is this a good price to buy into this co ,been in and out afew time for small profit but we haVe not seen these lows for some time .they seem to haVe a good slice of the action ,or am I missing something.

You are missing something.

Wait and I will fill in asap.

Posted on TMF

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9660360&sort=whole#9661546

Hi all,

Here's a copy of Woodies's presentation today if anyone is interested in having a read. On client site, so can't download it to read due to download size restriction...

Value Creation Session:
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20051116/pdf/00567680.pdf

Value Deliver Session:
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20051116/pdf/00567681.pdf

Delivering Growth:
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20051116/pdf/00567679.pdf

RG/linco, thanks for your replies. Will post later.

In short, market simply panicked into selling today - with enormous volume traded by lunch time (over 5 million). Speaking to a few other fellow sufferers, it would appear that Woodies has stated that a decision on Tiof has been postponed till Q2 2006 subject to further appraisal drilling. I believe Doris Engineering report emcompassed options of large variance in recovery factors as well as required capex commitment. So it's not so much Woodies "bad-mouthing" Tiof, but simply stating that they need to take a prudent approach with minimal risk taken. Bearing in mind each appraisal well they drill can be used as future producers, as long as they can get it to flow properly.

I can't seem to find the post, but I believe it was Peter who, after attending to ROC's presentation in the UK, pointed out that they had already scheduled appraisals for Tiof going into 2006 citing complex reservoir. Peter also made a good point that the longer Tiof is delayed, the more money they will have in their pocket from Chinguetti - which ultimately means that they will need to do a smaller raise. IMHO, capital raising is not a question of if, but how much. Even for a phased development, we'd still be looking at 300 million (our share) minimum. Given their capex commitment elsewhere (Uganda, Guyane and Falklands + entering new acreage), I can't see them generating sufficient working capital from Chinguetti to cover that sum. It is after Tiof comes on line for a year or so that they will start to generate enough cashflow to be self-sufficient.

So how am I holding up? As well as this time last year. Same sh*t, different year really. Blown a couple of 100k in 6 weeks, which is not nice but I refused to be panicked into selling. Of the top of my head, the market seems to have risked Tiof at a COS of around 40%. Will post more on that later when I have analysed the numbers more.


My target is 70-75p and I can see that coming up in the headlights. I do of course reserve the right to change my mind about any of the above at any time.

RG, You might have to change your mind.... and revise it to 60-65 if history repeats itself again. I recall that was the level it dropped to last year when doubts over Tiof flared (unfortunately pun) after Tiof-3 problem.

On the subject of little Aussie E&P's I have built up holdings in Baraka and Samson - (about 10% in each).

Yap, have 15-20% holdings in VPE, which equates to approx 2% indirect holdings in Samson. Never bought Baraka although I have looked at it (and even mentioned it here) a few times. I recently purchased Beach Petroleum during the O&G sector pullback. When I get the chance to rotate some funds, I'm looking to possibly buy into those with enormous exposure to the gas market in the US (Tomahawk, Petsec, First Australian Resource [ASX:FAR], etc). Like a few others here, I am bullish US gas price over the medium to long term, with my expectation of HH price staying above US8-US10 over the next 10 years. What appeals to me is that a lot of Aussie players with exposure to US gas assets are still being valued at Aussie gas price of approx US2.50/mmbtu). Anyway, I won't let the cat out of the bag just yet. Will post more after I have researched deeper into it.

So I have ended up responding now anyway, sorry for the ill-structured response... oh well, that goes my lunch break! :(

*tummy grumbling...*

618

&

Hi all,

Thanks for your kind words of sympathy, etc. Like the wise old saying goes "Easy come, easy go". What follows below is not an attention or sympathy seeking post, but it is an honest, self-critique of my failure to see this coming, and what I will learn from this. Please respect this and do not rec this post. Just pay attention so that you keep this post in mind when you next read what I write.

To be honest, it is a very sobering, humbling, and depressing experience to be this wrong about a stock I am supposed to know quite well. At least I thought I did anyway. I'm not depressed about the size of the paper loss. Gosh, I have made enough money out of Hardman to never justify me complaining about their performance. In fact, I'm surprisingly calm given the beating I have copped in the last 6-8 weeks. I suppose if you get your head kicked in everyday, you'd get used to the pain after a while :) What I am kicking myself for is my apparent lack of judgement for its performance even though I know so much about this stock; and my apparent lack of ability to emotionally detach myself from this stock, and execute a bl**dy sell order.

I so clearly recall the following thread when discussing the risk/reward profile of Hardman, and how it would be different this year in comparison to last year...

