June 2008 Presentation : Link here

March 2008 AST Write Up : Link TMF Post Ascent Article Archive Folder : Link to AST archive folder

Detailed Info on Italian Prospects : Link to post 2 (Explo.)

Detailed Info on Swiss Prospects : Link to post 3 (Explo.)

Detailed Info on Spanish Prospects : Link to post 4 (Prod. + Explo.)

Detailed Info on Dutch Prospects : Link to post 5 (Explo.)

Detailed Info on Hungarian Prospects : Link to post 6 (Prod + Explo.)

Detailed Info on Slovenia & Gabon Prospects : Link to post 7 (Explo.)



Web Site : http://www.ascentresources.co.uk

Email : info@ascentresources.co.uk

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Oil and Gas Guide for those who want to know more : Link to PDF file

halifax - year end SP.......thats what matters.

Ascent's big drills are all in the second half of 2008, so just be patient........... :) LOL

Just a quick go over some of this years events.


Italy - Po Valley.

Nobody was saying that success at Gazzatta-1 would add 30p, the comment was that if Gazzatta is a success, the SP for AST will likely be over 20p by year end. Gazzatta is just one of 6 major leads in the license that Ascent hold. In total in the license area (Cento Area 3 leads + Bastiglia Area 3 leads) is thought to be leads with potential for 1 Tcf of gas. Success at Gazzatta-1 will also firm up the chances of a few more hundred Bcf. I would see no reason why following Gazzatta-1 success that the whole company should not be valued at less than 20p, taking everything in. The 200m figure NPV from Otto is Australian dollars, 200m A$, and circa 94m GBP (Otto presentation link http://www.ottoenergy.com/media/Otto%20Energy%20Investor%20Presentation_17%20Dec%2007--.pdf )

Gazzata is "most likely" 130Bcf but with potential upside to 386Bcf

Don't forget, the potential of the Po Valley license is not just 1 drill 130 Bcf Gazzata, its up to 1 Tcf of gas, prime acerage Italy. Second drill, funded by Otto again 100% all being well, will be in early 2009.

The old Envoi document link is here http://www.envoi.co.uk/P136Ascent-PoValleySyn.pdf

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Peneszlek - Hungary.

The Dual Ex presentation ( http://www.dualexen.com/documents/presentations/DXE-2008-04-28.pdf ) makes things easy to work out. They utilise their net figure of 1.875 mmcfd as generating revenues of 400,000 US$ a month = 213,333 US$ per 1mmcfd)

So......as AST have 45.23% after divestment

Initial link up will be just PEN-104 - circa 3.4mmscfd which is net to Ascent of 1.54mmcfd = 328,532 US$ a month revenue (annualised = 1.97m/year)

Final link up later in 2008 will include PEN-9 and PEN-12 - output to be 5mmscfd which is net to Ascent of 2.261 mmcfd = 482,452 US$ a month revenue (annualised = 2.89m/year)


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By early summer, PEN-104 should be producing. By late summer the field should be producing with PEN-9 and PEN-12 added. Therefore, by late summer Ascent has a producing field in Hungary generating revenues of near 3m a year. There is considerable potential to upgrade this with further wells and it should not be unexpected that by end 2009 this is producing circa 6m a year in revenues net to Ascent.

Success at Gazzatta-1 would be very welcome news, and would be followed by a second drill fully paid for by Otto to test the "most likely" 116Bcf Rubiera prospect.

****************************

Talking of Hungary, shall we mention Bajsca......as permitting has been approved now.

Bajsca -

The initial reason that Ascent was listed on the market, Bajsca was a major hope that lots and lots of gas could be extracted by using new drilling and completion techniques on this old Hungarian gas field, and so, it could be rehabilitated, and as the production permits and infrastructure is there already, there is near instant cash flow on success.

So, what is Bajsca (part of Zala) ?

