p/w of 10 with sales rising 20% YOY and turns around 80% of profit straight to cash worth 10 in my opinion thats why I bought it @ 550p the steal of the century ....

now out of its 90 day average heading toward 700p withing the month as understand the overhang of float shares out of the way

From The Times
October 11, 2007
Nick Hassell: Tempus

Exactly a year on, the break-up of GUS is looking dangerously like the FTSE 100 demerger that destroyed shareholder value.

Shares in Home Retail Group, the owner of Argos and Homebase, sit more than 2 per cent below the level at which they were spun off.

Experian, the credit reference agency which raised fresh equity on the split, has fared even worse: down nearly 10 per cent after yesterdays trading statement.

At first read, that update appeared anodyne. Organic sales growth of 6 per cent for the first half was modestly down on the 7 per cent reported for the first quarter, but that was much as expected. The company also confirmed it was on track to meet full-year forecasts.

But what troubled was the evidence that the toll of the US mortgage lending downturn has only worsened over the past three months. Organic growth in the US slowed to 3 per cent in the quarter to September 30, down from 7 per cent in the previous period. Trading at LowerMyBills, Experians US website that directs customers from search engines to potential loan providers continues to deteriorate. That operation is small in the context of Experians overall business it accounts for less than 5 per cent of group sales but it is worrying that management predicted in July that the first quarter should mark the lowpoint. That it has not triggers worrying associations with HSBCs Household operation, which found that, when the US sub-prime downturn took hold, its business did not behave as its models had predicted. Then there is Experians Fares joint venture, which draws half of its sales from new mortgage lending and accounts for 6 per cent of operating profits. Its performance was not split out, but recent job cuts at First American, its US majority owner, do not augur well.

The other concern is that Experians shares had been buoyed by the view that demerger had left it vulnerable to takeover. However, turbulent credit markets mean that prop has now disappeared.

That is not to say Experian will not fare well in a downturn. Tougher times create demand for increased cross-checking of a potential customers creditworthiness. It is also benefiting from a shift among its bank customers from loan acquisition to higher-margin activities such as cross-selling and credit collection. It is tempting to read yesterdays 7 per cent fall in the shares as punishment that Experian, unlike GUS, has overpromised and underdelivered. But at 16 times next years earnings, it is worth holding on.

Experian, the credit checking group, shed 12 to 476p after Morgan Stanley lowered its recommendation on the shares to equal-weight from overweight. Analyst Jessica Flounders also reduced her target price by 24pc to 560p, arguing that earnings were slowing and that a private equity takeover looked increasingly less likely because of the credit crunch.

Extract from recent RNS:

"Experian said market conditions are not expected to improve in the near term, but action on costs coupled with the variable nature of customer acquisition spend ensured the business remained profitable, albeit with lower margins.

The company announced a first interim dividend of 6.5 pence per share."

Sp is down 11% this morning. It would be interesting to know what the latest broker target is for this stock now.

A bit more info here http://moneyam.com/action/news/show/article?id=2428692

Agree H about latest BT. With their investments abroad.. worth keeping an eye on this lot.

Correction to the RNS. The divi is actually 6.5 cents per share!
"* Profit before tax of $285m. Benchmark profit before tax of $396m.
* Basic EPS of 22.2 cents. Benchmark EPS of 29.5 cents.
* First interim dividend increased by 18% to 6.5 cents per share.
* Net debt of $3.0bn after funding acquisitions of $1.7bn, mainly Serasa and
Hitwise."
Looks like the ex-divi date is mid December, but not certain.

The graph is no help with knowing where the bottom is, so remaining as a watcher for the moment & will try a little bottom fishing when the sp looks like it is due for a bounce.

EXPN target has been reduced.

Have you got a link to that news please H98?

Today on Digitallook.com Seymour Pierce have a HOLD rating with price target of 540p. Panmure Gordon have a BUY rating, with a 675p target.
The fact that they are so far apart in their rating leads me to believe that they don't really know where the sp is heading.

Director/PDMR Shareholding today, (Click on the News links for details.)

Wonder what he knows that we don't? he certainly didn't buy having looked at the chart I know.

This had a Director buying a few more recently. Also, given that the security issues of having 25m peoples details lost is going to have longer term repercussions, then now looks like EXPN could be a good medium term investment?
Just my 2p's worth....

Bought some of these last week, mainly on the basis that they have gone into Brazil (which has possibilities as a developing country), some rather large Director buying (despite poorish resent results or was it trading update?) they also carry No stamp Duty on purchase. Not sure how resent security issues will effect them Chris if at all but we shall see.

Hi, Stan. I dipped my toe in these this morning. Director buys are a good indicator. But I still don't think the full consequences of yesterdays announcement regarding loss of 25m peoples data has been realised yet. Some of the data will remain valid for life (eg DoB, NI #) whilst other details like address isn't going to change for most people in the short term. The consequencies are going to be there forever. Even if discs turn-up then there is no guarantee that they haven't been copied and returned. Credit checks will need to be enhanced and rapid responce credit report monitoring will become a norm for individuals. Perhaps because UK lost the most data first, then UK will unfortunately take the lead ..... but it'll become a necessity around the world as well.

With data such as was lost, if it does get in to pro fraudsters hands, then they might sit on it for a while and accumulate additional information before hitting the syatem with fraudulent transactions etc. If pro fraudsters have indeed got the info, then yesterdays date will be memorable...

PS: Given look on G.Browns face in the House of Commons yesterday when announcement was made, I think he's fairly aware of what longer term consequencies will be. .

"Credit checks will need to be enhanced and credit report monitoring will become a norm for individuals." Are yes I see your point, = more work for EXPN.

Well, I think it'll end up being a case of whole new procedures with credit checks .... plus individuals signed up to monitoring services will want to be notified of changes / searches etc as soon as possible - as provided by the premium subscription monitoring.....

Question time should interesting this afternoon -):

"The alarm bells will ring in every organisation" - that's the quote I've just heard from the Information Commissioner on the 10.00 radio news. He is aware of consequencies - he's been banging his head against the wall for quite a while already trying to raise awareness of possible problems...

Well, Experian just got a free plug on Sky News during Kay Burley interview with a security consultant. He said likely uptake of such credit monitoring facilities in UK would now increase. 'Nice' follow up from Kay was to ask him how people could enroll. Reasonably tight spread plus no stamp duty makes EXPN 'investor friendly'.

Excellent.

...And there's more http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/2007112310375537201.html