Firstly, there was this post... http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9461161

I will not be selling in the next 12 months (well, nothing worth mentioning about anyway) as I can see a pipeline full of material events coming through...

* Drilling of up 6 exploration wells, with my expectation of Sotto being spudded next week
* FPSO arriving in Chinguetti early Sept 05
* Drilling of 2-3 appraisal wells - 2 at Tiof and 1 east of Banda late 05
* Hardman completes their hedging obligations by Oct/Nov 05
* Drilling of mputa-1 in Uganda in Dec 05
* All subsea equipments connected to well head on the Berge by Dec, with production commencing Jan 06
* Declaration of commerciaity for Tiof around Mar 06
* Drilling of commitment well in Guyane around Apr 06
* Drilling of Tiof development wells commecing Q3 06
* Advancement of up to 10 leads to prospect status in Falklands by Q3 06

This was then followed by http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9572643 ...

The first 2 dry holes has altered by view of Mauritania as a future oil province slightly. And at current price, it does represent a bit of exploration premium, which on current success rate, does not seem to be justifiable. However, I believe with Faucon and the TBA Block 6 prospect to be drilled, as well as the 2-3 wells in Uganda, and the wildcat (not Matamata) in Guyane, there is sufficient exploration drilling in the pipeline to keep the market interested. In addition, although I acknowledge that Chinguetti is fully priced in on a NAV basis, the commencement of production will see a bit of re-rating due to institution buying, as was illustrated by the increase in Westpac holding to over 5%. This is because of the persisting high oil price, and as such, the projected cashflow/earnings will justify a higher SP.


Yes, to some degree, no one could have expected the extent of the fallout from the delay in Tiof's development. But it was me, same time last year, who pointed out that IMHO then, it was the uncertainty surrounding Tiof that triggered the mud slide then... http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9016271

While I agree that on momentum and sentiment alone, the three dusters played a part in the recent SP decline. However, my comments that it was doubts over the Tiof, rather than Merou that caused the aftershocks was because I had a risked value for Merou of 11c vs the actual fall of over 50c (1.95 to 1.38). The only justification I can come up with is one of two things removal of over-exuberant drilling premium AND doubts over the biggest component of their NAV Tiof.

This view was subsequently justified when Tiof-6 gushed and Hardman's SP recovered significantly.

To make matter worse, I had originally expected a decision on Tiof by end of 2005. Then I changed my expectation to Q1/2 2007 after reading Peter's post on ROC's presentation...

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9329298

* Declaration of commerciality for Tiof My previous expectation had been end of year. However, as per Peter's update from the Roc's presentation at the OilBarrel conference, At the Oilbarrel conference today Kevin Hird from ROC showed a slide showing appraisal on Tiof going on until at least 2007 (the slide only went up that far). When asked (by PhilElder I think?) why the appraisal period went on so long, he emphasised the complex geology, in comparison to Chinguetti as you have done (so he is in good company). As you say, this is clearly going to take some time, though a useful side effect will be that, hopefully, the development when it happens may be largely funded from Chinguetti cash flow.

Of course, the complexity of the Tiof geology may also mean that we shouldn't read too much into the excellent flow rate achieved from Tiof 6, conditions in the reservoir may vary across it. (see post http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9220818 ). Therefore, it is possible that Tiof may not be declared commercial until some time mid-2007. As a shareholder, I would much rather the JV take their time in gaining a better understanding of the geological structure and implement the best development plan (with higher recovery factor), then to spend $2 billion and screw up a 1 billion barrel oil field (in place reserves that is).

That is until I learnt about Doris Engineering's report, and the subsequent discussions with a few "in-the-know" people that an Early Development Plan was in play again. I believe it was a case of what I had wanted to believe, and not what I should have believed knowing what I knew.

So instead of seeing an overheated share price as a warning sign, I saw nothing but the positives, which just goes to show that knowing a stock well doesn't make one a smart/wise investor. In fact, it can be a total hindrance to one's objectivity. The art, IMHO, is to find a balance between what one needs to know to make an informed decisions, but not detailed enough to get too attached to the stock (I'm beyond help in that aspect).


Anyway, enough of that. I have now updated my NAV model to reflect a further drop in Tiof's CoS from 70% to 50%, as well as removing Labeidna from my NAV since it is most likely uncommercial...