Immediate,quite simply, 1 Tcf of gas in total, so thats 380Bcf net to Ascent, of gas, in the ground, that will put onto immediate production on any success. If you take the total potential of Zala (Bajsca and potential Project B), the potential worth to Ascent is circa 2 billion Euro's end of the day.
So, lets hope the first two horizontal completions at Bajsca is a success, as this could dramatically increase the cash flow for Ascent, from the expected circa 3m a year from the Pen field in Hungary, to anything up to near 10m a year from a combination of Pen and Zala by end 2008 on an annualised basis, with tonnes of upside on both fields for 2009.


And then of course there is Switzerland, Netherlands (we should be due news soon on the divestment of the Netherlands offshore assets to Tullow, which will further add to the cash pile), Slovenia, Snozzle, Italy Frosinone (Anagni is just part of that), Italy Strangologalli, Spain- Rocamundo, even Gabon and the fact they have a share of a drilling company now.

As you'll notice drilling rig companies and oil services companies valuations are going crazy, as demand far outweighs supply. So its lucky, imv, that Ascent got into this drilling rig company when they did, as that investment alone has likely gone up in value by some margin already, and will continue to rise..........and thats ignoring the main reason it was taken, and that is quick, cheap and priority access to rigs whilst others suffer with long waiting times.

*****************************************

The SP is suffering, as a major holder liquidates their holding for cash, this has left Ascent with an overhang, very oversold and grossly undervalued. The SP will continue to suffer until this seller is clear, make no mistake there, however, the seller has so far refused to sell below 5p, and so as it stands now, circa 5p appears to be the bottom.

http://newsstore.smh.com.au/apps/previewDocument.ac?docID=GCA00836469OEL

From Otto 1Q cash flow statement :


"(iv)ITALY Po Valley Basin (Otto earning 50%)

The Bastiglia-Cento Permits are located in the Po Valley in Northern Italy. The Po Valley is a proven hydrocarbon Basin with over 13Tcf of gas and 342 MMbbls of oil discovered to date.

The Bastiglia- Cento Permit area is surrounded by a number of substantial oil and gas fields that are currently on production. There is a good infrastructure of roads and pipelines criss-crossing the permits.


Appendix 5B
As a result of Deltana Energy Limited ("Deltana") choosing not to exercise their option to acquire a 15% working interest from Otto before 31 March 2008, Otto will acquire the full 50% of the Bastiglia-Cento Exploration Permits from Ascent Resources Plc ("Ascent")

To earn the 50% interest, Otto :

- has contributed Euro.2.15 million (A$3.65 million) as a reimbursement of past costs and for the purchase of seismic data,

- has reimbursed Deltana for direct costs of A$400,000,

- will pay 100% of the first Euro 3.486 million(approx. A$ 6.5million) of the cost of drilling and testing the Gazzata-1 well and 50% of costs in excess of the Euro 3.486 million.

-in the event of a significant commercial gas discovery at Gazzata-1, Otto will also fund 100% of the cost of drilling and testing of a second well.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/article3864966.ece

Rumour of the day

Ascent Resources rose 0.125p to 5.375p on strong volume, despite revealing recently that its well in Hungary was full of carbon dioxide, not the methane that it was looking for. Drilling on a second well in Hungary starts this weekend and the belief is that this should be better. Other energy firms apparently want to buy the carbon dioxide.


And in case anyone is wondering why other companies are interested in buying the CO2 :

............Carbon dioxide can help extract oil and gas from depleted reservoirs and can increase the production of methane, the chief component of natural gas, from coal beds that can't be mined.

The petroleum industry has long used CO2 injection to get more oil from depleted reservoirs. If the pressure is high enough in these formations, the CO2 and oil become completely miscible, leading to highly efficient oil recovery.

At lower pressures CO2 displaces oil without mixing together to form a single fluid phase -- this is known as immiscible displacement. This too enhances recovery, by reducing the oil's viscosity and by swelling, as some fraction of the CO2 dissolves in the oil. While some of the carbon dioxide comes back up with the oil, much remains underground. Operations can be modified so that more of the CO2 remains underground after the enhanced-recovery project is complete............

L2 is 3 v 3 @ 6/6.5

LAND/KAUP and EVO on the offer at 6.5p


One Line Limits :

BUY 75K @ 6.4p

SELL 100K @ 6.2p


Certainly looks like the dumping is over for now.......overhang seriously reduced ?

