trades, provided the price is rising, over the longer temr, intraday doesnt matter..

i love coming back to this thread...

anyway, what is going on, NOTHING. without being accused as a ramper, i think this is the calm before the storm. the newsflow should speed up and hopefully the sp as well.

ok, i do sound like a ramper, sorry!

Results should be out early May, 7th last year, so that may be the next news we get.

cheers gavdfc.
hopefully something substantial to report then.

Would be nice. Of course, a drilling update always goes down well! Just heard on CNBC that the Saudi's plan to pump more oil to help ease prices. Yeah right, heard that one before!

Gav,

Yes I would imagine we will test the 20p resistance as results approach.

I feel the results will surprise to the upside, and we will see some T trades once we are within range.

Sorry - lost contact as my youngest downloaded a load of malware.

Back in now.

I was trying to write about Shell going for Woodside according to UBS and Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=ayIZ9mDK2VsU&refer=uk

The point is this will be Shell's second attempt if that is a correct report.

Obviously they are after replenishing their reserves, as predicted at the time of the Shell scandal. The point being if they are successful with Woodside, and quite honestly, I doubt they will be, then Woodside holds 10% of Hardman Resources, and share Mauritanian Licences for the bigger fields found so far.

In any event, I now predict that Hardman, BG and Sterling will be swiped by Shell, sooner rather than later, regardless of whether they succeed with their alleged approach to Woodside.

Some thoughts for you to think about.

Andy, heres's hoping on both counts! Evo and Oriel were estimating PBT for 2004E of between 3.7m and 4.2m. The results in May will be very interesting to see. They have 2005E of 14.3m and 17.1m.

SWW, thanks for the link, interesting stuff. We know that Shell have a bit of reserves problems over the last year or so, so going for a takeover to shore up their reserves makes sense. I definitely feel that consolidation in the sector is inevitable. Who, how much and when will be the interesting part!

Almost all oil stocks on my watchlist are up, many above 5%, but Sterling Energy! Why is this one sleep?
How long more can it rest?

Dunno but SHEL has had 137 millionn buys today.................

Oil producers in general are in favour in reaction to the latest crude prices. But exploration shells are pretty stagnant. Sterling falls somewhat in between I think, although long-term very nicely positioned to take advantage of low capital expansion of its production activities into a strong price for the foreseeable future. Patience required. 1% a day or 250% in one day comes to the same overall profit.

wise words grasshopper...

sorry, please take that in jest..i just just envisage "wise words..patience required, 1% a day or 250% in a year..patience my son"

rgds
PT

PT - no apology required. Not familiar with grasshopper concept, but know fleas well. Boy, can they jump - at least 250%!

woof, woof

:D

SD

it was more a reference to th egreat TV show Kung Fu - taking about wize words and proverbs!

flea works just as well in a funny way!

I think on reflection grasshopper works better - not sure about "Wise words flea". Seems to lack a certain something.

prop we are all far too young to remember that program.............