Average Sell Price / Barrel (USD) $40.00ForEx $ 0.70No Of HDR Shares On Issue (Millions) 655Prospect Net Rev / Net Rev / Size COS HDR% HDR Unrisked Risked Bar(USD) Bar (AUD) (MBO) (MBO)Cash $0.21 $0.21Chinguetti $9 $12.8 123 100% 19.0% 23.4 $0.46 $0.46Tiof $4.5 $6.4 300 50% 21.6% 64.8 $0.63 $0.32Banda $4.5 $6.4 300 20% 24.3% 72.9 $0.71 $0.14Pelican $4.5 $6.4 120 0% 16.2% 19.4 $0.19 $0.00Tevet $9 $12.8 50 100% 21.6% 10.8 $0.21 $0.21Faucon $4.5 $6.4 250 10% 18.0% 45.0 $0.44 $0.04Colin $4.5 $6.4 250 15% 24.3% 60.7 $0.59 $0.09Remaining wells* $4.5 $6.4 400 10% 20.0% 80.0 $0.78 $0.08Lake Albert $4.5 $6.4 300 10% 50.0% 150.0 $1.47 $0.15Guyane Wildcat $4.5 $6.4 250 10% 40.0% 100.0 $0.98 $0.10Total $6.88 $1.80

This brings us a bit closer to the closing price today of 1.71. I suspect we may see further weakness as negative sentiment may drive the market to remove all exploration premium from Hardman, as irrational as that sounds, anything is possible with this stock.

ee, I'm sure you can work out from my NAV model the answer to your question. I won't answer it directly because I am not so sure either. IMHO, there's too many unknowns... a commercialised Banda will double/triple Hardman's reserves depending on whether you include/exclude Tiof's reserves. But until gas terms are finalised, you can't exactly allocate full value to the Banda reserves. At the same time, ignoring any undeveloped assets would give you such a low number that it might not actually be realistic.


Thanks to Philip_k on HC who found this article by an Intersuisse analyst on Woodside - http://seven.com.au/news/business/121741 ...

"...Intersuisse energy analyst Peter Arden said the company was in a strong position but he was surprised it [Woodside] was not talking up its Mauritanian enterprises more.

"I am at a loss to understand just why they are quite so cautious on it all ... it's not their normal style," he said.

"Maybe there is a good reason for that, maybe they have some corporate aspirations that they want to pursue - who knows."

Woodside operates in Mauritania through joint ventures with companies including Hardman Resources and Roc Oil...."


Anyway, that's enough from me for one day. Time to take a break from Hardman, and it's definitely time to start detaching myself from it, if possible.


Cheers all, you've been a wonderful audience/listening ears :)

618

Now you are up to date after you have waded through that lot.

Needless to say I agree with his comments and as such intend to leave Hardman on the shelf

thanks for that seawallwalker i didnt see that bought 4000 at 71 thought got them when they were down looks like they got me sold my V o g and placed some here hope for a bounce get me out

It's not the end of the world but anyone coming in needs to know the above.

I hope it does bounce, it will very long term imo, one good drill result and you are in.

Short term it has fallen too fast in the last couple of days so may bounce tomorrow.

In respect of VOG, some posters on TMF rate it as a hold, I don't know enough about it.

Posted by torneself on TMF, sums it up.

www.smh.com.au/news/xchange/g--owing-adds-up-to-lot-of-debt/2005/11/16/1132016860207.html?page=2

Small is relative

When bad news about a project affects a company's share price, it's all relative....For Woodside Petroleum, the proposed Tiof project near its Chinguetti joint venture development in Mauritania would be a nice feather in its cap.But for partner Hardman Resources, it's a core asset.

Woodside chief executive Don Voelte hinted yesterday the Tiof project was not guaranteed to proceed as previously assumed....Woodside shares fell 27c to $31.98 on a weak day for all oil and gas stocks....But Hardman shares fell 14.5c, or 8 per cent, to $1.71.

Voelte did note that Woodside rarely canned previously announced projects, citing the abandonment of its Blacktip gas project earlier this year as a rare example....

nice bounce today got me out with a small profit and the sun is shining .

And you bought back your VOG shares I hope?

I would advise to always check for comment and news on TMF before purchase or sell stock unless it is in free fall of course.

i did took my profit safely stashed 800 pounds for day trade going to haVe another go at Vog tomorrow they look to haVe the legs for it i haVe habit of following these oils as they go up buying as they rise and geting stuck at the top with only one way to go een 240 sbe 373 txo19.5 moi .8 gtl 10 pre 24 fto 10 lot of dead money there

Labeidna news now looks positive with side track, should they have gone for it, not able to reach thicker and more prospective zone!

Separate drill hole required.

Very encouraging, but the Australians have another agenda, I'm pos' on that!

VOG? Yes, went to the agm yesterday. It was interesting! Doesn't the West Medvezhye VOG block look small in relation to the Gazprom Medvezhye field next door?!

HNR has asked to be suspended due to Woodman considering offer for their 10% stake in Hardman.