.

Update :


L2 is now very blue and 4 v 3 @ 6.5/7.0



On Line Limits are :


BUY 37.5K @ 7p

SELL 150K @ 6.7p


Overhang now gone ?????????????

Certainly does appear as if the overhang is now perhaps clear.

RNS more bad news.

Just a minor disappointment thats all, thats why they did not even bother to announce the spud of the well, its just a tiny wildcat, thats all.. The Snozzle area, at 6p is probably worth around 0.1p valuation - eg its chicken feed.

The big drills start from now on, no more tin pot tiddly ones.

Bajsca........

Gazzatta.......

Hermrigen........

The biggies are the next up, and so, the fund and games commences soon. (Along with production from Penzlek too :) )

Worth a listen about future oil prices and the current situation :

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-0531-3a.asx

2008/05/31-3a Big Picture with Jim Puplava & John Loeffler - Part 1 05/31/2008

Shame they forget to mention Gazzatta-1 in the Po Valley due for spud around October. That one is real company maker potential, as in that area of Italy "gas in the ground" gets sold easily and for very good prices (as its a major gas producing area). A commercial find at Gazzatta could be sold, in the ground, for circa 100m sterling nett to Ascent. So its probably the real buzz on the exploration side going forward a few months.


http://www.oilbarrel.com:80/email_index.html?page=/news/article.html?body=1&key=oilbarrel_en:1212544883&feed=oilbarrel_en


04.06.2008

Shareholders Look Forward To Busy Year At Ascent Resources, With Plans For Multiple Wells And Hopes For Very Welcome Near-Term Gas Production

Its sometimes difficult to get a handle on Ascent Resources, with its portfolio of 20 projects stretched across six countries in Europe, but there is little doubt the AIM-quoted company promises to deliver plenty of newflow in the coming year. It has plans to drill up to ten wells over 2008-9 and intends to shore up its cash position by bringing projects in Hungary and Slovenia onstream later this year.

Investors will be hoping this newsflow puts some momentum behind the share price, which has suffered following the disappointment of last years Anagni-1 well in Italy. Initially there were hopes this well, drilled as a shallow geological assessment well, had, by chance, made a commercial oil strike. But when the well was later deepened and tested the results were, at best, enigmatic.

The well lost over 3,000 tonnes of drilling fluids during the complicated and over-budget drill through this high permeability and fractured reservoir and, when it was finally tested, produced mainly water. It is possible the well may have tapped into one of the many underground river systems in this part of Italy and the company now plans to shoot seismic updip of the Anagni-1 location later this year. The company believes the well was drilled in a less than optimal subsurface location on the flank of the Anagni structure and the seismic will help finalise the location for an appraisal well.

The other key projects in the Ascent portfolio involve the near-term production potential of its Hungarian and Slovenian properties. Last year Ascent sold off its producing interests in Romania and Spain and it would give investors some comfort to have that income replaced by gas production sooner rather than later.

Production from the Penzlek project in eastern Hungary is due later this year, with the PEN-104 well expected to start producing at around 4.7 million cubic feet per day. There is additional potential here, with the planned tie-in of the existing PEN-9 and PEN-12 wells not to mention a 100 sq km 3D seismic shoot that will cover the partially depleted Penzlek field, which is a candidate for re-development.

The company is also redeveloping the Bajcsa tight gas project in western Hungary. The Bajcsa field was originally brought on stream in 1961 and, to date, has produced some 16.6 billion cubic feet of gas from over 20 wells. The majority of the gas has come from the VII/b and III reservoirs, just two of the seven stacked reservoirs that make up the field. Current production levels are fairly minor. MOL and Ascent plan to drill horizontal recompletions from the existing vertical wellbores which should boost flowrates and drain gas from undepleted reservoirs. The exact increase in production wont be known until the partners get to work but last year chief executive Jeremy Eng hinted at an initial production rate of 2.8 million cf/d.

The company also plans to initiate a major redevelopment programme on its Slovenia properties. Here it holds a 45 per cent interest in the Petisovci Dolina oil and gas fields and a 15.75 per cent interest in the underlying Petisovci Globoki gas field. Originally discovered in 1942, the fields currently produce minor amounts of oil and gas but there are thought to be substantial additional reserves waiting to be tapped. Remaining 2P oil reserves in the P-D reservoirs are put at 10.7 million barrels with the gas-in-place resource in the deeper P-G reservoirs estimated to be around 579 bcf.

Ascent also plans to spud the Hermrigen exploration/appraisal well in Switzerland later this year. A well location has been agreed with the local town council, close to the original well, Hermrigen-1, drilled by Elf in 1982. It tested gas at an initial rate of 1.5 million cubic feet per day from reservoirs at 2,250 metres but failed to reach the primary target at 3,000 metres due to drilling complications. According to a competent persons report commissioned by Ascents farm-in partner Leni, the discovery is reckoned to hold between 10.7 and 21.2 billion cubic feet of gas. Six other prospects have been identified on the permit, which the CPR estimates to hold prospective resources of between 347.7 bcf and 676.5 bcf. Ascents MD Jeremy Eng last year said he believed the Swiss project had the potential to be a major central European gas play.

It could add up to a busy year for Ascent. With some good news from its Hungarian projects, bringing some very welcome cash flows onto the books, plus a firm spud date for a follow-up to the enigmatic Anagni-1, and investors could start to see the share price regain some strength.

Oh... and it looks like Pen-104 should be on production by end July according to DualEx.


http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/May2008/29/c5901.html

Hungary
-------
First production from the Penzlek field is targeted for late second
quarter / early third quarter of 2008. The PEN-104 well has been completed;
the short tie-in line has been installed; and the location is waiting for
delivery of the gas processing facility. In addition, the already drilled
PEN-9 and PEN-12 wells are planned to be re-entered once the required wellbore
permits have been obtained from the Hungarian government. The acquisition of
approximately 100 square km of 3D seismic in the Penzlek area is
contemplated for the 2nd half of 2008. Upon completion, it is anticipated that
several follow-up drilling locations may be identified. DualEx has a 37.5%
working interest in the 614,000 acre Nyirseg North and South Permits.

I see Paul Curtis has just taken over 3%........as he did recently in IPL too.

If Gazzata-1 strikes in the Po Valley, Paul and the rest of us will be making shed loads of money thats for sure.

If you take just Gazzata-1 then note this, and this was way back when gas prices were much lower :


Fiscal System - The taxation system in Italy compares very favourably with other politically stable oil producing countries. It is based on a simple Royalty/Tax model, a royalty of only 7% and total taxes, comprising Corporation Tax and a Regional Tax, of 37.5%. Importantly for small fields there is a tax exemption for the first 20 million cubic metres (700 mmcf) produced.

Transportation & Marketing By law, the Italian gas transportation system is open to all producers of Italian gas. Strict rules also apply to the transportation costs. Within the Bastiglia-Cento permits gas pipelines lie within a few kms of the identified prospect, thus affording easy access to any market (Ref: Montage). Gas prices in Italy currently work out at over 7.5 (US$ 10) per Mcf.

Economics Based on average flow rates in the area of 5 mmcfd per well, the minimum size needed to give a positive return on investment is only 2 Bcf. The most likely size for the Gazzata prospect alone is 130 Bcf which could generate an after tax NPV10% in excess of 250 million (US$ 340 million) and a rate of return of over 100%. The upside potential in both the Gazzata and Rubiera prospects, excluding any closures as yet undefined is, therefore, substantial. Selling the gas in the ground, which is possible in the region, would generate a similar return and without the investment of development!


So, work in current gas prices, and sale of it in the ground, and you get nigh on potential cash sale net to Ascent of 100m sterling.

A little bit of one asset worth in the ground around about 100m sterling to Ascent.........for a market cap of today - well, peanuts.

Buying AST at these prices is a gamble yes, but the odds are stacked in your favour, and the potential prize.....well........multiple multiple bagger from 5p levels.