Looks like a bidder in the wings, if it is then it will do some strange things to my holding!

PERTH (Dow Jones)--Australian oil and gas explorer and producer Hardman
Resources Ltd. (HDR.AU) said Thursday Woodside Petroleum Ltd. (WPL.AU) is
considering selling its stake in Hardman.
Woodside subsidiary Woodside Mauritania Investments Pty. Ltd. holds a 10.24%
stake in Hardman.
Hardman placed its shares under a trading halt Thursday until the sale is
completed or the commencement of trade on Monday.
"The trading halt is required as Hardman has been advised by Woodside
Petroleum Ltd. that its wholly owned subsidiary, Woodsided Mauritania
Investments Pty. Ltd., is considering the sale of its shareholding in Hardman
and will decide whether it wishes to do so over the course of the trading halt
period," said Hardman in a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange.

No bidder! And it has done strange things to my holding.

Which I won't go into here! :)

It'll come right on the night I'm sure, just got to find the right knight!

10% fall this week.... SP now looking good... I last sold these shares at over 1 and looking at the recent news think a recovery back is very much due. Anyone any ideas how much further these will fall???

Back in on these at just over 80p.

All north from here I suspect.

Posted by hooter on hotcopper.

From ABN Amro

Starts -

"Stock specifics

Hardman Resources

4Q05: Waiting for a Tiof time

Hardman was the worst-performing stock in our universe in 2005 on the back of a very unsuccessful drilling program in Mauritania . Tiof will dominate 1H06, in our view. We expect an announcement in the second quarter. 2006 exploration looks more promising.
Tiof - will it or won't it?

HDR had expected an announcement on the commerciality of the Tiof project before year-end. The operator (WPL) has postponed this decision until at least 2Q06. This is due to the very complex nature of the reservoir and the difficulty in formulating a development plan to maximise the recoverable reserves. We still forecast and value a multi-staged commercial development eventually culminating in recoverable reserves of 235mmbbl.
2006 exploration - small ones are more juicy

Through 2005, we remained sceptical about the prospectivity of the Cretaceous plays in Mauritania , but Labeidna confirms our view that the Miocene still offers considerable exploration upside from smaller pockets of oil. The shallower water 'Atwood Hunter' has been contracted to conduct the 2006 and 2007 drilling programs in the PSC A and B joint ventures areas. The initial wells in the 2006 program are set to be drilled in PSC A and should include the Kilbaro, Awatt and Colin/Colin Deep prospects. Unlike the 2005 'Stena Tay' program, the prospects in 2006 and 2007 should include more smaller, shallower, Miocene plays which have a much greater probability of success than the wells drilled in 2005. However, this rig is also not available until the second quarter.
Catalysts and valuation - Tiof the key catalyst over next nine months



In the meantime, we expect first production from Chinguetti in February 2006, which would provide the company with its first significant cash flow, and would remove some of the risk associated with the costs over-runs experienced in developing this cornerstone asset. We retain our A$2.10 target price with Tiof remaining central to the share price staying above this level. We also believe that HDR would be an interesting takeover target for a NOC interested more in long-term resource potential than short-term returns. Mauritania is likely to have sufficient gas to contemplate an export project, while the recoverable oil potential of Tiof would be boosted by applying a lower hurdle rate than that commonly used by an IOC such as WPL. PetroChina and ONGC would seem to be the two most likely candidates.
Security ExDate ExPrc Type ConvFac Delta"


I'm dribbling again..........

Production commences February 17th

"Production will begin Feb. 17 at the offshore Chinguetti oil field, located 65 kilometers (40 miles) west of Nouakchott in the Atlantic Ocean, said Aboubakr Ould Marouani, director of the state-run Mauritanian Hydrocarbon Company, which is charged with overseeing oil sales.

Oil will be loaded onto ships and exported beginning in mid-March, Marouani said.

The offshore field is operated by Woodside Energy of Australia.

Mauritanian officials say production is expected average about 75,000 barrels of oil a day for nine years."


ee(tmf)

looking to top up here soon, this price looks cheap in comparison to others in the sector that are running up on no production and dubious results!!

You are right there aimtrader.

Be aware of the dispute between Woodside and The Mauritainian Government, but I don't see that being much of a probelem.

It is under priced imo, it will become a t/o target if the Market does not allow it to be where it should be, and they will be cash rich once the production of oil flows.

Price of oil looks to average more than the $45 used to value the company so if you like it, watch this week and buy under 80p if you can.

I exopect it to advance for sure after the middle of the month.

Look to hold till after this years resultls, till next years if you can be patient lots happening over the next 12 months.

Looking cheap, bidding back in @ 78. Lets see what happens tomorrow.