(and then there is Anagni, and Switzerland, and Rubiera in the Po Valley, and and and and and...... :) )

Just looking through the latest Otto Energy presentation.

They assign to the Po Valley Cento License 2 main area's :


Mid reserve case (100Bcf recoverable) NPV10 of (in AST terms) circa 29p a share for Gazzata, and circa 20p a share for Rubiera. (for Otto (518m shares and options) its 0.35$ for Gazzata and 0.25$ for Rubiera).

You can listen to the presentation and see the new slides at the following link :

http://www.brr.com.au/event/46342


+++++++++

Now :

Gazzata to spud in early October.

Rubiera would be significantly derisked by Gazzata success.

Top case for Gazzata is 3 times the mid reserve case (so the math says up to 87p upside for AST for top size recoverable commercial find).

If you take it that Gazzata seriously dresisks Rubiera, the not only do you get the Gazzata upside kick in, but also the risk level reduces on Rubiera and that higher risked value also kicks in.

Quite a potential company maker for little old Ascent Resources.

RNS Number : 7321W
Ascent Resources PLC
16 June 2008




Ascent Resources plc / Epic: AST / Index: AIM / Sector: Oil and Gas

16th June 2008

Ascent Resources plc ('Ascent' or 'the Company')

Commences Seismic Acquisition on Frosinone permit


Ascent Resources plc, the AIM-traded oil and gas exploration and production company, is starting a 2-D seismic acquisition programme of approximately 30 km on its Frosinone Exploration Permit in the Latina Valley, onshore Italy. The new seismic acquisition will focus on the area up dip from the Anagni-1 well with an objective of establishing the presence of the key sealing faults. Depending on the results of the seismic interpretation an appraisal well location may be chosen.


This seismic acquisition programme follows the drilling of the Anagni-1 well, which penetrated a porous, reservoir quality, carbonate formation. The new seismic programme will be integrated with the Anagni well data to assist Ascent's technical team in evaluating the potential of the Anagni structure.


Ascent Managing Director Jeremy Eng said, 'The Anagni-1 results underpin the hydrocarbon potential of the region and represent the first stage of exploration for a new reservoir system in the Frosinone permit area. Seismic recorded at the time of drilling indicate that the well was drilled in a less than optimal subsurface location on the flank of the Anagni structure. However, traces of live oil were recovered both in core samples and during testing, which have provided enough encouragement for further exploration and evaluation of the permit's potential and hence the commencement of this seismic survey.'


The information contained in this announcement has been reviewed and approved by Gavin Ward, Ascent's Exploration Manager (member of the AAPG) and has 19 years relevant experience in the oil industry.

New Presentation :

http://www.ascentresources.co.uk/investor_information/Ascent_Corporate_Presentation_27062008.pdf



.

pp another one of your favourite duds.

Hardly a dud is it ?

I was first in at 9p, it rose all the way to over 32p, and has come back down to now 6p.

I have sold and purchased and sold numerous times in that period.

Its made me tonnes of money, and with a big position now at 6p levels, its going to make me loads of money again in the coming 12 months. Wait and see......


Trade shares..........not love them.

Watch the price of AST come December.............would you like to make a prediction and stick with it and be judged on it ????????

I will say certainly over 15p. Might even be over 30p.

Your predictions, that I can quote you on later this year ?????????

I find the new work programme interesting. It is an admission of the fact they need more cash to speed up the programme, but also an admission they will delay the programme so as not to raise money at crazy low prices. Likely to upset anyone with a large short.

Hermrigen is a high cost (being Swiss), higher side risk, high impact well. Not really what you should be concentrating on if cash is running tight, and so rightly, if disappointingly, its moved in 2009.

This could open the door for Anagni-2 now in late 2008, Anagni- being on a proven oil bearing structure, much lower cost, and still with potential high impact, it makes sense imv to move A-2 ahead of Hermrigen.

All in all very sensible decisions being made, but still with the high impact Gazzata well due to spud October. That well remains mean estimate gas in ground basis 33p a share to AST, or top side 99p a share to AST, its the kind of exploration needed to excite investors as they get their production side sorted out.